Setting the Scene: A Proper Saturday Puzzle at Chester
Right, pull up a stool and listen carefully, because the Chester mile handicap on a Saturday afternoon in September is exactly the kind of race that makes this game simultaneously infuriating and utterly addictive. Seventeen runners, a tight oval track that punishes the wide draws something rotten, good to soft patches lurking to catch out anything who doesn't truly stay, and £70,000 in prize money ensuring every trainer in the land has been plotting and scheming since the entries opened. This is not a race for the faint-hearted, and it's certainly not one for punters who like their selections gift-wrapped. But sure, that's why we're here, isn't it?
The Pertemps Network Handicap Stakes has the feel of a race where the handicapper has done his level best to compress the field, and with ratings spanning from 84 up to 103, there's genuine depth here. The going is Good, Good to Soft in places with a Soil Moisture reading of 40 — that's enough juice to bring stamina into play around Chester's unique, almost circular mile, and it will ruthlessly expose anything that's been flattered by a sound surface. Keep that firmly in mind.
The Draw and Going: Chester's Great Equaliser
Let's get the elephant in the room sorted before we talk about a single horse. Chester's draw bias is as real as the rain in Roscommon, and in a field of 17 over a mile, it is absolutely critical. The low-to-middle draws — broadly stalls one through eight — give you the inner rail, the shorter route around the bend, and a clean passage into the straight. High draws, particularly anything double figures on a big field day, are essentially paying a tax before the gates even open.
Now, there are nuances. A truly pace-honest gallop can see high-drawn horses get across early, but with 17 runners and jockeys fighting for position from the off, that's a big ask. The ground reading of SM 40 also means the going on the inside, where the rail has been watered and the turf is more compacted, may actually ride slightly easier than the wider ground — another tick in the box for the low draws. Stalls 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 and 7 are the ones to be targeting here. Stalls 1 is tight against the rail and can be tricky to manoeuvre from, so it's not quite the golden ticket it looks on paper. Anything drawn 13 or higher is going to need either a very strong pace or an exceptional horse to overcome the disadvantage. File that away.
The Main Contenders: Who Can Win This Thing?
Bullet Point (Draw 9, William Haggas / Tom Marquand)
The top weight at 9-12 and the one everyone will be talking about. Tom Marquand takes the ride for William Haggas, and that combination alone demands respect — Haggas doesn't send horses to Chester for the day out, and Marquand is as good as it gets when it comes to reading a tight track. Bullet Point is a proven mile winner and, at a rating of 103, he's carrying the burden of favouritism both in terms of weight and expectation. Draw 9 is workable without being ideal — he'll need Marquand to be clever in the early stages. The concern is that 9-12 on ground with any cut in it around Chester is a serious ask, and the handicapper has him right at the top of the pile for a reason. Respect, but at a short price, he's not the one for me.
Fifth Column (Draw 2, John & Thady Gosden / Robert Havlin)
Now we're talking. Draw 2 at Chester in a big-field mile handicap is almost worth a point on its own, and the Gosden yard — even with Thady now very much steering the ship — knows exactly how to place a horse to maximum effect. Robert Havlin is an underrated pilot who rides Chester particularly well and won't be panicked into doing anything daft. Fourth Column is rated 101, so he's giving away weight to the top but not so much that it becomes prohibitive. A proven distance winner, and the combination of that low draw, a yard in fine fettle, and a jockey who knows the track makes this one very interesting indeed.
Ebt's Guard (Draw 3, William Muir & Chris Grassick / Lewis Edmunds)
Another low draw, another distance winner, and a yard that quietly goes about its business without making too much noise. Lewis Edmunds is a capable claimer who will benefit enormously from that stall 3 berth. At 9-11, the weight is manageable, and the Muir & Grassick operation has been placing horses shrewdly all season. Don't be put off by the lack of a big name on the trainer's board — these lads know what they're doing. A genuine each-way contender at what should be a decent price.
