Good Ground Sets Up Cracking Card at Ascot
Right then, settle in with your pint because we've got ourselves a proper afternoon of National Hunt racing at the royal venue. Seven races on the Ascot racecard today, and with the going sitting nicely at good to soft for the chasers, conditions are absolutely spot on for some quality jumping action.
The ground's riding a treat after recent dry spells, and that's music to the ears of punters who know their onions. None of that bog-standard heavy going that turns races into lottery draws - today we can trust the form book and back horses with confidence. Ascot always presents a fair test, and these conditions will separate the wheat from the chaff across all seven contests.
Feature Race: £30k Virgin Bet Handicap Hurdle (15:20)
The day's feature is the Class 2 handicap hurdle worth £30,000, and what a cracking contest it promises to be. Eight runners line up over two miles and three furlongs, with the top-weighted duo of Knickerbockerglory and Aurigny Mill both carrying 138 ratings into battle.
Dan Skelton's Knickerbockerglory catches the eye immediately - this 10-year-old veteran knows his job inside out and has Harry Atkins in the saddle. At this level, experience counts for everything, and you'd be hard-pressed to find a more battle-hardened campaigner. The handicapper clearly respects this lad, but class is permanent, and on ground that'll suit his style, he's the one they all have to beat.
Aurigny Mill represents Robert Walford and looks the main danger on the same mark. Harry Kimber takes the ride on this nine-year-old, and you can't ignore a horse rated 138 in this grade. The Four Sixes drops in from Olly Murphy's yard with both course and distance form to his name - that's gold dust in a race like this, and Kevin Brogan knows exactly what he's got underneath him.
Key Runners to Follow
Beyond the feature, there's plenty to get excited about across the card. In the opening maiden hurdle, keep a close eye on Charlie Deutsch aboard Tommy Pickles for Jamie Snowden. This six-year-old carries the only rating in the field at 114, which tells you everything about his class advantage over these maidens.
The 3m 30y chase at 14:15 sees Joyeux Machin take top billing for the Skelton team again. This nine-year-old has been knocking on the door in decent company, and the step up in trip could be exactly what unlocks his potential. Harry Atkins gets the leg-up again - that combination is worth following blind this season.
Val Dancer brings both course and distance form to the table, which Toby McCain-Mitchell will be keen to exploit. At nine years old, this fellow knows the game, and Charlie Hammond's booking suggests connections fancy their chances.
Don't overlook Castle Robin either - this 11-year-old warrior has distance form and Lilly Pinchin in the saddle. Charlie Longsdon's stable are in decent nick, and an each-way punt at bigger odds could pay dividends.
Going Conditions Analysis
These good to soft conditions are absolutely crucial to today's proceedings, and any punter worth their salt needs to factor this into their thinking. The ground favours horses with a bit of pace who can travel sweetly through their races without getting bogged down.
For the longer distance events, particularly that 3m 30y chase, stamina will still be at a premium, but horses won't be grinding through heavy conditions. This should produce more tactical affairs where jockeyship comes to the fore - another reason to follow the Kielan Woods and Theo Gillard rides today.
The maiden hurdle will likely be run at a decent clip on this ground, which should suit the more experienced runners who know how to position themselves. Those ratings gaps will be even more telling when the ground allows the better horses to show their true ability.
Trainer and Jockey Combinations
Dan Skelton's team arrive in flying form, and with multiple runners across the card, they look the yard to follow. The Skelton-Atkins partnership has been in devastating form recently, and both Knickerbockerglory and Joyeux Machin represent excellent value for their respective contests.
Donald McCain saddles several runners today, with Benjamin Macey taking rides for multiple trainers. The McCain yard always comes to Ascot well-prepared, and their runners typically improve for the experience even if they don't win first time out.
Keep an eye on the Olly Murphy-trained runners too - this yard has been flying under the radar but picking up decent prize money. When they target a specific race, they usually mean business.
Tom's Best Bets and Ones to Watch
Right, here's where the rubber meets the road. For the feature race, Knickerbockerglory is my confident selection despite the weight. Class tells at this level, and Skelton's team know exactly how to get this veteran primed for the big occasions.
In the 3m chase, Joyeux Machin represents excellent each-way value. The step up in trip looks ideal, and the Skelton stable are having a purple patch that shows no signs of ending.
For the opening maiden hurdle, Tommy Pickles looks a class above these rivals. That 114 rating didn't come from nowhere, and Snowden's team have been patient with this lad.
Finally, don't ignore The Four Sixes in the feature - course and distance form combined with Murphy's shrewd placement makes him a live danger at bigger odds. Sometimes the value lies with the proven performers rather than the headline acts.
Get yourselves down to the track or settle in for what promises to be a cracking afternoon's entertainment. The ground's perfect, the fields are competitive, and there's money to be made for those who do their homework. Sláinte!
