A Stepping Stone to Doncaster Glory — The Race That Matters

Right, settle in and let me tell you about a race that might look like a quiet Thursday afternoon affair at Chester but is anything but. The Betfred St Leger Trial Novice Stakes at 14:45 on Thursday 9th July is one of those delicious little puzzles that the Flat calendar throws up — eight unexposed three-year-olds, a mile and three furlongs and nearly two hundred yards of Chester's famous loop, and a free entry to the 2026 Betfred St Leger waiting for the winner. That's not a consolation prize, lads. That's a golden ticket worth serious money, and you can bet your last tenner that every trainer in this field knows exactly what's at stake.

Now, I'm a jumps man by trade — you know that — but when a race has stamina pedigrees, a demanding track, and genuine Classic implications written all over it, Tom O'Brien is paying attention. Chester is a proper test. That tight, left-handed circuit with its long run-in demands a horse that truly stays, that relaxes beautifully in the early stages, and that has the class to quicken when the gaps appear. On Good to Firm ground — watered to keep the soil moisture at 31, so it won't be a dust bowl — we're looking at a premium surface that will reward quality movers. Let's get into the runners.

Contender-by-Contender Breakdown

Count Bezukhov (JP O'Brien / Billy Loughnane, Draw 3)

Here's your headline act, and fair play to him. Count Bezukhov carries the Joseph Patrick O'Brien banner and that alone demands respect. JP has been sending horses to British tracks with increasing ambition, and the fact that he's supplemented this colt with a tongue tie (headgear: T) tells you something — there's been a bit of work done to get this lad to settle and travel. He's unrated, which means we're working somewhat in the dark, but JP O'Brien doesn't ship a horse to Chester for a Class 2 without genuine belief in its ability. Billy Loughnane takes the ride, and the young Irishman has been in cracking form — he's sharp, he's brave, and he knows how to ride a galloping track. The tongue tie is the one question mark. Is it masking a tendency to pull hard? On a tight track like Chester, that could be costly. But if he settles? He's the one they all have to beat.

Shoof Baeed (Charlie Johnston / Connor Beasley, Draw 7)

Charlie Johnston saddles two in this race, which is always an interesting dynamic. Shoof Baeed carries the name of one of the great recent stallions — Baeed's progeny are worth watching closely as they develop, and a mile and a half trip on a galloping-style circuit is exactly where you'd expect his offspring to thrive. Drawn seven of eight, which at Chester can be a slight inconvenience given the tight nature of the track, but Connor Beasley is an experienced hand who won't panic. Unrated, like the favourite, so this is another unknown quantity — but Johnston's second string often surprises when the yard is in form. Keep an eye on the market moves for this lad.

According To Mark (Edward Bethell / Daniel Tudhope, Draw 2)

Now here's a horse I have a soft spot for. According To Mark has an official rating of 84 — the highest of the rated runners — and Edward Bethell is quietly becoming one of the most astute trainers in the north. He finds winning opportunities with clinical precision, and the fact that he's aimed this gelding at a race with Classic entry implications suggests he genuinely believes the horse has the engine for it. Draw two is lovely at Chester — you're tucked in, you save ground on every bend, and Daniel Tudhope is one of the most tactically intelligent jockeys in the country. He'll know exactly how to exploit that draw. The 9-4 weight versus the top weights' 9-10 gives him a six-pound pull, and on a track that rewards those who travel well, this could be a serious player.

Hatteen (Andrew Balding / PJ McDonald, Draw 6)

Hatteen represents the Andrew Balding operation, and Balding is a trainer who has a tremendous record in staying races and Classic trials. Rated 82, drawn six, with PJ McDonald in the saddle — that's a formidable combination. McDonald is a man who rides with his head, not just his hands, and he'll have a clear plan from the off. Balding's horses tend to be well-prepared for their targets, and if Hatteen has been pointed here deliberately, he'll be fit and ready. Don't dismiss him at any price above 5/1.

