Setting the Scene: A Cracking Summer Showcase at Cheltenham

Now, I know what you're thinking — Cheltenham in August, flat racing, two-year-old fillies. What's Tom O'Brien doing writing about this? Fair point. I'm a jumps man through and through, and ordinarily you'd find me more interested in what's happening over the sticks than on the level. But here's the thing — this race matters. The Powells Jewellery EBF Fillies' Conditions Stakes over six furlongs and seventeen yards on the Cheltenham flat course is exactly the kind of race that separates the promising from the genuinely exciting. These fillies are only two years old, the prize is a tasty £20,000, and with the GBB Race tag attached, there's serious black-type incentive for connections. On good to soft ground with soft patches, we're going to find out very quickly who wants to get her feet dirty — and who doesn't.

Check out the full Cheltenham racecard for Saturday to see how this fits into a cracking afternoon's sport. Now, let's get stuck in.

Contender-by-Contender Breakdown

Nicely (Draw: 1, Rating: 89) — The One They All Have to Beat

Trained by the increasingly impressive Kevin Philippart de Foy and ridden by Hector Crouch, Nicely arrives here as the highest-rated runner in the field at 89 and carrying the distance winner form flag. That's your starting point right there. She's already won over this trip, she's got a rating that puts daylight between her and most of the opposition, and Philippart de Foy is a trainer who knows exactly what he's doing with his juveniles. He doesn't run them unless they're ready. The draw in stall one on a track where the rail can be a friend in the early stages is not a disadvantage either. The only slight concern? The ground. Good to soft with soft patches is proper testing stuff for August, and you'd want to know she handles it. If she does, she wins this. Simple as that.

Bated Benevolence (Draw: 2, Rating: 86) — Marco Botti's Dark Horse

Here's one I like the look of. Bated Benevolence is trained by the shrewd Marco Botti and ridden by Marco Ghiani — a combination that rarely turns up without a plan. She's rated 86, she's a proven distance winner, and she's drawn right next door to the favourite in stall two. Botti is a trainer who does his homework, and Ghiani is a jockey who's been quietly excellent for years without always getting the credit he deserves. If Nicely has any sort of ground concern, this filly could be the one to capitalise. She's the value play in the race for me, and I'll be coming back to her.

The Can Can Queen (Draw: 7, Rating: 85) — Charlie Johnston's Wildcard

The Can Can Queen is another distance winner in the field, trained by Charlie Johnston and ridden by Callum Shepherd. She's rated 85, so she's right in the mix on ratings, but the draw in stall seven is the thing that gives me pause. On a track with soft patches and six fillies between her and the far rail at the start, she's going to need a clean break and a bit of luck in running. Johnston is a volume trainer who produces winners regularly, but this is a tighter, more conditions-based puzzle than his usual bread and butter. Not dismissing her — she's a live each-way shout — but the wide draw in testing ground is a real negative.

Kentucky Rain (Draw: 4, Rating: 84) — Lemos De Souza's Interesting Contender

Kentucky Rain is trained by Lemos De Souza and ridden by Jason Watson. Rated 84, she sits just below the top trio on official figures, but the mid-draw in stall four is perfectly fine, and Watson is a jockey capable of producing a big performance on the right day. The question mark here is the trainer — Lemos De Souza is not a name that leaps off the page in terms of big-race juvenile form, and I'd want to know a little more about this filly's background before getting too excited. She's one to watch rather than one to back at this stage.

Gladys Pugh (Draw: 5, No Rating) — Kevin Ryan's Unknown Quantity

No official rating, ridden by Tom Eaves and trained by the ever-reliable Kevin Ryan. Now, Ryan is a man who knows his two-year-olds, and Tom Eaves doesn't climb aboard something without a chance. The absence of a rating tells you this filly is relatively lightly raced or making her debut, but Ryan has form producing sharp juveniles who can spring a surprise first time or second time out. She's an each-way danger at a price, and I wouldn't be shocked if she outran her odds. Keep an eye on the market moves before the off.

