Setting the Scene for Cheltenham's Spring Highlight
Right, settle in with your pint because we've got ourselves a proper contest here at Cheltenham this Thursday. The Ladbrokes Ormonde Stakes might not have the razzmatazz of the Festival, but don't let that fool you – this Group 3 prize over a mile and five furlongs often serves up some crackers. With £150,000 on the table and Good going underfoot, we've got eight runners ready to do battle, and the complexion of this race screams quality from top to bottom.
The Ormonde has a habit of attracting the big guns looking for a prep run or those seeking to cement their credentials at this level. This year's renewal is no different, with Ballydoyle sending over two serious contenders and the usual suspects from Britain's top yards making their presence felt. The Good going is absolutely crucial here – it'll suit the classier types who can quicken, rather than those who need it soft to show their best.
Analysing the Main Contenders
Let's start with the elephant in the room – Jan Brueghel for Aidan O'Brien. This fella carries a rating of 125, which puts him streets ahead of this field on paper. Ryan Moore takes the ride, and when those two combine, you sit up and take notice. The five-year-old has been operating at a higher level than this, and if he's anywhere near his best, this looks like a penalty kick. The concern? Why is he here instead of taking on Group 1 company? Sometimes when Ballydoyle drop a horse down in grade, it's because they know something we don't.
His stablemate Illinois is no slouch either, rated 116 and carrying the 'course and distance winner' flags that always catch my eye. W. M. Lordan gets the leg up, and this lad has shown he handles Cheltenham well. The drop in weight to 9-2 could be significant, and don't underestimate the value of proven course form around this unique track.
Rahiebb represents the Roger Varian yard and comes here as a four-year-old still on the upgrade. Rated 115, he's got the class to be competitive, and being the youngest in the field could work in his favour. The draw in stall one might not be ideal, but Ray Dawson knows how to get them out of tight spots.
Al Qareem for Karl Burke is another with the course winner tag, and that's worth its weight in gold around here. The seven-year-old might be getting on, but Clifford Lee has been riding with real confidence lately, and this horse clearly loves the place.
Going and Draw Analysis
The Good going is absolutely key to how this race will unfold. Forget about the sloggers – this surface will favour the horses with a turn of foot and genuine class. It's quick enough for the speedier types but not so firm that it'll find out the stamina-shy brigade over this extended trip.
As for the draw, stall 8 might look awkward for Al Qareem, but Clifford Lee has the experience to overcome it. The inside berths look handy enough, with Rahiebb potentially able to track the pace from the rail. Jan Brueghel in stall 4 gives Moore plenty of options, which is exactly how the master likes it.
The pace scenario looks interesting – with no obvious front-runner, we might see a steadier gallop than ideal, which could bring the outsiders into play. That said, class has a habit of rising to the surface in these conditions.
Value Picks and Potential Dangers
If you're looking for value, Mount Atlas for Andrew Balding catches my eye at longer odds. Oisin Murphy in the saddle is a positive, and this horse has been running consistently at a decent level. The Balding yard knows how to get them ready for a big day, and 107 might underestimate his current ability.
Sons And Lovers from the Joseph Patrick O'Brien stable is another to consider. Dylan Browne McMonagle has been riding out of his skin lately, and this yard's horses often improve significantly when stepping up in trip. The 112 rating suggests he's no mug, and the good draw in stall 2 puts him right in the mix.
The danger horse? It has to be Beylerbeyi for Ian Williams. Yes, he's rated only 101, but he's wearing a tongue-tie for the first time, which suggests connections think there's improvement to come. Billy Loughnane is a canny pilot, and this one could outrun his odds if everything falls right.
Who Will Win the Ladbrokes Ormonde Stakes?
Despite my natural inclination to oppose short-priced favourites, I can't get away from Jan Brueghel here. The class difference is just too significant, and when you've got Ryan Moore in the saddle for Aidan O'Brien, you need a very good reason to oppose them. The fact he's dropping down in grade might raise eyebrows, but sometimes the best horses just need a confidence-boosting win.
Illinois represents the value in the O'Brien challenge and makes plenty of appeal as an each-way proposition, while Al Qareem's course form makes him a solid place bet despite the wide draw.
What Are the Key Factors for the Ormonde Stakes?
The Good going eliminates the stamina doubters and puts the emphasis on class and a turn of foot. Course form is always valuable at Cheltenham, where the unique nature of the track can catch horses out. The relatively small field means there's less chance of traffic problems, so we should see the best horse win on merit.
Which Jockey Has the Best Record in This Race?
While this particular renewal doesn't feature any jockeys with outstanding records in the Ormonde specifically, Ryan Moore's partnership with Aidan O'Brien in these types of races is the stuff of legend. Moore's ability to produce horses at exactly the right moment, combined with O'Brien's tactical acumen, makes them a formidable combination in any Group race scenario.
