Soft Ground Sets the Scene at Cartmel
Right then, punters, we're off to the delightful Cartmel on Sunday afternoon where Mother Nature has served up exactly what the doctor ordered - proper soft ground with good to soft patches that'll separate the wheat from the chaff. This isn't your manicured Cheltenham turf, mind you. This is proper National Hunt racing where stamina and jumping ability matter more than a flashy turn of foot.
The Cartmel racecard serves up seven races of honest jumps action, and with that soft going description reading like a proper Irish winter's day, we're in for some serious tests of stamina. The track's undulating nature combined with the testing ground will find out any pretenders sharpish.
Feature Race: Mares Take Centre Stage
The day's feature is the georgebakerracing.com Mares' Handicap Hurdle at 15:55, a Class 3 affair worth £12,000 that's also a Challenger Mares' Hurdle Series qualifier. Now this is where the serious money talks, and the form book gets a proper examination.
Flying Fortune heads the weights on 127 and she's the one they all have to beat. This seven-year-old has both course and distance form in her locker, which on this unique track is worth its weight in gold. James Bowen knows his way around here, and Mickey Bowen's mare has the engine for this test. She's proven in these conditions and that's half the battle won.
The danger comes from Siog Geal, just a pound behind on 126. Fergal O'Brien's seven-year-old has been knocking on the door lately, and with Fern O'Brien in the saddle, she's got the family connection working for her. This mare has the pedigree to handle the soft ground - her breeding screams stamina.
The Outsider's Chance
Rula Bula on 123 catches the eye for the O'Neill team. Jonjo O'Neill Jr. has been in cracking form lately, and this mare has been campaigned with a race like this in mind. She's fresh enough and the step up in trip on this testing ground could unlock improvement.
Maiden Hurdles Offer Opportunity
The opening mares' maiden hurdle at 14:10 is a proper puzzle with eleven runners having a go. Eremenko represents the Nicky Henderson yard with James Bowen aboard - that's a combination that demands respect even in a maiden. Henderson doesn't send them up to Cartmel for the craic, and this five-year-old could have plenty in hand.
Fern Gully for Emma Lavelle with Harry Cobden in the saddle is another to note. Cobden's booking suggests there's confidence behind this six-year-old, and Lavelle's horses often improve significantly for their hurdling debuts.
The longer maiden hurdle at 14:45 looks a more straightforward affair. Island Bridge is the only runner with a rating (116), which tells you everything you need to know. Tom Bellamy rides for the Bailey/Nicholls partnership, and this six-year-old should have too much class for this field.
Chasing Action Provides Value
The wedding celebration handicap chase at 15:20 is a competitive heat where the soft ground will play havoc with the form book. Captain Boudet tops the weights on 107 with Rex Dingle doing the steering. Jeremy Scott's seven-year-old has been running with credit lately and the step back up in trip suits.
But I'm more interested in Handin Manypockets from the Syd Hosie yard. This five-year-old is unexposed over fences and carries just 109 in the ratings. The soft ground won't inconvenience him one bit, and Paddy Hanlon knows how to get them jumping round Cartmel's unique obstacles.
The novice chase at 16:30 looks between Black Hawk Eagle and Milan Tino. Kerry Lee's charge has course and distance form, while Tom George's runner brings Harry Cobden into play again. In a five-runner field, it's hard to see past these two.
Late Chase Intrigue
The 17:05 chase offers Risk de Pluie the chance to follow up recent good form. Ben Clarke's seven-year-old has both course and distance form and handles the ground. At the weights, he looks well-treated and should take some stopping.
Best Bets and Ones to Watch
Right, here's where the rubber meets the road. In the feature mares' hurdle, Flying Fortune is the solid choice - course and distance form on this ground is golden at Cartmel. She's proven at this level and James Bowen's partnership with the Bowen yard is flying.
For value, I'm sweet on Island Bridge in the longer maiden hurdle - that rating advantage should tell, and the Bailey/Nicholls team know how to place their horses.
In the chases, Handin Manypockets appeals as an improver in the wedding celebration handicap, while Risk de Pluie looks the class act in the evening chase.
The soft ground at Cartmel will reward the genuine stayers and punish the speed merchants. It's a day for the honest types who can gallop and jump - exactly what National Hunt racing should be about. These conditions will create a proper test, and that's when the cream rises to the top.
Remember, Cartmel's unique figure-of-eight track means course experience is invaluable. Back the ones who've been round here before and respect any runner with a 'C' or 'D' next to their name. The ground will do the rest of the talking.
