Setting the Scene at Redcar
Right then, racing fans, we've got ourselves a proper little contest brewing at Redcar this Sunday afternoon. The Fitzdares Fillies' Conditions Stakes might not have the glamour of Royal Ascot, but don't let that fool you – this £18.5k Class 2 affair over five furlongs is exactly the sort of race where reputations are made and future stars announce themselves to the world.
With the going described as Good to Firm, Good in places, we're looking at conditions that'll favour the speedier types who can handle a bit of dig in the ground. Six fillies have been declared for this Redcar racecard highlight, and by Jaysus, there's some serious talent on show here.
The Contenders Under the Microscope
Ziggy Starshine tops the weights at 9-2 with Jack Doughty in the saddle, and there's good reason for that burden. Trained by the shrewd partnership of Dr Richard Newland & Jamie Insole, this filly comes here as a proven distance winner, and that form flag tells you everything you need to know about her credentials over this trip. Drawing stall six isn't ideal on paper, but with Doughty's tactical nous, she should be able to work her way into contention.
The danger lurking just behind is Lover Girl, carrying 9-4 under Rowan Scott for Kevin Philippart de Foy. Another distance winner, she's drawn perfectly in stall three and will have every chance to dictate terms from the front if that's the plan. Scott's been riding with real confidence lately, and this partnership could prove lethal if they get first run on their rivals.
Passerine represents the Richard Hannon stable, and you ignore anything from that yard at your peril when it comes to speedy two-year-olds. Alec Voikhansky takes the ride, and while she's giving weight away to most of her rivals, class has a funny way of rising to the surface in races like this. The middle draw in stall four gives her options.
The Supporting Cast and Dark Horses
Don't be too quick to dismiss the bottom weights either. Babzini from the Eve Johnson Houghton yard gets the services of Charles Bishop and has drawn the rail in stall one. That could be a blessing or a curse depending on how the pace develops, but Johnson Houghton knows how to get her juveniles ready for the big day.
Nonrem for Brian Meehan and Joe Leavy is another at the bottom of the weights who could spring a surprise. Meehan's been having a decent season, and this filly might just be better than her rating suggests. The inside draw in stall two means she'll get a good view of proceedings from the start.
Rhodes Runner completes the field for Ralph Beckett, and while she's drawn wide in five, don't write her off completely. Beckett's fillies often improve significantly for their early runs, and Edward Greatrex is a capable pilot who won't panic if things don't go to plan early doors.
Going Conditions and Tactical Considerations
The Good to Firm going with Good patches will suit the proven performers here, particularly those with the early pace to secure a prominent position. Over five furlongs at Redcar, you can't afford to get too far back, and the slight ease in the ground will help stamina come into play in the final furlong.
The draw could prove crucial here. Those on the inside – Babzini and Nonrem – will need to be sharp from the gates to avoid getting squeezed out. Meanwhile, Ziggy Starshine's wide draw means Doughty will need to use some of her early pace to get into a decent position, but that might not be such a bad thing given her proven speed.
The Verdict and Value Picks
After chewing over all the evidence, I'm siding with Ziggy Starshine to get the job done here. Yes, she's got the widest draw and top weight, but class tells in the end, and her distance-winning form gives her a significant edge over most of these. Jack Doughty's tactical awareness will be crucial, but I fancy him to get her into the right position when it matters.
For value hunters, keep an eye on Lover Girl each-way. The draw is perfect, Scott's in good form, and if she can control the pace from the front, she might prove tough to peg back in the closing stages.
As for the outsiders, Passerine represents the most dangerous threat from the Hannon stable, and you'd be mad to completely rule out anything trained by that master of juvenile development.
Who is the favourite for the Fitzdares Fillies' Stakes?
While the betting markets haven't been fully formed yet, expect Ziggy Starshine to go off as favourite based on her proven form over the distance and the quality of her connections. Lover Girl should be close behind in the betting, with Passerine likely to attract support purely on the strength of the Hannon name.
What impact will the draw have on the race?
The draw will be absolutely crucial over this sharp five-furlong trip. Those drawn low – particularly Babzini and Nonrem – will need lightning-quick starts to avoid trouble, while Ziggy Starshine's high draw means Jack Doughty will need to be positive early to secure a decent racing position. Lover Girl's middle draw gives her the best of both worlds.
Which trainer has the best record in this type of race?
Richard Hannon's record with two-year-old fillies in conditions races is second to none, making Passerine a major player despite giving weight away. However, the Newland & Insole partnership has been quietly building an excellent reputation with their juveniles, and Ziggy Starshine could be their latest success story. Don't overlook Kevin Philippart de Foy either – his horses often peak at the right time.
