Setting the Scene: A Midsummer Cavalry Charge at Folkestone
Right, pull up a stool and let me pour you one, because this is the kind of race that separates the serious punters from the people who just pick the horse with the nicest name. The Coral Rewards Shaker Handicap Stakes at Folkestone on Tuesday the 28th of July is a proper summer showpiece — £75,000 in prize money, 24 runners, and five furlongs of pure, unadulterated mayhem on good to firm ground. This is the sort of race that gets your heart thumping before the stalls even open.
Now, I know what you're thinking — Tom, you're a jumps man, what are you doing sniffing around a flat sprint in the height of summer? And fair enough, you've got me there. But a big-field handicap is a big-field handicap, and the principles of pace, draw, and trainer intent apply just as well on the Folkestone turf in July as they do over the sticks at Cheltenham in November. So let's get stuck in, shall we?
Draw and Going: The Invisible Hands That Shape This Race
Before we even talk about the horses, we need to talk about the draw, because on a five-furlong track with 24 runners, your stall number is nearly as important as your rating. At Folkestone, the conventional wisdom on good to firm ground over the minimum trip is that low-to-middle draws hold a significant advantage — the track's slight right-hand bias and the way the pace tends to develop means horses on the far side can find themselves fighting a losing battle before they've even hit their stride.
With the going reported as Good, Good to Firm in places, expect this to be a lightning-fast five furlongs. The ground will suit your sharp, early-pace types — horses that can ping the gates and establish position. Stamina is not the question here; it's all about that explosive, two-furlong burst from halfway. Horses that need time to warm up, or that have been campaigned over six or seven furlongs recently, are ones I'd be treating with a degree of suspicion, no matter how tempting their price might look.
Looking at the Folkestone racecard, the low draws — stalls one through eight — look like prime real estate today. Keep that in mind as we work through the principals.
The Main Contenders: Who Can Win This Thing?
Jasour (Draw: 1, Rating: 104)
Jasour is the top weight and, on ratings, the one they all have to beat. Trained by the excellent Clive Cox and ridden by P. J. McDonald, this five-year-old colt is a proven distance winner and gets the golden stall one draw. The tongue tie is on, which tells you Cox has done his homework getting this horse to switch off and travel. McDonald is a man who knows how to ride a sprint handicap — he won't panic, he'll find the rail and he'll ride a patient race. At top weight of 9-12, he's giving lumps of weight to most of the field, but his rating of 104 suggests he's well above average for this grade. The danger is that top weight in a 24-runner sprint is a brutal ask, even for a classy horse.
Lexington Blitz (Draw: 5, Rating: 98)
Now here's a horse I really like the look of. Lexington Blitz, trained by Robert Cowell — a man who absolutely knows how to place a sprinter — is both a course winner and a distance winner. That combination at this track on this trip is worth its weight in gold. Edward Greatrex takes the ride and he's a jockey who rides Folkestone well. Stall five is a lovely draw, he's racing off a mark of 98 carrying 9-6, and Cowell's sprinters tend to arrive in peak condition when they turn up for races like this. This is a horse the trainer has clearly targeted, and I wouldn't be at all surprised if he's the one leading them into the final furlong.
Toca Madera (Draw: 4, Rating: 95)
Toca Madera is another one drawn beautifully in stall four, trained by David O'Meara and ridden by the classy Daniel Tudhope. A proven distance winner off a mark of 95 carrying just 9-3, he gets in relatively lightly compared to the top two in the market. O'Meara and Tudhope are a formidable combination in these big-field handicaps — they know how to place a horse and they know how to ride one. Stall four, good to firm ground, and a jockey who can find daylight in a crowd? Yes please.
Democracy Dilemma (Draw: 7, Rating: 96)
Robert Cowell saddles a second string in Democracy Dilemma, drawn in stall seven with Tom Eaves aboard. A six-year-old gelding with a visor on and a solid distance-winning record, he's another from the low-draw brigade. Cowell running two in the same race is interesting — it suggests he fancies his chances with at least one of them, and the pacemaking tactics between this pair could be very interesting. Democracy Dilemma at 9-4 is the lighter weight of the two Cowell runners and could easily be the one the stable prefers.
