Welsh Hills Beckon on Proper Jumping Ground
Right, settle in with your Sunday pint because we've got a cracking afternoon's sport ahead at Ffos Las. The going is reading good to soft, soft in places after that vertical draining work, and by God, it's going to be proper jumping weather that'll sort the wheat from the chaff. Seven races of National Hunt action where stamina and jumping ability will count for everything, and the pretty boys who can't handle the mud will be found wanting.
The Welsh track has always been a fair test, and with conditions like these, we're going to see some real racing. The Ffos Las racecard is packed with opportunities for those who know how to read the signs, and there's value to be found if you're willing to look beyond the obvious choices.
Feature Race: Tommy Williams Memorial Handicap Hurdle
The Tommy Williams Memorial at 15:50 is our feature attraction - a Class 4 handicap hurdle over the extended two and a half miles that'll test every sinew. With £8,700 on offer, it's drawn a competitive field of 13, though a few have already cried off, which tells you something about the conditions.
Milldam heads the weights for Jamie Snowden and Gavin Sheehan, and this eight-year-old gelding has course form in the book. Rated 122, he's the one they all have to beat, but that's a fair chunk of weight to be shouldering around here in the mud. Snowden's horses have been in decent nick lately, and Sheehan knows his way around this track better than most.
The danger has to be Shabalko d'Herm for the Twiston-Davies clan. Sam Twiston-Davies takes the ride on this six-year-old who's unexposed over this trip in these conditions. The French breeding suggests he'll relish the softer ground, and at the same rating as the favourite, he looks overpriced in the betting.
Mares' Novices' Hurdle: Experience Counts
The opener at 14:03 is a mares' novices' limited handicap that could throw up some surprises. Polkaface tops the ratings at 95 for Ben Case, with Sam Twiston-Davies again in the saddle. This six-year-old has been knocking on the door and looks ready to break through.
But don't overlook Miss Kassiopi with the double [D] next to her name - that's distance form, and Harry Bannister knows exactly what he's got underneath him. Richard Bandey's mare might be giving weight away, but she's proven at this trip and that counts for plenty when the ground is testing.
Feet On The Ground catches the eye for Fergal O'Brien and Tom Broughton. This eight-year-old has been around the block and won't be fazed by the conditions. O'Brien's string are going well, and this one could outrun her odds.
Maiden Hurdle: Henderson's Heavyweights
The 14:38 maiden hurdle is where Nicky Henderson flexes his muscles with two runners. Into The Blue and Grand Teton both carry the Seven Barrows colours, with Nico de Boinville and James Bowen respectively doing the steering.
But the one that's got my attention is Knead A Win for Sam Thomas. Rated 122, this six-year-old is a cut above these on paper, and Dylan Johnston is a jockey going places. If this one is anywhere near right, the others are playing for second money.
Doujadou for Rebecca Curtis can't be dismissed either. Sean Bowen takes the ride on this 116-rated sort who should handle the ground like a duck to water.
Chase Action: Course Specialists Come to the Fore
The two chase races later in the card are where we'll see some proper jumping, and course form will be crucial. In the 16:20 handicap chase, Boston Joe has both course and distance form marked up - that's gold dust in conditions like these. This ten-year-old warrior for Rebecca Curtis knows every blade of grass around here.
Golden Millie is another with course form, and Charlie Deutsch's 7lb claim will help in the weights. Don't be put off by the mare carrying just 89 in the ratings - she's a fighter who'll stay all day.
The later chase at 16:50 sees Vision de Maine as the class act for David Pipe. With distance form and Jack Tudor up, this seven-year-old should have too much class for these, even giving weight away.
Closing Thoughts: Value in the Mud
The ground is going to be the great leveller today, and those horses with proven form in testing conditions will have a significant advantage. The vertical draining might have helped, but make no mistake - this is going to be a slog, and only the genuine stayers will prevail.
Best Bets of the Day:
- Shabalko d'Herm in the Tommy Williams Memorial - value against the favourite
- Knead A Win in the maiden hurdle - class will tell
- Boston Joe in the first chase - course specialist in his element
- Feet On The Ground each-way in the mares' novices' - experience counts
Remember, soft ground racing is about stamina, jumping ability, and knowing your horse. The flashy types who look good on the all-weather won't cut it here. Back the battlers, respect the ground, and you might just find yourself counting the winnings come evening. Sláinte!
