Series Finale Sets Up Thrilling Climax
The Go North Forgive 'N Forget Series reaches its crescendo at Hereford on Saturday afternoon, with the £40,000 Betwright Novices' Handicap Chase providing a fitting finale to what's been an excellent campaign for staying novice chasers. This Class 2 contest over two and a half miles has attracted a field of ten, each representing different paths through the novice chase ranks.
I've been following this series closely all winter, and the beauty of these finals is how they bring together horses from different spheres. You've got the Skelton machine represented, northern trainers making the trip south, and a few interesting outsiders who've found their way here via the back door. The £40k prize fund ensures serious intent from connections.
The going description reads Good to Soft, Soft in places, but with the entire course vertidrained and drying conditions expected, I'd anticipate it riding closer to Good to Soft by post time. That's crucial information for punters – several of these need it on the easier side.
The Market Leaders Dissected
Diamond Dealer tops the weights on 120 and deservedly heads the market. Dan Skelton's seven-year-old has been a revelation since switching to fences, winning here already this season which gives him a significant edge. Tristan Durrell takes the ride, and the partnership clicked immediately when they teamed up at this track earlier in the campaign. The gelding's rating suggests he's found his level over fences, but that doesn't mean he's finished improving. Skelton rarely runs horses in races like this unless he fancies them strongly.
The danger comes from My Noble Lord, who represents excellent value at the weights. Oliver Greenall and Josh Guerriero have done a superb job with this five-year-old, and Craig Nichol knows him inside out. He's only 1lb wrong at the weights compared to the favourite, but he's three years younger and potentially still on an upward curve. The tongue-tie goes back on, which worked well in his last win.
Glen Road brings solid credentials from the Smith/Parkinson yard. This seven-year-old is both a course and distance winner, which counts for plenty around Hereford's unique undulations. Danny McMenamin has struck up a good partnership with the horse, and they'll appreciate the drying ground. At 11-10, he's nicely treated if reproducing his best form.
The Northern Challenge
Rebecca Menzies sends two south in Joecooker and Always A Reason, and both merit respect. Joecooker has Jamie Hamilton aboard and comes here off a solid run in better company. The step back in grade looks well-judged, and Menzies has an excellent record with her raiders.
Moon Phases represents the Lucinda Russell/Michael Scudamore partnership, with Derek Fox making the journey. This gelding has been consistent without winning lately, but Fox's booking suggests connections believe a change of scenery might do the trick. At 11-6, he's another who should appreciate the ground conditions.
The Scottish challenge comes via Sandy Thomson's Bridge Court. Sean Quinlan takes the ride on this seven-year-old who's shown glimpses of ability without quite putting it together. The tongue-tie suggests they're still searching for the key, but Thomson wouldn't make the trip without genuine hope.
Value Hunting in the Field
Down the bottom of the weights, Defence Witness catches the eye at 10-2. Sam England trains and his son Jonathan rides, always a positive sign for stable confidence. This gelding is a proven distance winner and the combination of blinkers and tongue-tie suggests they've identified issues and are trying to solve them. At his current rating, he only needs to reproduce form from earlier in his career to be competitive.
Stick With Me Sam from Tom Gretton's yard wears a hood and tongue-tie combination, with Gavin Sheehan booked. The jockey booking is interesting – Sheehan doesn't waste his time on no-hopers, and this gelding's rating of 105 suggests there might be more to come.
The ground will be crucial for several of these. Those with tongue-ties reapplied – My Noble Lord, Joecooker, Bridge Court, Always A Reason, and Stick With Me Sam – suggest trainers have been working on breathing or temperament issues. It's often a positive sign when connections persevere with equipment changes.
Who is the favourite for the Betwright Novices' Handicap Chase?
Diamond Dealer heads the market and rightly so. Dan Skelton's gelding has proven course form, carries top weight for a reason, and has Tristan Durrell aboard fresh from their previous success together at this venue. His rating of 120 makes him the horse to beat, though the 12-0 burden is substantial over this trip.
Which horses offer the best value in this race?
My Noble Lord represents the standout value proposition. At just 1lb worse off with the favourite but three years younger, the Greenall/Guerriero-trained gelding could still be improving. Glen Road also appeals as a course and distance winner who should handle the conditions perfectly. For each-way players, Defence Witness at the foot of the weights could outrun his odds significantly.
How important is course experience at Hereford?
Hereford's undulating track with its stiff uphill finish places unique demands on horses and jockeys alike. Diamond Dealer and Glen Road both have winning course form, which provides a significant advantage. The track's characteristics mean that stamina and tactical positioning become crucial, especially over this extended trip. First-time visitors often struggle to adapt to the course's particular rhythm and demands.
The Verdict
This shapes up as a fascinating finale to the series, with legitimate claims spread throughout the field. Diamond Dealer sets the standard but faces a stiff task from the front of the handicap. My Noble Lord offers the best value for win purposes, combining youth with proven ability and a handy weight.
For me, the play is My Noble Lord each-way, with Glen Road as the safety option for those wanting course form. Defence Witness merits a small saver at the weights if the market underestimates his chances. Check the Hereford racecard for final declarations and market moves – they'll tell us plenty about stable confidence in the final hours before racing.
