Ground Conditions Set the Scene
Saturday's card at Aintree presents us with proper winter conditions in March - soft going with a few heavy patches still lurking on the back straight of the hurdle track. Now that's what I call National Hunt racing weather, and it'll separate the wheat from the chaff right enough.
The ground will play to the stamina types and those with proven form in testing conditions. Don't be backing any speed merchants today - this is about getting your head down and grinding it out over the final furlong. The Aintree racecard is packed with opportunities for the shrewd punter who knows their mud lovers from their good ground flyers.
The Ayrshire Handicap Chase Takes Centre Stage
The feature race is undoubtedly the £18,000 Ayrshire Handicap Chase at 15:55, a Class 3 affair over an extended two and a half miles that should provide the afternoon's highlight. With just six runners, it's a select field but one packed with quality.
Pour Les Filles heads the weights on 134, trained by Mickey Bowen and partnered by Shane Fenelon. At eight years old, she's at the perfect age for a mare in this grade, but that rating suggests the handicapper has her well sussed.
More interesting is Classic Maestro for Jennie Candlish. The eight-year-old is only 3lbs lower in the weights but could be unexposed at this level. Luke Scott takes the ride, and this partnership has been clicking lately.
But the one that catches my eye is Primoz from the Lucinda Russell stable. Rated 122, he gets a handy 12lbs from the topweight, and crucially carries the 'C' - he's won at the course before. In these conditions, that experience could prove golden, and Derek Fox knows every blade of grass around here.
Novice Hurdle Opens Proceedings
The opening 13:32 Novices' Hurdle over two miles four furlongs sets up nicely, with Tashkhan looking the class act on ratings. The eight-year-old carries a mark of 126 and has Brian Hughes in the saddle - that's a combination to fear in any company.
However, don't overlook Out of The Woods from the Russell yard. The six-year-old may be rated 8lbs lower, but he's both course and distance winner - those double 'C,D' credentials are worth their weight in gold on ground like this. Conner McCann takes the ride and knows how to get the best from a Russell-trained runner.
Gatineau Park for Kim Bailey splits the pair on ratings at 125, with Ciaran Gethings booked. Bailey's horses have been running with credit lately, and this lad could outrun his odds.
Mares Get Their Moment
The 14:47 Mares' Handicap Hurdle for the Ayrshire Yeomanry Cup might only have four runners, but it's worth £15,000 to the winner. Fox's Fancy looks the obvious choice on ratings, but in a small field like this, the value might lie elsewhere.
Keep On Cobbling has the 'D' next to her name - distance winning form - and gets the services of Ciaran Gethings again. Henry Daly's six-year-old could be well handicapped off 102.
Tread Softly Now is an interesting outsider. The seven-year-old has course form and is trained by Ian Duncan, who doesn't send many south unless they've got a right chance. At 98, she could be overpriced in a small field.
Later Races Offer Value Opportunities
The 15:20 handicap hurdle over two miles brings together eight runners, with the Russell team mob-handed again. Litleangel Duseuil tops the weights on 120, but it's Triple Crown Ted who appeals more. The six-year-old has distance form and is 6lbs better off with his stablemate.
Ginger Mail is a grizzled 10-year-old warrior who's won at course and distance. Bruce Lynn takes the ride for N.W. Alexander, and these older horses often relish the soft conditions when the younger legs start to tire.
The marathon 16:30 novices' hurdle over three miles will test stamina to the limit. Briery Butterfly heads the market, but Kalo Athena has distance form and gets the champion jockey Brian Hughes - that booking speaks volumes.
Best Bets and Ones to Watch
In conditions like these, experience and proven soft ground form trump raw ability every time. My banker of the day is Primoz in the feature Ayrshire Chase - the combination of course form, conditions, and that handy weight makes him hard to oppose.
For value, I'm sweet on Out of The Woods in the opener. Course and distance form plus the Russell factor makes him overpriced, and Conner McCann is riding with confidence.
In the mares' race, Tread Softly Now could be the surprise package at bigger odds. Small fields can throw up shocks, and her course form gives her every chance of placing at minimum.
The soft ground will be the great leveller today - back the mudlarks and leave the speed merchants for another day. It's going to be a proper test of stamina and jumping, just the way National Hunt racing should be. Sláinte to that!