Poker (K.R. Burke / David Egan, Draw 1)

Karl Burke. Draw one. David Egan. On paper, that's a seriously attractive combination for Chester. Poker gets the coveted rail draw, and Burke is a trainer who absolutely maximises every advantage — he's sharp, he's professional, and he doesn't run horses for the fun of it. Rated 80, so he's giving a few pounds away to the top weights, but the draw advantage at Chester can be worth more than a few pounds over this distance. Egan is a quality jockey who rides Chester well. If the pace is strong early and Poker can slot in behind the leaders from stall one, he could be delivering his challenge right when it matters most.

Going and Draw — The Chester Variables

Let's talk about the track, because at Chester, the draw and the going are everything. Good to Firm — watered, soil moisture at 31 — means a fast, true surface that will suit horses with a clean, efficient action. It won't be a slog, so stamina alone won't be enough. You need class and a turn of foot.

The draw at Chester over this distance heavily favours low numbers. Stalls one and two — Poker and According To Mark — get the immediate rail advantage and don't have to fight for position. Stall seven (Shoof Baeed) and stall eight (Saifo) will need to work harder to find a comfortable berth. Count Bezukhov in stall three is fine — close enough to the rail without being boxed in. This is a significant factor and should influence your assessment of each runner's chances.

Value Picks and Dangers

The danger to Count Bezukhov, if he's sent off favourite as expected, comes from multiple directions:

  • According To Mark — the draw, the jockey, the trainer form, and a rating that proves he can perform. Each-way value if priced 4/1 or bigger.
  • Poker — stall one, Karl Burke, David Egan. The holy trinity of Chester advantages. Could easily outrun his odds.
  • Hatteen — Balding and McDonald is a combination that wins races it's supposed to win. Don't sleep on him.
  • Sea And Sun — Johnston's second string, drawn four, unrated. The unknown quantity that could emerge from the shadows.

Tom's Verdict — My Selection for the 14:45 at Chester

Right, here's where I put my money where my mouth is. Count Bezukhov is the obvious selection and I won't pretend otherwise — JP O'Brien doesn't send horses across the water without a reason, and Billy Loughnane is too good a jockey to be wasted on a no-hoper. If the tongue tie does its job and he settles in the early stages, his class should see him home.

But my each-way shout — the one I'd be whispering to you over a pint — is According To Mark. Draw two, Daniel Tudhope in the saddle, Edward Bethell quietly confident, and a rating of 84 that proves he's the real deal among the rated runners. He's a gelding, which means no Classic future beyond this trial, but Bethell has clearly decided this is his target and trained him for it. At anything above 4/1, he's an each-way play all day long.

My Selection: Count Bezukhov (win) / According To Mark (each-way)

Check the full Chester racecard for all the details, market moves, and any late declarations before you have your wager. Good luck, and may the best horse win — preferably the one you've backed.

Who Is the Favourite for the Betfred St Leger Trial Novice Stakes 2026?

Count Bezukhov, trained by Joseph Patrick O'Brien and ridden by Billy Loughnane, is expected to be sent off as the market leader. The JP O'Brien yard rarely travels to British tracks without serious intent, and Count Bezukhov's profile — unrated, unexposed, with a tongue tie fitted to help him settle — suggests a horse with significant potential. That said, the market will be worth watching closely in the hours before the race for any significant moves.

How Much Does the Winner Receive in the Betfred St Leger Trial Novice Stakes?

The race carries a total prize fund of £80,000, making it a richly valuable Class 2 contest for three-year-olds. Beyond the prize money, the winner also receives a free initial entry to the 2026 Betfred St Leger at Doncaster — a Classic race worth considerably more in prestige and potential earnings. That bonus entry is what elevates this race above a standard novice stakes and explains the quality of the field assembled.

Is Chester a Good Track for Low-Drawn Horses in the St Leger Trial?

Absolutely, and it's one of the key factors in this race. Chester is a famously tight, left-handed circuit, and over a distance of 1m 3f 197y, low draws are a genuine advantage. Horses drawn in stalls one and two — Poker and According To Mark — will hug the rail from the outset, save significant ground on the bends, and avoid the traffic problems that can affect wider-drawn runners. It's not an absolute guarantee, but all else being equal, you'd rather be drawn one than eight at Chester, and that factor should be priced into your assessment of each runner's chances.