A Grade 1 Gem in the Spring Calendar
Right, settle in with your pint because we've got ourselves a proper Grade 1 dust-up at Leicester this Friday. The Thatprizeguy Top Novices' Hurdle might not have the glamour of Cheltenham or Aintree, but don't let that fool you – this £100,000 prize has attracted a field that wouldn't look out of place at any major meeting. Six runners have declared for this 2m 103y test, and by God, there's not a duffer among them.
The going is described as Good to Soft, Good in places, which should suit most of this field down to the ground. Leicester's undulating track will ask serious questions of stamina in the final furlong, and that's where we'll separate the wheat from the chaff. This race has been a launching pad for future stars in recent years, and I've got a sneaking suspicion we're looking at some serious talent here.
The Contenders Under the Microscope
Sober Glory (153 rating) walks into this as the form pick, and rightly so. Philip Hobbs knows how to get one ready for the big day, and that 153 rating tells you everything you need to know about this lad's ability. Ben Jones takes the ride, and he's been in cracking form lately. The six-year-old gelding has that lovely blend of pace and stamina that Leicester demands, and being a proven distance winner gives him a significant edge.
Baron Noir (146 rating) represents the Alan King yard, and you'd be daft to dismiss anything from that stable. At 146, he's giving away 7lb on the ratings to Sober Glory, but ratings don't always tell the full story, do they? Tom Bellamy knows this horse inside out, and King has been quietly confident about this one's chances. The six-year-old has been working like a dream at home, according to my sources.
Sinnatra comes from the Dan Skelton factory with Harry Skelton doing the steering. Now, the Skeltons know how to win big races, and this lad's been specifically targeted at this prize. The hood goes on for the first time, which could unlock improvement we haven't seen yet. At 134, he's got plenty to find on paper, but don't write him off.
Starting Fifteen is the baby of the field at five years old, trained by Eric McNamara and ridden by Sean Flanagan. Sometimes these younger horses can surprise the older brigade with their enthusiasm. The hood suggests connections are looking for that extra bit of focus, and at 136, he's not without a chance if everything falls right.
The Dark Horses and Value Plays
Storming George might be the value play of the race. Neil King doesn't send many to Grade 1 company unless they're well-handicapped, and at 131, this fellow could be flying under the radar. Jack Quinlan is a shrewd booking – he doesn't get the big rides unless the horse has a real chance. The six-year-old is another distance winner, and Leicester's stiff finish could play to his strengths.
La Conquiere brings mare's allowance into play, carrying 11-0 compared to the geldings' 11-7. Jamie Snowden has done a grand job with this seven-year-old, and mares can be dangerous when they're in the mood. Jonathan Burke knows her well, and that 7lb allowance could be the difference in a tight finish.
The good to soft going should suit most of these, though I'd give a slight edge to those with proven stamina reserves. Leicester's track has a way of finding out the weak links, particularly up that final hill.
The Verdict and Value
Look, Sober Glory is clearly the class act here, and Philip Hobbs will have him spot on for this. That 153 rating puts him head and shoulders above the rest on paper, and he's proven at the distance. But at what will likely be short odds, is there value?
I'm drawn to Storming George each-way at bigger odds. Neil King wouldn't be here unless he fancied his chances, and that rating of 131 could be on the lenient side. He's got the stamina for Leicester's test, and Quinlan's booking catches the eye.
For the win, though, I'm siding with Baron Noir. That Alan King yard is in rude health, Bellamy knows the horse like the back of his hand, and 146 might just underestimate his current ability. Sometimes you have to trust the stable confidence, and everything I'm hearing suggests this lad is primed for a big run.
Who is the favourite for the Thatprizeguy Top Novices' Hurdle?
Sober Glory will likely start favourite based on his superior rating of 153. The Philip Hobbs-trained gelding has proven form at the distance and represents the standout form in the field. However, don't expect him to be odds-on – this is a competitive Grade 1 with several live chances.
What impact will the going have on the race?
The Good to Soft, Good in places going should favour the proven stayers in the field. Leicester's undulating track becomes more of a stamina test on softer ground, which could play into the hands of horses like Sober Glory and Baron Noir who have shown they handle testing conditions. The mares' allowance for La Conquiere becomes even more significant on this ground.
Which jockey has the best chance of victory?
Ben Jones on Sober Glory has both the form horse and the experience to deliver, but don't overlook Tom Bellamy's partnership with Baron Noir. Bellamy's strike rate for the Alan King yard has been impressive this season, and his tactical nous could prove crucial in a small but competitive field. The Skelton brothers always combine well too, making Harry a danger on Sinnatra.
