Setting the Scene: Why the July Stakes Matters
Right, pull up a stool and let me tell you something — the Newbury July Stakes might not have the same razzmatazz as Royal Ascot, but don't be fooled for a single second. This is a Group 2 contest worth £125,000 and, more importantly, it's one of the sharpest early-season pointers to where the elite two-year-old sprinters are headed. Horses who shine here in July often find themselves lining up in the Middle Park or the Cheveley Park come the autumn, and the very best go on to Classic consideration. So when only four colts are declared, you'd better believe every single one of them has been aimed here with serious intent.
We're racing over six furlongs on Good to Firm ground at Newbury on Thursday 9 July 2026, and with a small but select field, there's nowhere to hide. Every yard of that straight six will be scrutinised. Let's get stuck in.
Race Analysis: The Contenders Dissected
Inner City Blues (Draw 3) — William Buick / Charlie Appleby
I'll be straight with you — this is the one that has me most excited, and the one that has me most nervous in equal measure. Inner City Blues carries no official rating, which means he's either lightly raced or making a swift rise through the ranks on the back of impressive early form. What we do know is that he's a distance winner, he's trained by Charlie Appleby — a man who doesn't send horses to Group 2s for the good of his health — and he's got William Buick in the saddle. That combination alone would have me reaching for my wallet.
Appleby and Buick are the gold standard in the Godolphin operation right now. When they turn up at a race like this with a horse who has already won over the trip, you take notice. The absence of a rating suggests this lad hasn't run in a handicap or hasn't been rated yet, which screams potential. He could be anything. That's both the beauty and the danger of backing him — you're buying into the unknown. But with this team, the unknown tends to be rather good.
Adaay of Scarlett (Draw 2) — Oisin Murphy / Hugo Palmer
Adaay of Scarlett is the top-rated runner in the field at 105, and he's a course winner to boot. That's a potent combination. Hugo Palmer is a trainer who knows his way around a big occasion, and Oisin Murphy is as good as it gets when it comes to riding a race with tactical intelligence. Drawing stall 2 is no hardship on this track, and the Good to Firm ground should suit a horse with that kind of rating — you don't get to 105 as a juvenile without being pretty sharp on top-of-the-ground conditions.
The course form is a significant tick. Newbury's straight six has its own rhythm and horses who've already navigated it successfully carry a genuine edge. Don't dismiss this lad — he's the one Inner City Blues has to beat, and that 10-pound rating advantage over the next-best in the field tells its own story.
Hickory Lad (Draw 4) — Sam James / Phillip Makin
Hickory Lad is trained by Phillip Makin and ridden by Sam James, and at a rating of 95 he's the second-highest rated in the field. He's a distance winner, so the six furlongs holds no fears. Makin is a trainer on the rise, operating out of the north with quiet confidence, and Sam James is a jockey who rides with real purpose. Drawing widest of the four in stall 4 on a straight course is not ideal, but it's not a disaster either — with only four runners, the draw becomes less of a lottery.
Here's the honest truth though: Hickory Lad is facing a step up in class here, and while the form flags are encouraging, he'll need to find a significant chunk of improvement to trouble the market leaders. He's the each-way outsider of the piece for me, but don't rule out a bold show from a horse who clearly handles the trip.
Persian Spring (Draw 1) — Jamie Spencer / Richard Hannon
Persian Spring is the lowest-rated runner at 88, trained by Richard Hannon and ridden by the wily Jamie Spencer. Now, I have enormous respect for Hannon — he produces two-year-olds like a factory, and his juveniles often improve dramatically with racing. But an official mark of 88 against a 105-rated rival is a mountain to climb, even in a four-runner field.
What Persian Spring does have is a distance win on his CV and the supreme tactical brain of Jamie Spencer aboard. Spencer has ridden more Group races than most people have had hot dinners, and if there's a pace scenario to exploit, he'll find it. Drawn in stall 1, he could dictate terms if he gets away cleanly. Don't write him off entirely — Hannon horses have a habit of turning up at big meetings with something in reserve.
Going and Draw: Does It Matter With Four Runners?
The Good to Firm ground at Newbury is ideal for a six-furlong juvenile contest. It rewards horses with a quick, clean action and favours those who travel well through their races rather than grinding it out. Adaay of Scarlett's rating of 105 was almost certainly earned on similar ground, and Inner City Blues — if he's a Godolphin horse bred for speed — will have no issues with it either.
As for the draw, with only four runners spread across stalls 1 to 4, the advantage is minimal. On a straight track like Newbury's six furlongs, there's no significant bias to exploit. All four colts will have a fair crack at it, and it'll come down to class, pace and who wants it most on the day.
Value Picks and Dangers
- Inner City Blues — the unknown quantity with elite connections. Could be anything.
- Adaay of Scarlett — top-rated, course winner, strong jockey booking. The one to beat on paper.
- Persian Spring — each-way interest only if Spencer conjures something from the front.
- Hickory Lad — honest performer but likely needs the others to underperform.
Tom's Verdict: My Selection for the July Stakes
Look, I've gone back and forth on this one, and I'll tell you why — it's not often you see a horse with no official rating line up in a Group 2 and have you scratching your head whether they might be the best thing in the race. But that's exactly what Inner City Blues represents. Charlie Appleby doesn't send horses to Newbury in July to make up the numbers. William Buick doesn't climb aboard a two-year-old in a Group 2 unless the homework has been done. The distance win suggests he's already proven himself over the trip, and the absence of a rating hints at a horse who's been brought along carefully and is now ready to announce himself on the big stage.
My selection is Inner City Blues. Yes, Adaay of Scarlett is the highest-rated and the course winner, and I have nothing but respect for Hugo Palmer and Oisin Murphy. But there's something about the Appleby-Buick combination turning up with a lightly raced unknown that gets the blood pumping. If he's half as good as the team think he is, he wins this going away.
Check out the full Newbury racecard for Thursday's card and get your bets on early. This one could be over before the bookies blink.
Who is the favourite for the Kingdom of Bahrain July Stakes 2026?
Based on official ratings, Adaay of Scarlett (rated 105) enters as the form pick and is likely to be a short-priced favourite with most bookmakers. However, the unrated Inner City Blues from the Charlie Appleby yard could attract significant market support once betting opens, given the strength of his connections and his previous distance win.
Is Good to Firm ground a concern for any of the July Stakes runners?
Not particularly. All four declared runners are juvenile colts who have already shown their best form, and Good to Firm at Newbury in July is a perfectly standard surface for this type of race. Adaay of Scarlett's lofty rating of 105 suggests he's thrived on similar ground, and Godolphin horses trained by Appleby are invariably well suited to quick conditions. Persian Spring is the one to watch — if the ground is on the faster end of Good to Firm, Hannon's colt may need to be at his absolute best.
What happens to the July Stakes winner next?
A winner of the Kingdom of Bahrain July Stakes at Newbury in early July typically has the autumn juvenile Classics firmly in their sights. The Middle Park Stakes (Group 1, Newmarket, October) over six furlongs is the natural target for a speedy type, while the more versatile winners may step up in trip for the Dewhurst Stakes or even begin to be considered for Classic trials the following spring. For connections like Godolphin or Hugo Palmer, a Group 2 win here in July is very much a stepping stone, not a destination.
