Soft Ground Specialists Required at Towcester
Saturday's card at Towcester is shaping up to be a proper test of stamina and jumping, with the going described as soft and a few areas of standing water still lurking about the track. When you see conditions like these, you can throw half the form book out the window and start looking for horses that relish getting their toes dirty.
The feature race is undoubtedly the £160,000 Midlands Grand National over an energy-sapping four miles and two furlongs, but there's quality throughout the seven-race card. With the ground riding testing, we'll be looking for horses with proven stamina pedigrees and trainers who know how to get them ready for these conditions.
Midlands Grand National: The Main Event
The Midlands Grand National at 3:00pm is the jewel in the crown, and what a fascinating renewal we have this year. Rock My Way heads the weights for Joe Tizzard with Brendan Powell in the saddle, but at 138 he'll need to be something special to give away lumps of weight over this marathon trip.
My eye is drawn to Deafening Silence for the Skelton team. Dan's horses have been flying lately, and Harry Skelton knows exactly how to time a run in these staying contests. The nine-year-old is nicely weighted at 134 and has the perfect profile for this type of race - he stays all day and handles cut in the ground.
Don't overlook Isaac des Obeaux either. Sam Twiston-Davies takes the ride for Paul Nicholls, and this lad has been knocking on the door in some decent staying chases. The soft ground will bring out the best in him, and Nicholls doesn't send them to Towcester unless they're primed and ready.
Class 2 Handicap Hurdle: French Ship Sets Sail
The 2:25 Class 2 handicap hurdle over two miles seven furlongs looks a cracking contest, with French Ship topping the weights at 146. Philip Hobbs has always had a way with these staying hurdlers, and this six-year-old looks the type to improve again for the step up in trip and testing conditions.
Red Risk catches the eye as a potential each-way play. The eleven-year-old veteran is rated 143 but comes here with course and distance form, which is gold dust in these conditions. Freddie Keighley knows the horse well, and Paul Nicholls has been quietly confident about his older horses this season.
Twig is another with course and distance form that could outrun his odds. At eleven years old, he's seen it all before, and Ben Pauling's charge has shown he can handle soft ground. The extra distance will suit, and Beau Morgan is a capable pilot for this type of staying test.
The Going Makes All the Difference
With standing water still present on the track, we're looking at a proper slog out there. Horses that have shown form on good ground might struggle, while those with proven soft ground form will come into their own. The extended distances will also play havoc with some horses' stamina reserves.
Supporting Cast Worth Following
In the opening Class 3 handicap hurdle, Wellington Arch looks overpriced despite topping the weights. Jonjo O'Neill Jr. has been riding with real confidence lately, and the Jonjo O'Neill stable knows how to prepare horses for these testing conditions. The seven-year-old has distance form and should handle the ground.
The novices' chase at 3:35 looks a two-horse race between Saint Davy and Milcree. Saint Davy gets the nod for the O'Neill team again, with course and distance form that makes him hard to oppose. Danny McMenamin on Milcree will provide the main opposition, and Nicky Richards' charge has been progressive over fences.
Mares' Bumper to Close
The mares' National Hunt flat race to close the card is always worth a look for future stars. Boum Town Rosy for Venetia Williams catches the eye - the Williams yard has a tremendous record with their bumper horses, and Charlie Deutsch's booking suggests confidence.
Best Bets and Ones to Watch
Looking at the full Towcester racecard, my strongest fancies are Deafening Silence in the Midlands Grand National and Wellington Arch in the opening handicap hurdle. Both have the stamina and ground preferences to excel in these conditions.
For each-way value, Red Risk in the Class 2 hurdle looks overpriced, while Saint Davy should take plenty of beating in the novices' chase. The soft ground will be the great leveller throughout the card - those horses that handle it will thrive, while others will struggle to get home over these extended distances.
It's going to be a day for the brave, the bold, and the stamina-laden. The cream should rise to the top in these testing conditions, making for some cracking racing entertainment. Sláinte to that!
