Setting the Scene: Why the Princess Margaret Matters
Right, pull up a stool and let me tell you about one of the most fascinating races on the summer Flat calendar — and yes, I know, I know, your man Tom usually has his head buried in a form book full of hurdles and fences. But even a diehard jumps man like myself has a soft spot for a Group 3 sprint at Ascot when it's packed with quality juvenile fillies and a few intriguing unknowns thrown in for good measure.
The Princess Margaret Japan Cup Stakes has long served as a crucial stepping stone for precocious two-year-old fillies with Classic ambitions. Winners of this race have gone on to make serious noise in the 1000 Guineas market, and with £80,000 in prize money up for grabs on good to firm ground on a sun-baked July afternoon, every trainer in this field means serious business. Eleven fillies, six furlongs, a goingstick reading of 8 on the stands side — this is a proper test of speed and class. Let's get into it.
Going and Draw: The Conditions Conversation
Before we talk horses, we need to talk ground. A goingstick reading of 8.0 on the stands side tells you everything — this is rapid. Good to firm is as quick as most trainers like, and on a day like this at Ascot, the stands-side rail is where you want to be. The six-furlong course here tends to favour those who can be handy early, and on fast ground, you simply cannot afford to be giving away lengths at the start.
Now, the draw. In a field of eleven over six furlongs at Ascot on quick ground, low-to-middle draws tend to hold an advantage, particularly when there's pace to be made on the stands rail. Stalls 1 through 5 look the most desirable, which puts Alta Regina (1), Moonrise (2), Dark Issue (3), Glorious Game (4), and Velozee (5) in the most favourable positions. High draws — particularly 9, 10, and 11 — will need either exceptional ability or a strong pace to compensate. Ryan Moore on Dee's Funny Girl from stall 10 and William Buick on The Can Can Queen from the widest draw of 11 will have to work harder than they'd like. Don't let the big names fool you — draw bias is real, and it matters here.
Contender Analysis: The Ones to Watch
Dark Issue (Draw 3) — Richard Hannon / Pat Dobbs
Dark Issue heads the market on a rating of 98, and frankly, it's hard to argue with that on the bare form. Richard Hannon is a master with speedy juvenile fillies — the man practically has a production line for them — and a proven distance winner stepping up to Group 3 company from a low draw is exactly the profile you want. Pat Dobbs is underrated by the casual punter but Hannon trusts him implicitly with his best horses. On paper, she's the one they all have to beat. My only slight reservation? The market may have her a touch short given the unknowns in this field.
Moonrise (Draw 2) — Andrew Balding / Oisin Murphy
Here's a filly I'm genuinely excited about. Moonrise holds a rating of 93, is a proven distance winner, and gets the dream draw in stall 2 with Oisin Murphy in the saddle — a combination that has been absolutely electric this season. Andrew Balding is quietly having one of the best summers of his career and this filly looks tailor-made for these conditions. Fast ground, six furlongs, low draw — tick, tick, tick. She could easily be the one to upstage the market leader.
Harlequin Sky (Draw 8) — Jane Chapple-Hyam / C. Soumillon
Harlequin Sky carries a rating of 92 and arrives with Christophe Soumillon booked — and when a trainer of Jane Chapple-Hyam's calibre goes to the expense of flying in a top European jockey, you sit up and take notice. The draw in 8 is workable rather than ideal, but Soumillon is one of the best in the business at finding a position from a wide gate. She's unexposed at this level and I wouldn't be shocked if she ran a massive race at a decent price.
Alta Regina (Draw 1) — Hamad Al Jehani / Jamie Spencer
Now here's an interesting one. Alta Regina gets the coveted stall 1 and has the wily Jamie Spencer on board — a jockey who absolutely loves a front-running opportunity from the inside rail on fast ground. The rating of 92 is solid, and while trainer Hamad Al Jehani isn't a household name, the horse clearly has ability. Spencer will likely set sail for home and make every post a winning one. She could easily steal this if the pace isn't strong behind her.
Dee's Funny Girl (Draw 10) — Donnacha Aidan O'Brien / Ryan Moore
I'll be honest with you — the draw is a concern. Stall 10 in a field of 11 on fast ground over six furlongs at Ascot is not where you want to be. That said, Ryan Moore is riding for the O'Brien yard, which demands respect, and Dee's Funny Girl clearly has ability on a rating of 88. But she's unproven at this trip as a distance winner, and Moore will have to ride a near-perfect race to overcome the wide draw. At the prices, there are better options.
Glorious Game (Draw 4) — Hugo Palmer / Colin Keane
Glorious Game wears a tongue tie and that's worth noting — Hugo Palmer doesn't reach for the headgear unless he thinks it'll make a difference. She's a distance winner rated 88 and Colin Keane is one of the most in-form riders crossing the Irish Sea at the moment. Draw 4 is perfectly placed. She might be a touch overlooked in the market and could represent decent each-way value.
Value Picks and Dangers
The dark horses in this race are Nuit d'Eclair and Miss Kodi — both unrated, both distance winners, and both coming in under the radar. Kevin Philippart de Foy has been making serious waves with his juveniles this season, and Nuit d'Eclair from stall 6 with David Egan could easily be the one that makes the market look very silly. Miss Kodi for Clive Cox from stall 7 is another who could outrun her unrated status — Cox knows how to place a sharp two-year-old.
As for Magnesium — rated just 74 — she faces a stiff ask here in Group 3 company. Silvestre De Sousa is a fine jockey but even he can't manufacture class from thin air. She's one to leave alone in the betting.
Tom's Verdict: The Selection
Right, here's where I put my money where my mouth is. My selection is Moonrise — and I'll tell you exactly why. She's a proven distance winner, she gets the dream draw in stall 2, she's trained by a man in red-hot form in Andrew Balding, and she has Oisin Murphy — arguably the best jockey in Britain right now — steering her home. On fast ground over six furlongs at Ascot, this filly has every box ticked.
Dark Issue is the worthy favourite and I won't pretend she can't win, but Moonrise at a likely bigger price from a better draw represents the smarter bet. For each-way value, I'd have a small interest in Glorious Game — the tongue tie, the low draw, and Colin Keane make her a fascinating each-way proposition.
Selection: Moonrise (EW)
Each-Way: Glorious Game
Check the full Ascot racecard for the latest market moves and don't miss the off at 13:45. Good luck, and may your fancy jump out of the stalls like it owes you money.
Who is the favourite for the Princess Margaret Japan Cup Stakes 2026?
Dark Issue, trained by Richard Hannon and ridden by Pat Dobbs, heads the market as the top-rated filly in the field on a mark of 98. She's a proven six-furlong winner and gets a favourable draw in stall 3, making her the one they all have to beat on Saturday at Ascot.
What is the going for the Princess Margaret Stakes at Ascot on 25 July 2026?
The going is officially Good to Firm, with the goingstick reading 8.0 on the stands side. This is fast, sharp ground that will suit free-running, speedy types. Horses with a preference for cut in the ground may struggle, and low draws near the stands rail are at a premium on this surface.
Does the draw matter in the Princess Margaret Stakes at Ascot?
Absolutely it does. Over six furlongs at Ascot on good to firm ground, low-to-middle draws are favoured, particularly those who can race prominently on the stands-side rail. Stalls 1-5 hold a clear positional advantage, which is one of the key reasons Moonrise (stall 2) and Dark Issue (stall 3) look so well positioned, while high draws like Dee's Funny Girl (10) and The Can Can Queen (11) face a tougher task.
