The Stage Is Set at Newbury

Saturday racing in early July doesn't get much better than this. The sun-baked straights of Newbury play host to one of the most competitive Class 2 handicaps of the summer, and the Betway Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap Stakes at 16:25 is shaping up to be an absolute cracker. With £45,000 in prize money on the table, ten hungry runners declared, and the going riding Good to Firm, expect fast times, bold front-runners, and a finish that'll have you on your feet.

This is the kind of race that defines summer afternoons at Newbury — a wide-open seven-furlong contest spanning a rating band of 86 to 105, with three-year-olds rubbing shoulders against battle-hardened six-year-olds. Handicapper's nightmare. Punter's paradise. Let's get into it.

The Leading Contenders

No Retreat (Draw 5) — The One to Beat

You simply cannot ignore No Retreat. George Scott's five-year-old gelding comes in as the top-rated runner in the field at an official rating of 107, carrying 10st 4lb — a serious burden, but one that speaks to just how good this horse is. Tom Marquand takes the ride, and there are few better in the business at producing a well-timed finish on a flat, galloping track like this. Stall 5 is a lovely draw — bang in the middle of the action, with options to race prominently or slot in behind. The big question is whether that weight will blunt his finishing kick on what should be quick ground. If Scott has him primed for this, he's the one they all have to beat.

Crown Board (Draw 10) — Wide Draw Worry, but Class Counts

Jane Chapple-Hyam's six-year-old Crown Board has proven himself at this distance before, and Silvestre De Sousa is a jockey who knows exactly how to ride a race from a wide gate — he won't panic. Rated 104 and carrying 10st 1lb, this gelding is no pushover. The concern is stall 10 on a seven-furlong straight track; he'll need to use up energy early to find a decent position. That said, De Sousa's tactical brain could turn this into an asset if the pace is strong enough to stretch the field. Don't write him off.

Royal Zabeel (Draw 7) — Course and Distance Form Screams

Here's where it gets interesting. Royal Zabeel carries the golden flags — course winner, distance winner — and Michael Appleby's five-year-old has clearly thrived at Newbury over this exact trip before. Jason Watson picks up the ride from stall 7, a perfectly acceptable draw, and at a rating of 101 carrying 9st 12lb, he's got a few pounds in hand compared to the top weights. When a horse has already shown it can win at a course and distance, you sit up and pay attention. Royal Zabeel ticks so many boxes here — he could easily be the value play of the race.

Silver Ghost (Draw 3) — The Filly Who Loves This Place

Don't sleep on Silver Ghost. Emma Lavelle's four-year-old filly is the only non-gelding in the field outside of Golden Redemption, and she arrives with both course and distance wins to her name. Rated 93 and carrying just 9st 4lb, she gets in relatively lightly, and stall 3 gives David Egan a great chance to find cover early and pounce late. Fillies taking on the geldings in these competitive summer handicaps can often be underestimated by the market. This one deserves serious respect.

One Smack Mac (Draw 8) — The Headgear Wildcard

Jamie Osborne has slapped a hood on One Smack Mac for this one, and that's always a flag worth noting. The four-year-old is rated 98 and has William Carver in the saddle — a combination that could spring a surprise if the headgear sharpens him up. Stall 8 is workable on a straight track, and if Carver gets him travelling smoothly in the first half of the race, the hood could unlock something we haven't seen before. Treat him as a lively each-way outsider.

Akkadian Thunder (Draw 1) — Low Draw Danger

David O'Meara knows how to win summer handicaps, and Akkadian Thunder — a distance winner rated 91 — gets the rails from stall 1. Daniel Tudhope is an excellent jockey on quick ground, and if this race develops into a true test of stamina over the seven furlongs, the low draw could be a significant advantage. He's carrying just 9st 2lb, which gives him plenty of scope. Don't dismiss him as a back-end runner.

Going and Draw Analysis

The Good to Firm ground at Newbury is a crucial factor here. This is a flat, straight seven-furlong track, and on quick ground, the pace tends to be relentless from the off. Horses who can travel smoothly and produce a sustained gallop are at a premium — those who need soft ground to show their best will struggle.

On a straight course like Newbury, the draw is less of a lottery than at tracks with tight bends, but there are still patterns worth noting:

  • Low draws (1-4) can be advantageous if the pace is even — Akkadian Thunder and Silver Ghost both benefit here.
  • Middle draws (5-7) are the sweet spot on Good to Firm ground — No Retreat and Royal Zabeel are ideally positioned.
  • High draws (8-10) require more tactical awareness — Crown Board and One Smack Mac will need their jockeys at their sharpest.

Expect the early pace to be strong with Akkadian Thunder likely to press from stall 1. That could set up perfectly for the closers, particularly Royal Zabeel and Silver Ghost.

Value Picks and Dangers

The market will likely make No Retreat the favourite, and rightly so on ratings. But at 10st 4lb on fast ground, there's every chance the handicapper has caught up with him. The value in this race lies with horses who carry less weight and boast proven course form.

Royal Zabeel is the standout value proposition — course and distance form, a sympathetic weight, and a jockey who rides Newbury well. Silver Ghost is the each-way banker at a bigger price — lightly weighted, proven at the track, and in the hands of a jockey who will ride her cold and pounce late.

The danger to watch? Goldmoyne for James Owen — the trainer also saddles Houquetot, so he has two strings to his bow, and Goldmoyne's distance-winning form at 88 means he's the kind of unexposed runner who could outrun his odds under Mason Paetel.

My Selection: Royal Zabeel Each-Way

When a horse has already won at the course and distance, you need a very good reason to look elsewhere — and I haven't found one. Royal Zabeel is my selection for the Betway Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap Stakes. Michael Appleby has him in the right race, Jason Watson knows this track, and at 9st 12lb he's nicely treated compared to the top weights. The Good to Firm ground should suit, stall 7 is ideal, and his course and distance credentials make him the most complete package in the field.

Each-way at whatever price the market offers — this is a horse who already knows how to win here. Back him with confidence.

Check the full Newbury racecard for the latest declarations, weights, and market moves before the off.

Who Is the Favourite for the Betway Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap Stakes?

No Retreat is expected to head the market as the top-rated runner in the field at OR 107. George Scott's five-year-old carries 10st 4lb with Tom Marquand aboard from stall 5, and his superior rating makes him the logical favourite. However, the weight burden on Good to Firm ground means he may not start at a particularly generous price — making the each-way case for Royal Zabeel even more compelling.

Does the Draw Matter at Newbury Over Seven Furlongs?

Newbury's straight seven-furlong course means the draw is less decisive than at tracks with significant bends, but it's far from irrelevant. On Good to Firm ground with a strong pace expected, low-to-middle draws (1-7) hold a slight edge, as horses can settle closer to the rail and avoid being shuffled back in a large field. High draws (8-10) are not fatal, but jockeys like Silvestre De Sousa and William Carver will need to be proactive early to avoid being caught wide and exposed throughout.

What Is the Prize Money for the Betway Handicap Stakes at Newbury?

The Betway Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap Stakes carries a total prize fund of £45,000, making it one of the more valuable Class 2 handicaps on the summer Flat calendar. With a rating band of 86-105 and ten runners declared, it attracts a high quality of handicapper — horses who are competitive at this level are typically well-regarded by their connections and primed for a big summer campaign.