Setting the Scene: A Midsummer Handicap Worth Getting Excited About

Now look, I know what you're thinking. Tom, you old jumps obsessive, what are you doing sniffing around a flat race in the middle of July? Fair point, fair point. But when a £100,000 heritage handicap rolls around at Newbury — one of the finest, most honest tracks in the British Isles — even a man whose heart belongs to Cheltenham in March can't look away. The Betway Bunbury Cup is one of those summer handicaps that genuinely rewards form students. Seven furlongs, a proper field, and good to firm ground that'll sort the men from the boys. This is a race where pace, draw, and class collide, and if you do your homework, there's money to be made. So pull up a stool, let me get the round in, and we'll go through this lot properly.

With two non-runners already declared — both from the Hannon yard, which is a story in itself — we're left with 13 runners on the Newbury racecard, and there's enough here to make your head spin if you're not careful. Let's separate the wheat from the chaff.

The Main Contenders: Who's Got a Genuine Shout?

Royal Zabeel (Draw: 4, Rating: 102, 10-3)

Top weight and top billing go to Royal Zabeel, trained by the ever-reliable Michael Appleby and partnered by Conor Whiteley. Now, 10-3 in a heritage handicap is no joke — you're giving lumps of weight to everyone in the field — but the key flags here are impossible to ignore: course winner, distance winner. This horse knows Newbury, knows seven furlongs, and Appleby doesn't send his horses on long trips for the good of their health. He's had this race circled on the calendar, I'd wager. The concern is the weight. At good to firm, you want to be travelling smoothly, and carrying a stone-plus more than the bottom weights will take its toll late on. Respect, but at a short price, I'd want better odds.

Two Tribes (Draw: 10, Rating: 103, 9-12)

Richard Spencer saddles Two Tribes, and Oisin Murphy takes the ride — and that combination alone is enough to make you sit up straight. Murphy doesn't waste his Saturdays, and Spencer has been quietly excellent in these mid-summer handicaps. The blinkers go on, which suggests they want this horse switched on and focused from the gate. A distance winner, drawn in stall 10 — not perfect, not terrible — and with a rating of 103, he's near the top of the handicap but not crushed by weight like Royal Zabeel. This is a serious contender. If Murphy gets a good position tracking the pace, he could be devastating in the final two furlongs. One of the first names on my shortlist.

Elarak (Draw: 15, Rating: 103, 9-12)

Charles Hills sends out Elarak, ridden by the exciting young Billy Loughnane, and on paper this is a very attractive profile. Course winner, distance winner, good rating, and a trainer who knows how to place a horse. The worry? Stall 15. On good to firm ground at Newbury over seven furlongs, being widest of all is far from ideal. You're giving ground from the off, and unless there's a strong pace bias towards the far rail, Loughnane will need to work hard to get into a winning position. The talent is undeniable — but the draw is a genuine concern. Each-way at a price, perhaps, but not my main selection.

Great Acclaim (Draw: 11, Rating: 100, 9-9)

Eve Johnson Houghton has been in fine form, and Great Acclaim wears a visor today — always a sign the yard wants a performance. Charles Bishop knows this horse well, and at 9-9 he's got a workable weight. A distance winner from stall 11, he's drawn in the middle of the track which is fairly neutral at Newbury. Johnson Houghton is a trainer who picks her spots carefully, and I wouldn't be at all surprised if Great Acclaim runs a big race here at a decent price. He's my each-way value flag of the race.

Supido (Draw: 13, Rating: 94, 9-3)

Now here's an interesting one. Ryan Moore on a 94-rated horse trained by Ian Williams — that's not a combination you see unless connections mean business. No form flags listed, which is curious, but Moore's presence elevates any runner in any race on the planet. At 9-3, the weight is very manageable, and if there's any unexposed ability here, Moore will find it. The draw in 13 isn't ideal, but Moore has won from worse. Keep a close eye on the market moves here — if this one drifts, walk away; if it firms up, it's telling you something.

