The Stage is Set for a Proper Scrap
Right, settle in with your pint because we've got ourselves a cracking renewal of the Sussex Champion Hurdle at Nottingham this Sunday. Now, don't let the name fool you – this isn't your Cheltenham Champion Hurdle, but it's a proper Class 2 handicap that'll separate the wheat from the chaff over a testing 1m 7f 195y.
The £65,000 prize pot has attracted a field of 14 that's as competitive as a Cork pub argument, and with the whole course having been vertidrained since their last fixture, we're looking at conditions that could throw the form book out the window faster than you can say 'each-way yankee'.
This race has always been a cracking betting medium, the kind where a shrewd punter can find proper value if they know what they're looking for. And after studying this field like a seminary student with his prayer book, I've got some strong opinions to share.
The Market Leaders Under the Microscope
Serious Challenge sits atop the weights with 12-0, and fair play to him – that 135 rating didn't come from nowhere. Fergal O'Brien's six-year-old has the course and distance form in the book, which counts for plenty round here. Jonathan Burke takes the ride, and he's a jockey who knows his way around a tactical race like this. The gelding's been knocking on the door in some decent company, and that top weight might not be the burden it first appears – sometimes the handicapper gets it spot on.
Mondo Man for the Moore brothers is the one that has me scratching my head. This five-year-old carries 11-12 off a mark of 133, and with Caoilin Quinn doing the steering, he's got the tools for the job. Course and distance winner too, which you can't argue with. But here's the thing – I've seen this horse flatter to deceive more often than a politician at election time. He's got ability, no doubt, but consistency? That's another story entirely.
Helnwein represents Alan King, and if you know anything about King's string, you'll know they don't turn up for the ride. This eight-year-old veteran has been there and done it, and Tom Bellamy aboard is no accident. At 11-11, he's getting a decent pull in the weights from the top two, and experience counts for plenty in a race like this where tactical nous can trump raw ability.
The Dark Horses Worth Your Attention
Now here's where it gets interesting, and where the smart money might be lurking. Inside Man for Jane Williams is sitting pretty on 11-3, and that's a mark that screams 'well handicapped' to me. This six-year-old has the distance form, and Williams has been quietly going about her business with some lovely touches this season.
General Briar is the one that's got my attention though. Chris Gordon doesn't send many to Nottingham unless he fancies his chances, and this seven-year-old has both course and distance form. At 10-11, he's getting lumps of weight from the market leaders, and Nico de Boinville in the saddle is never a negative. Sometimes the best bets are hiding in plain sight.
Don't sleep on Fasol either – any horse trained by Paul Nicholls and ridden by his daughter Olive deserves respect. The tongue-tie goes on, which suggests they're looking for improvement, and at 10-13, he's not overburdened.
Going Conditions: The Great Leveller
Here's where things get properly interesting. That vertidrainage work means we're essentially flying blind on how the ground will play. Fresh drainage can create a surface that's deceptive – it might look good on top but ride completely different underneath.
The weather between now and Sunday will be crucial, but I'm expecting ground that'll favour horses with a bit of stamina and those who can handle changing conditions. The front-runners might find it tougher than usual if the surface is holding, which could set things up for the hold-up merchants.
This is where experience and a good jockey become worth their weight in gold. Brendan Powell on Hamlet's Night knows these conditions better than most, and Robbie David aboard Intellotto is another who adapts well to whatever's thrown at him.
Who should you back in the Sussex Champion Hurdle?
Right, here's where I nail my colours to the mast. While Serious Challenge will likely start favourite and has obvious claims, I'm not convinced he's well enough handicapped to give weight away to this field.
My selection is General Briar at what should be decent odds. He's got everything going for him – course and distance form, a trainer who doesn't waste time with hopeless causes, a top-class jockey, and crucially, he's well treated by the handicapper. The freshly worked ground might just play into his hands if it rides softer than it looks.
For the each-way players, Inside Man makes serious appeal at bigger odds. Jane Williams' horses have been running with credit lately, and this looks like a lovely opportunity for a horse who's been campaigned with a race like this in mind.
What are the key factors for the Sussex Champion Hurdle?
The ground conditions will be absolutely crucial given the recent drainage work. Horses with proven stamina over the trip will have a significant advantage, especially if the surface rides testing. Course experience at Nottingham is always valuable – it's a track that catches plenty of horses out.
Which jockey has the best chance of winning?
Nico de Boinville aboard General Briar gets my vote. He's a master tactician who excels in competitive handicaps like this, and his mount looks well treated by the weights. Jonathan Burke on the favourite also commands respect, but he'll need to overcome that hefty burden at the top of the handicap.
