A Proper Contest to Close the Card
Sunday evening at Wetherby brings us a cracking little puzzle to finish the Wetherby racecard, and by Jaysus, this Castle Cary Mares' bumper has all the makings of a proper contest. Five fillies and mares ready to slug it out over nearly two miles on good ground – it's the sort of race that separates the wheat from the chaff and gives us a glimpse of future stars over timber.
Now, bumpers might not get the blood pumping like a Grade 1 chase, but don't be fooled into thinking this is just a gentle introduction. This is a Class 2 affair with £15,000 on offer, and with the going reading a perfect 'Good' after that soil moisture reading of 58%, we're looking at ideal conditions for these lasses to show their true colours. The fact it's a Category 1 Elimination race adds extra spice – connections will be keen to get their charges qualified for bigger prizes down the line.
The Honeyball Battalion Leads the Charge
Anthony Honeyball arrives mob-handed with two runners, and you'd be a fool to dismiss either. Western Charm carries the banner at 11-6 with Ben Godfrey in the saddle, and her form flags tell a story – both course and distance winner. That's music to my ears, so it is. There's nothing quite like a mare who knows her way around Wetherby's undulations, and at this trip, she's already proven she has the stamina to see out the journey.
The five-year-old will be giving weight away to the younger fillies, but experience counts for plenty in these bumpers. Honeyball wouldn't be saddling two unless he fancied his chances with both, and Western Charm looks the stable's number one string based on that weight allocation.
Don't sleep on stablemate Lady Litigator though. The four-year-old gets in at a featherweight 10-12 with Jonathan Burke aboard, and that weight advantage could prove crucial over this stamina-sapping trip. Burke's no mug in the saddle, and if this filly has been working well at home, she could outrun her odds.
The Dangers Lurking in the Pack
Hollie Potter represents Henry Daly's yard, and while she's another five-year-old carrying 11-2, you ignore Daly's runners at your peril. Stan Sheppard takes the ride, and he's a jockey who knows how to get a tune out of a mare. The lack of form flags might worry some, but in bumpers, it's often about untapped potential rather than proven form.
Harry Fry saddles Sorgean, another five-year-old at 11-2, but she's sporting a tongue tie for the first time. That headgear change could be significant – either she's been showing breathing issues at home, or Fry thinks she needs that extra edge to compete at this level. Bryan Carver knows his way around these types, so don't write her off entirely.
The Dark Horse That Could Shock Them All
Here's where it gets interesting, and where I might just have found the value in this race. Princess of Ballea is the youngest in the field at four years old, gets in at the minimum weight of 10-8, and has Harry Cobden in the plate. Now, when Cobden rocks up for a ride like this, you sit up and take notice.
Trained by Daisy Hitchins, this filly might not have the big-name stable behind her, but she's got everything going for her on paper. The weight advantage is significant – she's getting 12 pounds from Western Charm and 8 pounds from the other five-year-olds. Over this trip on good ground, that could be the difference between winning and finishing in the pack.
The hood she's wearing suggests they want to keep her focused, and with Cobden's championship-winning hands steering her, this could be the surprise package of the race. The price will likely be generous, and that's where the smart money should be going.
The Verdict and Where the Value Lies
On paper, Western Charm deserves favouritism with her proven course and distance form, but at what will likely be short odds, there's no value to be had. The Honeyball double-handed approach suggests confidence, but it also splits their chances.
My selection is Princess of Ballea each-way. The combination of minimum weight, Harry Cobden's presence, and her age advantage makes her the value play in what looks a competitive heat. She's the type who could improve significantly from her last run, and with that weight allowance, she only needs to run to a decent level to be competitive.
If you're looking for the safer option, Western Charm is the logical choice, but where's the fun in backing odds-on shots in bumpers? This game is about finding the improvers and the value, and Princess of Ballea ticks both boxes.
The going is perfect, the stage is set, and Sunday evening at Wetherby should provide us with a cracking finish to the day. Just remember – in mares' bumpers, it's often the unexpected that happens, and that's exactly why we love this game.
Who is the favourite for the Castle Cary Mares' Open National Hunt Flat Race?
Western Charm is likely to start favourite based on her course and distance winning form, combined with the strength of Anthony Honeyball's stable. Her proven ability at Wetherby over this trip makes her the logical market leader, though her 11-6 weight burden means she'll have to earn her victory.
What impact will the good ground have on this race?
The good ground reading with 58% soil moisture is ideal for this type of stamina test. It should ensure we get a true test of staying power without the race becoming a slog, which could favour the younger, lighter-weighted runners like Princess of Ballea who can use their speed to good effect over the final furlong.
Why is Harry Cobden's booking of Princess of Ballea significant?
Cobden's decision to take this ride is telling – championship jockeys don't travel for no-hopers in Sunday evening bumpers. His presence suggests there's been something impressive about this filly's home work, and combined with her minimum weight of 10-8, it makes her a fascinating outsider in what could be a competitive finish.