Takaaful (Draw: 3, No Rating) — Boughey's Wildcard

Trained by George Boughey and ridden by Billy Loughnane — now there's a combination with a bit of fizz to it. Loughnane has been one of the most exciting young jockeys to emerge in recent seasons, and Boughey is a trainer who operates with confidence and intent. No rating, so she's unproven at this level, but the draw in stall three is ideal, and if Boughey has sent her here ready to run a big race, Loughnane will absolutely deliver. She's the dark horse of the piece.

Going and Draw: The Ground is the Story Here

Good to soft, soft in places at Cheltenham in August is a proper leveller. This isn't a quick summer surface — there's juice in it, and that will suit the fillies with a bit of stamina in their pedigree over those who want to ping off a fast surface. The low draws (one, two, three) look advantageous in these conditions, which is great news for Nicely, Bated Benevolence, and Takaaful. The Can Can Queen's wide draw in seven becomes more of a concern the softer the ground gets — she'll be doing extra work from the off. Any trainer who has specifically targeted this race with a filly suited to give-in-the-ground will have a significant edge today.

Value Picks and Dangers

  • Nicely — the clear form pick, rated highest, proven at the trip, excellent draw. She's the one to beat.
  • Bated Benevolence — my value selection. Proven distance winner, excellent trainer-jockey combination, favourable draw. If the market underestimates her, you're getting free money.
  • Gladys Pugh — Kevin Ryan's unknown quantity could be anything. Watch the market.
  • Takaaful — Boughey and Loughnane is a combination worth respecting. Could outrun her odds at a price.
  • The Can Can Queen — talent is there, but the wide draw in soft ground is a real obstacle.

Tom's Verdict: My Selection for the Powells Jewellery EBF Fillies' Stakes

Right, here's where I nail my colours to the mast. Nicely is the obvious pick and I'm not going to pretend otherwise — she's the best-rated filly in the field, she's won over the trip, and Philippart de Foy doesn't send them out to make up the numbers. If you want the safe play, that's your filly.

But for value? Give me Bated Benevolence each way all day long. Marco Botti and Marco Ghiani arriving at a £20,000 conditions race with a proven distance winner drawn next to the favourite — that's not a coincidence, that's a plan. She's rated 86, she's three pounds below Nicely, and if the favourite has any sort of ground question to answer, Bated Benevolence will be right there to mop up. I'm taking the value, backing her each way, and raising a glass to the pair of them if they do the business.

Selection: Bated Benevolence (EW) | Saver: Nicely

Who is the favourite for the Powells Jewellery EBF Fillies' Conditions Stakes?

Nicely is expected to go off as the market leader for the Powells Jewellery EBF Fillies' Conditions Stakes at Cheltenham on Saturday. Trained by Kevin Philippart de Foy and ridden by Hector Crouch, she carries the highest official rating in the field at 89 and has already proven herself over this six-furlong trip. She's the one her rivals all have to find a way past.

Is the draw important in the EBF Fillies' Stakes at Cheltenham?

Yes, particularly given the good to soft, soft in places ground conditions on Saturday. The low draws — stalls one through three — look advantageous as the rail can offer shelter and a cleaner passage in testing conditions. Nicely (stall 1), Bated Benevolence (stall 2), and Takaaful (stall 3) all benefit from this, while The Can Can Queen in stall seven faces the toughest task from a positional standpoint.

Who should I back each way in the Powells Jewellery EBF Fillies' Conditions Stakes?

Bated Benevolence is Tom O'Brien's each-way selection for the race. Trained by Marco Botti and ridden by Marco Ghiani, she's a proven distance winner with a favourable draw and a shrewd team behind her. At a likely bigger price than the favourite Nicely, she represents genuine each-way value in what looks like a competitive but very winnable conditions race for a filly of her profile.