Setting the Scene at Glorious Goodwood
Saturday's William Hill Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap Stakes might not have the glamour of the big festival races, but don't let that fool you – this £45,000 Class 2 contest over two miles at Goodwood is shaping up to be one hell of a puzzle. With 12 runners declared and the going drying back to Good to Soft after this evening's walk, we've got all the ingredients for a proper cavalry charge up that famous Sussex hill.
The beauty of a race like this is that it separates the wheat from the chaff. Over two miles and 46 yards, there's nowhere to hide, and with ratings spanning from 78 to 103, the handicapper has done his job in creating what looks like a wide-open affair. The fact that we've got course and distance winners throughout the field tells you everything about the quality on show.
The Market Leaders Under the Microscope
Prydwen sits at the head of affairs for George Scott, and you can see why the punters are sweet on him. This eight-year-old gelding carries the 10-1 burden with Oisin Murphy in the plate, and that combination alone commands respect. The course winner tag is crucial at Goodwood – this track catches plenty out with its unique undulations and that climb to the line. His rating of 103 makes him the class act on paper, but Christ almighty, that weight is going to tell over this trip on drying ground.
Yashin for Michael Bell looks the most obvious danger, and at 9-11 with Ross Coakley up, he's getting a handy 4lb pull with the favourite. The seven-year-old has proven his stamina over the distance before, and those blinkers, hood, and tongue-tie suggest connections are pulling out all the stops. Bell knows how to place his horses, and this gelding's rating of 99 puts him right in the mix without the crushing weight burden.
Tashkhan from Brian Ellison's yard is another course winner who can't be dismissed lightly. Draw one might look awkward, but Callum Rodriguez knows his way around this track, and at 9-10, he's not overburdened. The eight-year-old has been knocking on the door in similar company, and Ellison's northern raiders often come south with serious intent.
The Dangers Lurking in the Pack
Now here's where it gets interesting. Blazeon Five might be a mare taking on the boys, but Alan King doesn't send his horses anywhere without a chance. At 9-4 with Rossa Ryan aboard, she's getting a lovely weight, and that distance-winning form gives her every chance of staying the trip. Mares can be funny creatures, but when they're good, they're very good indeed.
Pole Star is the baby of the field at just four years old, but Charlie Johnston's gelding has already shown he handles Goodwood with a course win to his name. Jason Hart takes the ride, and at 9-0, he's getting in light. The visor goes on for the first time, which could spark improvement, and you'd expect a four-year-old to have more scope for progress than these battle-hardened older horses.
Almuhit is the each-way thief I'm keeping a close eye on. Both course and distance winner, he's down at the bottom of the weights on 8-11, and while Faye Bramley might not be a household name, she knows her horses. Draw 11 isn't ideal, but Sean Levey is a capable pilot, and at his odds, he only needs to run his race to be in the frame.
Going and Draw Considerations
The drying conditions are crucial here. Good to Soft with the prospect of further improvement will suit the more athletic types and could find out those who need plenty of cut in the ground. Goodwood's unique topography means the draw can play its part, particularly over this extended trip. The low numbers have the rail to aim at, but with 12 runners, there should be plenty of pace to ensure a true test.
Those drawn wide will need luck in running, and with the field bunching up as they hit the home turn, positioning will be everything. Murphy on Prydwen from draw three has the perfect pitch, while Tashkhan in the one box might find himself caught wide early if Rodriguez isn't careful.
The Verdict and Value Plays
Look, Prydwen is a class act, but that weight is a monster over this trip, and I'm not convinced the drying ground is in his favour. Yashin makes plenty of appeal as the main danger, but at likely short odds, where's the value?
My selection is Pole Star each-way. The four-year-old is unexposed over the trip, gets in light, and that visor could be the key to unlocking improvement. Johnston's horses are in good heart, and Hart is a jockey on the up. At his likely price, he represents cracking value in what looks a wide-open renewal.
For the brave, Almuhit at the foot of the weights could be the surprise package. Both course and distance winner getting in on the minimum – what's not to like at big odds?
Who is the favourite for the William Hill Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap Stakes?
Prydwen, trained by George Scott and ridden by Oisin Murphy, heads the market as the highest-rated runner on 103. The eight-year-old course winner carries top weight of 10-1 but has the class to overcome the burden if the conditions suit.
What are the going conditions at Goodwood for Saturday's big handicap?
The going is currently Good to Soft, but conditions continue to dry back following the post-racing walk. This drying trend could favour the more athletic types in the field and may count against those who prefer softer conditions.
Which horses have course and distance form at Goodwood?
Several runners boast valuable course experience: Prydwen, Tashkhan, Pole Star, and Almuhit are all previous Goodwood winners, while Yashin, Blazeon Five, and Almuhit have proven their stamina over similar distances. This local knowledge could prove crucial on Goodwood's unique undulating track.
