Welsh Wednesday Warfare on Soft Turf
Right then, racing fans, we're heading west to Ffos Las for what promises to be a proper slog through the Welsh mud. The going is reading soft to good to soft in places, which is trainer-speak for "bring your wellies and back the stayers." With soil moisture sitting at 58% from Monday's reading, this is going to separate the wheat from the chaff faster than you can say "stamina pedigree."
Six races on today's Ffos Las racecard, and while we're not exactly looking at Cheltenham-quality fare, there's honest prize money on offer and some intriguing puzzles to solve. The feature race has to be the Francky du Berlais Novices' Chase at 16:20, worth nearly nine grand to the winner and featuring some proper animals stepping up in trip.
The Feature: Francky du Berlais Novices' Chase (16:20)
Four runners, but what a quartet they are. Hell Hound tops the ratings at 108 for Neil Mulholland, and there's a reason this lad carries that mark. He's been knocking on the door in better company than this, and the step up to nearly three miles on testing ground should play right into his hands. Conor O'Farrell takes the ride, and he knows his way around this Welsh venue.
But here's where it gets interesting - Axel Bleue for the Bowen clan is only 2lb behind on the ratings and has James Bowen in the saddle. The Bowens know this track like the back of their hand, and when they fancy one here, you ignore them at your peril. This fellow has been progressive over fences and the soft conditions won't inconvenience him one bit.
Loki's Mischief brings course form to the table, which is worth its weight in gold around here. Chester Williams has done a grand job with this one, and at 106, he's bang in this contest. The question mark is whether he's got the engine for this extended trip, but the course knowledge could prove decisive.
Course Specialists and Soft Ground Artists
Looking across the card, the course and distance winners are jumping off the page like salmon up a waterfall. In the opener at 14:50, both Lemon Leaf and Lion of The Desert have winning course form, and that's not to be sniffed at.
Tom Hutsby partners Lemon Leaf for Olly Murphy, and this combination has been in decent form. The six-year-old is rated 104, just a pound behind the topweight Red Rubio, and crucially has won over course and distance. On this testing ground, that experience could be the difference between collecting and watching from the also-rans.
Joe Anderson takes the reins on Lion of The Desert for Grace Harris, another with the precious C&D notation next to his name. Rated 102, he's getting 3lb from the topweight and has every chance if handling the conditions.
Don't completely dismiss Red Rubio though - Ned Fox is a canny pilot and Clive Boultbee-Brooks wouldn't be sending him here without confidence. At 105, he's the best horse in the race on paper, but paper doesn't get muddy, does it?
The Ground Game Changers
This soft going is going to be the great leveller today, and it's worth noting which trainers excel in these conditions. Mickey Bowen has three runners across the card, and he knows how to get them ready for a battle in the mud. Shane Fenelon rides for the stable in multiple races, including the interesting Green Asset in the 15:50.
Green Asset is a four-year-old rated 93 - the joint-highest in that limited handicap hurdle - and the combination of youth and ability could be potent. The trip of 2m 7f on this ground will be a proper test of stamina, but four-year-olds often have that raw enthusiasm that carries them through when the going gets tough.
In the mares' contests, Bridget Mary for Rebecca Curtis brings both course and distance form to the 16:50 chase. Rian Corcoran takes the ride, and at eight years old, she's seasoned enough to handle whatever the Welsh weather throws at her. Rated 94, she's the class act in a competitive mares' handicap.
Birthday Boys and Betting Angles
The 15:20 novice hurdle is celebrating young Donnacha Fenelon's first birthday - fair play to the family for marking the occasion with a race! Fiskardo brings distance form and represents the in-form Mickey Bowen stable with Shane Fenelon aboard. In a race where none of the five runners carry ratings, course knowledge and stable confidence become even more crucial.
One Knight for Emma Lavelle is another with distance form, and the Lavelle yard has been among the winners recently. Cameron Johnstone-Baker takes the ride, and this could be the type of race where a well-schooled sort with jumping experience makes the difference.
Tom's Verdicts
Best Bet: Hell Hound (16:20) - The class horse in the feature race with conditions to suit and a jockey who won't panic when the mud starts flying.
Each-Way Special: Lemon Leaf (14:50) - Course and distance winner with Olly Murphy's stable in good form. The soft ground plays to her strengths.
Outsider Alert: Green Asset (15:50) - Young legs, decent rating, and the Bowen stable know how to win at this venue. Could be overpriced in the market.
Remember, when the going gets tough at places like Ffos Las, it's not always the fancied runners who prevail. Sometimes it's the honest battler who relishes a scrap in the mud. Keep your stakes sensible, enjoy the racing, and may the Welsh hills smile upon your selections. Sláinte!