Mezcala (Draw 14, Jack Channon / George Bass)
Here's the awkward one. Mezcala is the only runner in the field who carries both the course winner and distance winner flags, which tells you this horse has already figured out the Chester puzzle. That form on this track is absolutely gold dust. The problem? Draw 14. In a 17-runner field at Chester, that's a serious disadvantage, and George Bass will need to be very aggressive from the gates to have any chance of getting across to better ground. If the pace is strong and the field fans wide, Mezcala's course knowledge could bring him back into it late. He's the one I'd be keeping a very close eye on in the market — if he drifts to a big enough price, the course form might just be worth the draw gamble.
Checkandchallenge (Draw 5, William Knight / Callum Shepherd)
Seven years old and still knocking on the door — you've got to admire the old boy's persistence. Draw 5 is lovely, Callum Shepherd is a tidy jockey who won't waste that advantage, and William Knight is not a man who runs horses without a plan. The rating of 99 means he's off a mark he can work with, and the distance form is solid. He won't be favourite, and that suits me fine. Each-way claims are strong.
Moonfall (Draw 7, George Boughey / Billy Loughnane)
A three-year-old taking on the older horses, but George Boughey has been one of the most exciting young trainers in the country and Billy Loughnane is a jockey going places at serious speed. Draw 7 is decent, the rating of 99 means he gets in well under the age allowance, and if Boughey has him primed for this — and you'd back Boughey to have a plan — he could outrun his odds considerably. Worth including in any each-way multiple.
Value Picks and Dangers to Avoid
The horses drawn high that I'd be very wary of backing include Mister Winston (draw 17) and Treasure Time (draw 16) — Jason Watson is a fine jockey but even Jason Watson can't conjure a miracle from stall 17 in a 17-runner field on this track. Cash (draw 13) and Mezcala (draw 14) are the only high-drawn runners I'd entertain, and only at a price.
The danger I genuinely fear is Scoville (draw 6) for William Haggas. The yard has two runners, which sometimes means one is the springer, and Scoville in the tongue strap with Daniel Tudhope aboard from draw 6 on this ground is a horse that could easily be the stable's real intended winner. Watch the market moves on that one carefully in the morning.
Tom's Tip: The Selection
Right, cards on the table. My best bet is Fifth Column — draw 2, Gosden yard, Robert Havlin, proven mile winner, and a rating of 101 that gives him every chance at the weights. The draw alone makes him the horse to beat in my book, and if the Gosden team have him cherry-ripe for this, he'll take all the beating. Each-way at whatever price the market offers.
For the each-way double, I'm pairing him with Checkandchallenge from draw 5. Shepherd will use that position beautifully, the old horse knows his job, and at seven years old he's not running here for the craic — Knight will have him spot on. Check the Chester racecard for the latest market moves before you commit, and keep one eye on Scoville in the Haggas camp. Good luck, and may the draw gods be with you.
Who Is the Favourite for the Pertemps Network Handicap Stakes?
Based on ratings, Bullet Point is likely to be the market favourite, carrying top weight of 9-12 for William Haggas and Tom Marquand. He's a proven mile winner with a high-class handler, but his draw of 9 and that hefty weight in ground with cut makes him vulnerable to lower-drawn rivals at a shorter price. Respect him, but don't be afraid to take him on.
Does the Draw Really Matter at Chester Over a Mile?
Absolutely and emphatically yes. Chester is one of the most draw-biased tracks in British racing, particularly in big-field handicaps over a mile. The tight, almost circular nature of the course means low draws get the inner rail and the shorter route, while high draws face a longer journey and a constant battle for position. In a 17-runner field, draws 1 through 8 hold a significant structural advantage, and this should heavily influence your betting approach in the Pertemps Network Handicap Stakes.
Is the Going Likely to Affect the Result Significantly?
Good to Soft in places with an SM reading of 40 is enough to bring genuine stamina into play around Chester's unique mile. Horses who have won on a sound surface but lack a true staying pedigree may find this ground more searching than expected. Conversely, any runner with form on cut ground and a proven ability to see out a strongly-run mile will be at a premium. It's not heavy, but it's not a flat, fast surface either — stamina and class will be rewarded, and anything flattered by good ground will be found out.
