Setting the Scene: The Sceptre at Chester

Right, settle in and let me tell you about one of the more underappreciated Group 3s on the Flat calendar. The Japan Racing Association Sceptre Fillies' Stakes at Chester on Sunday the 13th of September has attracted a cracking field of twenty — and with £95,000 in prize money on the table, the big yards have sent their best. Named after the legendary Sceptre, who won four Classics in 1902, this race carries real prestige, and the Chester racecard is shaping up to be one of the highlights of the autumn Flat season.

Now, I know what you're thinking — Tom, you're a jumps man, what are you doing poking around a seven-furlong Flat race in September? Fair point, but good racing is good racing, and this contest has enough stamina questions, going nuances, and tactical intrigue to keep any honest racing man entertained. Chester's tight, left-handed circuit is one of the most unique venues in Britain, and it throws up results that confound the form book on a regular basis. Let's get stuck in.

The Going and Draw — Chester's Great Equaliser

The going is Good with the Soil Moisture at 38% — that's on the quicker side of Good, and it'll suit horses with a turn of foot rather than relentless gallopers. Chester's track is so tight and so flat that the draw can be absolutely decisive, particularly over seven furlongs where the field is bunched from the off and position is everything.

With twenty runners, this is a proper cavalry charge. The low draws — stalls one through five — will be hugging the rail from the jump, and on Good ground at Chester, that is a serious advantage. Ruby's Angel (1), Canneza (2), Magic Basma (3), Forty Years On (4), and Isle of Fernandez (5) all get a lovely pitch. Conversely, anything drawn in the high teens — Arabian Dusk (19), Bellarchi (20) — faces a stiff task just to get competitive, and I'd be very wary of backing anything from double figures at a short price without a very compelling reason. The wide draws at Chester aren't a death sentence, but they're a serious inconvenience, and in a race this competitive, you can't afford to be giving ground away before a hoof is lifted.

The Main Contenders — Who Can Win This?

Touleen (Draw: 16) — Owen Burrows / David Probert

Let's start with the elephant in the room. Touleen is the highest-rated runner in the field at 112, carrying just 9-0 as a three-year-old, and she's a proven distance winner to boot. Owen Burrows is a trainer who doesn't send horses on long journeys without a plan, and David Probert is a jockey who rides with real intelligence. The problem? Draw 16. At Chester, that's not ideal — not ideal at all. She'll need a smooth passage and a bit of luck in running. But here's the thing: when you're 12 pounds clear of the bottom of the field on ratings, you can afford to give a bit away. If Probert can slot her in and get a clear run from the two-furlong pole, she has the class to mow them down. She's the one they all have to beat, wide draw and all.

Forty Years On (Draw: 4) — George Scott / Hector Crouch

Now this is the one that gets me excited. Rated 105, a course winner and a distance winner, drawn four — she's got the low draw the market leaders would kill for. George Scott is a trainer who knows how to place a filly, and Hector Crouch is quietly becoming one of the shrewdest young jockeys around. She's proven she can handle Chester's unique demands, she's proven she stays the trip, and she gets in at 9-4. If she runs her race, she'll be right there at the finish. This is my idea of a proper each-way proposition — she could easily outrun her price.

Darnation (Draw: 15) — K.R. Burke / Clifford Lee

Karl Burke is a man who wins races, full stop. Darnation is rated 103 and carries the form flags of both a course winner and a distance winner — that's a compelling CV for a race like this. The draw at 15 is a concern, same as Touleen, but Burke's horses are rarely out of condition and Clifford Lee is more than capable. She's a mare who knows her way around Chester and stays seven furlongs well. Don't dismiss her.

The Prettiest Star (Draw: 13) — Ed Walker / Callum Rodriguez

Rated 106 and trained by the excellent Ed Walker, The Prettiest Star is the second-highest rated three-year-old in the field. She doesn't carry the course or distance winner flags, which gives me a small pause, but Walker is a trainer in superb form and Rodriguez is a confident, attacking jockey. Draw 13 is workable if she breaks well. She's got the ability — the question is whether Chester suits her.