Aalto (Draw: 6, Rating: 87, 8-10)

William Buick takes the ride on Aalto for Ian Williams — so the stable has two big-name jockeys engaged, which is intriguing in itself. Aalto is a course and distance winner, rated just 87, which means he's got a lovely light weight to carry and a fair draw in stall 6. Buick is as good as it gets on a flat track, and at what should be a generous price, this fellow is absolutely worth an each-way interest. Don't let the low rating fool you — on good to firm ground, with a clean break from stall 6, Aalto could outrun his odds significantly.

Going and Draw: The Conditions Are Key

Good to firm at Newbury in July is proper summer ground — quick, fair, and unforgiving of anything that doesn't truly stay the trip. Seven furlongs here is a searching test; it's not a sprint, and it's not a true staying test either. It rewards horses who can travel with the pace and sustain their effort. Stamina is not irrelevant.

On the draw front, Newbury over seven furlongs is generally considered fairly neutral, though in a big field on fast ground, low-to-middle draws tend to have a slight edge. Stalls 1 through 8 look best placed today. That makes Back In Black (1), Witch Hunter (2, non-runner), Nostrum (3), Royal Zabeel (4), The Fingal Raven (5), and Aalto (6) the most favourably positioned on paper. The high draws — particularly Elarak in 15 and Colombier in 14 — face a stiffer task, though not an impossible one.

Value Picks and Dangers to Note

  • Aalto (EW) — Buick, course and distance form, light weight, decent draw. Underrated.
  • Great Acclaim (EW) — Johnson Houghton in form, visor on, Bishop aboard. Could outrun his price.
  • Supido — Moore doesn't ride without intent. Watch the market carefully.
  • Nostrum — Another Appleby runner, course and distance winner from stall 3. Don't overlook him at a big price.
  • Danger: Two Tribes. If Murphy gets a dream run, this one could win by more than you'd expect.

Tom's Verdict: My Selection for the Betway Bunbury Cup

Right then, cards on the table. My main selection is Two Tribes. Oisin Murphy in a £100k heritage handicap doesn't need much more justification than that, but the blinkers, the distance form, and Richard Spencer's quiet confidence in these summer handicaps all point the same way. From stall 10 on good to firm ground, Murphy will have him travelling sweetly, and I fancy he'll be the one they're all chasing in the final furlong.

For the each-way punt, I'm going with Aalto. William Buick, course and distance winner, low weight, stall 6 — at what should be a double-figure price, the each-way terms make this a cracking bet. If the ground is riding as fast as expected, his low weight becomes an even bigger asset.

Steer clear of Royal Zabeel at the top of the weights unless the price is very generous — 10-3 in a heritage handicap on fast ground is a tough ask, even for a course specialist. And with two Hannon non-runners already disrupting the market, make sure you check the final declarations before you place your bets on the Newbury racecard.

Main Tip: Two Tribes (EW) | Each-Way Value: Aalto

Who Is the Favourite for the Betway Bunbury Cup Heritage Handicap?

Based on ratings and market expectation, Two Tribes (103, Oisin Murphy) and Royal Zabeel (102, Conor Whiteley) are likely to head the market. Royal Zabeel carries top weight of 10-3 but has strong course and distance form. Two Tribes, with Murphy in the saddle and blinkers applied, is many people's idea of the one to beat. Watch for Supido with Ryan Moore to attract support — Moore's presence always shortens a price.

Does the Draw Matter in the Betway Bunbury Cup at Newbury?

It matters, but it's not everything. Newbury over seven furlongs is a fair, galloping track where horses with ability can overcome a wide draw if ridden with intelligence. That said, on good to firm ground with a big field, low-to-middle draws (stalls 1-8) carry a marginal advantage as horses can find their position without expending unnecessary energy. Stalls 15 (Elarak) and 14 (Colombier) are the most disadvantaged, and both horses will need a strong pace to drag them into contention from the outside.

Is Good to Firm Ground a Concern for Any Runners in the Bunbury Cup?

Absolutely worth considering. Good to firm at Newbury in July is quick, unrelenting ground that exposes any horse who doesn't truly stay the seven-furlong trip. Horses carrying big weights — particularly Royal Zabeel on 10-3 — will find the fast surface more of a test than they would on easier going. Conversely, lightly-weighted runners like Aalto (8-10) and Dapper Guest (8-3) could find the conditions playing right into their hands, bouncing off the firm ground and making their weight advantage count in the final stages.