The Mildmay - A Proper Test of Staying Power
Right, gather 'round for what promises to be a cracking renewal of the William Hill Mildmay Novices' Chase at Leicester on Friday afternoon. This Grade 1 contest over three miles and two furlongs is no gentle introduction to the staying chase division - it's a proper examination that sorts the wheat from the chaff faster than you can say 'pulled up before the last'.
With £120,000 on offer and crucial grading points at stake, this race often provides a glimpse of future Gold Cup contenders. The good to soft going (good in places) should suit most of this field, though as always, the devil's in the detail when it comes to individual preferences.
The Mullins Machine Rolls Into Town
Let's start with the elephant in the room - or should I say the Willie Mullins-trained missile that is Gold Dancer. Rated 153 and carrying the silks that have conquered Cheltenham more times than I've had hot dinners, this seven-year-old arrives with P. Townend in the saddle and the weight of expectation on his shoulders.
The rating tells you everything - he's a cut above most of these on paper. But here's the rub: ratings don't jump fences, horses do. And at Leicester, over this trip, with the ground having a bit of cut in it, class doesn't always prevail. The tongue-tie suggests connections are leaving nothing to chance, which is either reassuring or slightly concerning depending on your perspective.
The danger with Gold Dancer isn't his ability - it's the price. When Mullins runners arrive at English tracks as short-priced favourites, they don't always provide the value punters hope for.
The Skelton Squadron and Nicholls' Ammunition
Doyen Quest represents the Harry Skelton and Dan Skelton combination that's been firing on all cylinders this season. At eight years old with a rating of 144, he's the veteran of this field but don't let that fool you into thinking he's over the hill. That 'distance winner' flag beside his name is music to my ears - this is a horse that knows how to get home over a trip of ground.
The Skeltons have a knack for getting their horses spot-on for the big occasions, and with Harry in the saddle, you know they'll be positioned perfectly throughout the race. At 11-7, same as the rest, he gets his conditions and could easily outrun his odds.
Paul Nicholls sends Regent's Stroll into battle with Harry Cobden doing the steering. The hood is an interesting addition - sometimes it sharpens them up, other times it's a sign they need all the help they can get. Nicholls doesn't often travel horses for Grade 1s unless he fancies his chances, and this seven-year-old has been campaigned with a race like this in mind.
The Value Hunters' Paradise
Now here's where it gets interesting for those of us who prefer our winners at a decent price. Salver, trained by the Moore brothers and ridden by Caoilin Quinn, comes here rated 152 - just a pound inferior to the market leader on paper. That's a significant detail that the layers might not fully appreciate.
The six-year-old has been kept fresh for this sort of target, and the Moores know their way around a big-field handicap or graded race. Without any headgear, he looks a confident ride, and at what should be bigger odds than Gold Dancer, he represents each-way value at the very least.
Miami Magic is another that catches the eye. Charlie Hammond takes the ride for Stuart Edmunds, and while the trainer might not have the big-race profile of Mullins or Nicholls, he knows how to get one ready for the day that matters. The seven-year-old's rating of 145 puts him right in the mix, and the lack of headgear suggests confidence.
The Going and the Verdict
The good to soft conditions (good in places) should play to the strengths of most of these, but it's worth noting that Jordans Cross has the 'course winner' tag beside his name. Sam Twiston-Davies knows Leicester like the back of his hand, and Anthony Honeyball's six-year-old could easily outrun his odds if the pace sets up right.
The Leicester racecard suggests this will be run at a proper gallop, which should suit the staying types and potentially find out any that are more about speed than stamina.
My selection? I'm taking on the favourite here. Salver at what should be generous odds represents the value play. He's almost as highly rated as Gold Dancer, comes here fresh and ready, and the Moores have him primed for a big run. The each-way terms should be generous enough to make this a profitable play even if he just hits the frame.
Who is the favourite for the William Hill Mildmay Novices' Chase?
Gold Dancer, trained by Willie Mullins and ridden by P. Townend, is expected to head the market. With a rating of 153, he's the highest-rated runner in the field and represents the powerful Mullins stable that has dominated Grade 1 novice chases in recent seasons.
What are the key form indicators for this race?
The ratings tell a clear story - Gold Dancer (153) and Salver (152) are the pick on official figures, followed by Wendigo (149) and the dual 145-rated pair of Miami Magic and Regent's Stroll. The 'distance winner' flag beside Doyen Quest's name is significant over this staying trip, while Jordans Cross has course-winning form at Leicester.
How will the going affect the outcome?
The good to soft conditions (good in places) should suit most runners, but it's worth noting that this ground often levels the playing field between the higher and lower-rated horses. The cut in the ground will test stamina reserves over the extended three-mile trip, potentially playing into the hands of the more experienced stayers like Doyen Quest.