Naana's Sparkle (Draw: 6, Rating: 92)
Don't sleep on Naana's Sparkle. Trained by the relatively unknown Lemos De Souza, this four-year-old gelding is both a course winner and a distance winner — that's two massive ticks right there. Stall six is perfect, the tongue tie is on suggesting they've worked to sharpen him up, and at a mark of 92 carrying 9-0, he gets in well below the principals. Kieran O'Neill is an underrated jockey who rides with confidence in big fields. This horse could be the value play of the race.
The Man (Draw: 3, Rating: 91)
Richard Spencer saddles The Man from stall three — another low draw, another distance winner, and David Egan in the saddle. Spencer has four runners in this race which is either a sign of supreme confidence or a scattergun approach, but The Man, drawn three with a tongue tie on and Egan up, looks the pick of the Spencer quartet. At 8-13 he's well handicapped if reproducing his best.
Value Picks and Dangers to Swerve
The high-draw horses face a serious task today. Runners like Adrestia (draw 24), Candy (draw 21), and Exclamation (draw 22) are all starting from a significant positional disadvantage. Oisin Murphy on Adrestia is always dangerous, but even he can't move the stalls. I'd want a big price before backing anything drawn above 20 in this field on this track.
- Best value: Naana's Sparkle (stall 6, course & distance winner, lightly weighted)
- Each-way interest: Tatterstall (stall 13, course & distance winner, Michael Dods in form)
- Swerve: Anything drawn above 20 — the high draws are paying a tax today
Tom's Verdict: One Horse to Rule Them All
Right, cards on the table. In a race like this, with 24 runners and a clear draw bias, I want a horse that ticks every box: low draw, proven at course and distance, a trainer who targets these races, and a jockey I trust. Lexington Blitz ticks every single one of those boxes.
Robert Cowell is a master of the big-field sprint handicap. He doesn't run horses for fun — when he turns up at a track with a course-and-distance winner in a £75,000 prize, he means business. Stall five is ideal, Edward Greatrex is in fine form, and the good to firm ground is exactly what this horse wants. He's not the flashiest name on the card, but that's fine by me — the flashy names are the ones that get beaten at short prices while the canny punters are cashing their slips.
My Selection: Lexington Blitz — Each-Way
If you want a second string to your bow, Naana's Sparkle at whatever price the layers are offering is a genuine each-way shout. Course winner, distance winner, low draw, and trained by someone with a point to prove. In a race this competitive, the value is always in the places.
Best of luck to you all. May your draws be low and your winners be long. 🍀
Who Is the Favourite for the Coral Rewards Shaker Handicap Stakes?
On ratings, Jasour (104) heads the weights and is likely to be a market leader, with Clive Cox's record in Class 2 sprints giving punters plenty of confidence. However, Lexington Blitz and Toca Madera are expected to be well-backed given their favourable draws and course-and-distance form. Expect a tight market with several horses in single figures.
Does the Draw Matter at Folkestone Over 5 Furlongs?
Absolutely, and significantly so in a field of 24. Folkestone's five-furlong track on good to firm ground heavily favours low-to-middle draws, typically stalls one through ten. Horses drawn in the high teens and twenties face a genuine positional disadvantage and would need to be significantly superior on ability to overcome it. When assessing your bets, always factor in the draw before anything else in a race of this size.
Which Trainer Has the Best Record in This Type of Race?
Robert Cowell stands out as the trainer to follow in big-field flat sprint handicaps, and he saddles two here in Lexington Blitz and Democracy Dilemma. David O'Meara also has an excellent record in summer handicaps with Toca Madera, while Clive Cox is always dangerous when he targets a prize of this size. Richard Spencer's four-runner team is intriguing, though spreading his ammunition this thinly can sometimes dilute the impact.
