The Grand Stage at Aintree
Well now, here we are again at the grand old lady herself - Aintree - for what promises to be an absolute cracker of a Scottish Grand National. This race has grown into one of the premier staying handicaps in the calendar, and with £200,000 on offer, you can bet your bottom euro that every yard from here to Galway has been plotting and planning for months.
The going description reads soft, good to soft in places, which is music to the ears of the staying types. At nearly four miles, this is a proper test of stamina and jumping, and with 21 declared for Saturday's showpiece, we're in for a right royal battle. The Aintree racecard doesn't get much stronger than this, I can tell you that much.
The Market Leaders Under the Microscope
Blaze The Way sits pretty at the top of the weights with 12-0, and you'd have to say Margaret Mullins has done a fine job with this eight-year-old. Danny Mullins takes the ride, and that's no accident - the lad knows his way around a staying chase better than most. Rating 145 suggests this fellow is the real deal, though carrying top weight over this trip on testing ground is no joke.
Paul Nicholls rocks up with a proper one-two punch in Quebecois and Isaac des Obeaux. Now, Quebecois catches the eye immediately - he's a course winner, which counts for plenty around here, and Harry Cobden in the saddle is worth a few pounds alone. At 7 years old with a rating of 144, he's bang in his prime. The tongue-tie suggests they're leaving no stone unturned.
Isaac des Obeaux is the more interesting proposition for me, mind you. An 8-year-old carrying 11-8, he's got Sam Twiston-Davies aboard, and that combination has been lethal over the years. Nicholls doesn't send two to a race like this unless he fancies both, and splitting the Ditcheat pair could be the key to finding value.
King of Answers for the Russell-Scudamore team deserves serious respect. Derek Fox knows what it takes to win the big ones, and at 143 rating carrying 11-12, the weights are certainly in his favour. This yard has been flying lately, and they wouldn't be here unless they thought they had a genuine chance.
The Ground Game and Tactical Considerations
This soft ground is going to sort the wheat from the chaff, make no mistake. Over three miles and seven furlongs, only the genuine stayers need apply, and those with a bit of class in testing conditions will come to the fore. The course winners - Quebecois, Famous Bridge, and Chasingouttheblues - all deserve a second look purely for their proven ability to handle Aintree's unique challenges.
The lack of a traditional draw in jump racing means it's all about getting a good position early and staying out of trouble. With 21 runners, there'll be plenty of carnage along the way, and those that can travel sweetly in the pack before unleashing their finishing kick will hold all the aces.
Value Picks and Dark Horses
Now, here's where it gets interesting for those of us looking beyond the obvious choices. Our Power might be 11 years old, but Danny Gilligan knows this horse inside out, and Sam Thomas has been working miracles with staying chasers. At 137 rating carrying 11-6, he's not without a chance if the pace collapses.
Road To Home represents the Willie Mullins battalion with Patrick Mullins in the saddle. Now, when the Mullins clan send one over from Ireland for a race like this, you sit up and take notice. Seven years old, rating 137, and with that famous Closutton polish - he could easily outrun his odds.
Don't sleep on Famous Bridge either. Sean Quinlan gets the leg up for Nicky Richards, and this 10-year-old is another course winner. At 132 rating with 11-1 to carry, he's nicely treated if running to his best.
The real eyecatcher for me though is Magna Sam down at the bottom of the weights. Twelve years old he might be, but he's a proven distance winner, and Ciaran Gethings only gets 10-2 to deal with. If this old warrior has one more big run in him, he could shock a few at massive odds.
The Verdict
Right, cards on the table time. While Blaze The Way looks the class act on paper, that 12-0 burden is hefty over this trip on this ground. I'm leaning towards Isaac des Obeaux as the value play in what should be a cracking renewal.
The Nicholls second string gets in with a handy weight, Sam Twiston-Davies is a master tactician over this sort of trip, and the eight-year-old profile fits perfectly for a race like this. He's proven at the highest level, handles testing conditions, and crucially, he might just slip under the radar with all the focus on his more fancied stablemate.
For the forecast, I'll take Isaac des Obeaux to win with Road To Home running into a place. The Mullins factor from Ireland shouldn't be underestimated, and Patrick knows how to get the best out of his mounts when it matters most.
Who is the favourite for the Coral Scottish Grand National?
Blaze The Way heads the market as the 145-rated topweight for Margaret Mullins. With Danny Mullins in the saddle and carrying 12-0, he's the horse the bookmakers fear most, though that weight burden makes him no certainty over this marathon trip.
Which horses have course form at Aintree?
Three horses in the field have proven Aintree form: Quebecois (trained by Paul Nicholls), Famous Bridge (Nicky Richards), and Chasingouttheblues (Mark Walford). Course experience is invaluable around Aintree's unique track, making all three worthy of extra consideration.
How will the soft ground affect the Scottish Grand National?
The soft, good to soft going will favour the proven stayers and those with form on testing surfaces. The extended trip of 3m 7f 176y will become even more demanding, likely leading to a smaller group of finishers and potentially setting up a sprint finish between the survivors who can quicken off the strong pace.