Pina Sonata (Draw: 7) — James Fanshawe / Daniel Muscutt

Rated 103, drawn seven, trained by the meticulous James Fanshawe. Pina Sonata gets a lovely middle draw that gives her options, and Fanshawe's fillies are always well-prepared for their targets. She's not flashy, she's not the headline act — but she's exactly the kind of horse that creeps into your thinking at a decent price. One to include in multiples.

Copacabana Sands (Draw: 11) — Andrew Balding / Oisin Murphy

You don't put Oisin Murphy up without meaning business. Rated 101 for Andrew Balding, drawn 11 — it's not a bad draw, and Murphy's tactical awareness at a track like Chester is second to none. Balding sends horses to Chester with a plan, and Murphy executes plans. Keep her onside.

Value Picks and Each-Way Angles

  • Forty Years On (Draw 4) — Low draw, course and distance form, top young trainer. Looks the standout each-way play at what should be a decent price against Touleen.
  • Planet Seeker (Draw 8) — Ralph Beckett's three-year-old, rated 101, a distance winner, drawn eight. Beckett is quietly excellent with fillies and Rhys Clutterbuck is an underrated booking. Could outrun her odds.
  • Magic Basma (Draw 3) — Kevin Ryan, Kevin Stott, drawn three. The trainer-jockey combination know Chester well and the low draw is gold dust in a field this big. At a big price, she's worth a small each-way interest.

Tom's Verdict — My Selection

Right, here's where I nail my colours to the mast. Touleen is the class act and she'll probably win — I won't pretend otherwise. But at what price? If she's short, the draw at 16 makes her a value-negative proposition, and in a race with twenty runners, anything can happen in the first furlong.

My selection is Forty Years On. Course winner. Distance winner. Low draw. Top trainer in George Scott, a jockey in Hector Crouch who's been flying, and a rating of 105 that puts her right in contention. She's proven at Chester, she gets the trip, and she'll be racing from a pitch that Touleen and Darnation would envy. If Touleen gets stopped in traffic or has to switch, Forty Years On will be long gone up the rail. Each-way at whatever the market offers.

For the full picture on Sunday's action, check the Chester racecard and keep an eye on the market moves — if Forty Years On drifts, fill your boots.

Who is the Favourite for the Japan Racing Association Sceptre Fillies' Stakes 2026?

Touleen, trained by Owen Burrows and ridden by David Probert, is expected to head the market. Rated 112 — a full seven pounds clear of her nearest rivals on official ratings — she's the standout on form. She's a proven distance winner and Burrows is a trainer who targets races deliberately. The concern is her draw in stall 16 at Chester, where the low numbers hold a significant advantage in big fields. She's the most talented horse in the race, but whether she represents value at a short price is another question entirely.

Does the Draw Matter at Chester Over Seven Furlongs?

Absolutely it does, and don't let anyone tell you otherwise. Chester is a uniquely tight, flat, left-handed circuit, and over seven furlongs with a field of twenty, the low draws get a direct line to the rail and can dictate their own destiny. High draws — anything from 14 upwards — must either push forward aggressively in the early stages or hope for gaps that may never come. In a competitive Group 3 on Good ground, that's a significant disadvantage. Horses like Forty Years On (4), Magic Basma (3), and Canneza (2) all benefit enormously from their stall positions.

Which Trainers Have the Best Record in the Sceptre Fillies' Stakes?

Historically, the Sceptre has rewarded trainers who know Chester's quirks and target the race deliberately. Andrew Balding, Ralph Beckett, and Kevin Ryan all have strong records at the course generally, and all three are represented here. Owen Burrows, while less associated with Chester specifically, has shown in recent seasons that he can travel his horses and win at any venue. George Scott is the interesting one — he's a trainer on the rise who has shown a real aptitude for placing fillies in Group races, and his runner Forty Years On has the course and distance form to suggest this race was circled on the calendar months ago. Hector Crouch and Saffie Osborne are also worth noting as jockeys who've been in fine form heading into the autumn.