The Lockinge Stakes: A Miler's Paradise
Right, settle in with your pint because we've got ourselves a proper Group 1 scrap on Saturday. The Boyle Sports Lockinge Stakes has found itself a new home at Market Rasen – and fair play to them for landing such a prestigious contest. This race has always been the season's first proper test for the miling elite, and with £400,000 on the table, you can bet every trainer worth their salt will have had this circled in red since last autumn.
The going is reading Good with a soil moisture average of 42, which should suit most of this field down to the ground. It's that perfect spring surface – not too quick to catch out the hold-up merchants, not soft enough to turn it into a slog. Ten runners have stood their ground for what promises to be an absolute belter of a contest.
The Main Contenders: Separating the Wheat from the Chaff
Notable Speech (122 rating) sits at the head of the weights for Charlie Appleby, and you'd be daft to ignore anything from that stable carrying William Buick. That rating of 122 doesn't lie – this fella has serious class, and the distance winner tag tells you he's got the mile nailed down. Draw 3 is handy enough, and Buick will likely track the pace before unleashing that trademark Godolphin finish.
Damysus for the Gosden father-and-son team brings a rating of 120 and the services of James Doyle. This four-year-old colt is still on the upgrade, and that's a dangerous combination in a race like this. The wide draw in stall 10 might look a concern, but Doyle's no mug – he'll find his spot and this lad has the class to overcome traffic problems.
Zeus Olympios is an interesting runner for Karl Burke. Rating 120 suggests he belongs at this level, and Burke doesn't run horses in Group 1s for the exercise. The inside draw could be crucial if the pace is strong, and Clifford Lee knows his way around a big-field sprint finish.
Cicero's Gift brings course and distance form to the table, which is never to be sniffed at. Charles Hills has him rated 119, and Jason Watson takes the ride. That local knowledge could prove invaluable in a tight finish.
The Dark Horses and Value Plays
Now here's where it gets interesting, and where the real money might be made. More Thunder for William Haggas is a course winner carrying a 117 rating that might just be underestimating him. Tom Marquand in the saddle from draw 9 – this combination has been flying under the radar, and I've a sneaking suspicion they might just gate-crash this party.
The Lion In Winter represents Aidan O'Brien with Ryan Moore aboard, and you ignore that combination at your peril. The rating of 117 looks workable, and if the Ballydoyle maestro has found the key to this lad, he could spring a surprise at a price.
Don't sleep on Dancing Gemini either. Rossa Ryan takes the mount for Roger Teal, and this fellow has course and distance form in the book. Sometimes these smaller yards can pull off the big one when the pressure's off.
Going and Draw Analysis: The Tactical Battle
That Good going should play fairly, though I'd expect it to favor those with a turn of foot rather than the pure grinders. The draw looks relatively fair over the mile trip at Market Rasen, though I wouldn't want to be too wide if the pace is steady early.
Stalls 1-5 look handy enough, with Zeus Olympios getting first run from the rail and Notable Speech nicely positioned in 3. Damysus will need Doyle to work his magic from the outside, but this isn't Epsom – there's time to get organized.
The key will be the early pace. If it's genuine, those held up could find themselves with plenty to do. If it's messy, the pace-setters might just steal a march on this quality field.
Who Will Win the Boyle Sports Lockinge Stakes?
Notable Speech looks the most solid proposition at the weights, and that Appleby-Buick combination is hard to oppose in Group company. The rating suggests he's the best horse in the race, and the form figures back that up.
However, I'm drawn to Damysus as the value play. This four-year-old is still improving, the Gosden team know how to place their horses, and James Doyle is riding with serious confidence this season. The wide draw is a concern, but class usually finds a way.
The Verdict: Following the Value
For the selection, I'm backing Damysus each-way at what should be decent odds. The improvement curve suggests he's not done progressing, and that's exactly what you want in a competitive Group 1. Notable Speech will likely start favorite and has every right to, but Damysus represents the value in what promises to be a cracking renewal.
The Lockinge has always been about separating the genuine milers from the pretenders, and Saturday's Market Rasen racecard suggests we're in for a proper test. May the best horse win – and may your fancy get there first!
