Setting the Scene at Aintree
Friday afternoon at Aintree and we've got ourselves a proper handicap chase to sink our teeth into. The Hillhouse Quarry Chase might not have the glamour of the Grand National, but don't let that fool you - this £50,000 Class 2 contest over two and a half miles has attracted a field that would grace any Saturday card. Nine runners have stood their ground for this test of stamina, and with the ground riding soft to good to soft in places, we're in for a right old slog that'll sort the wheat from the chaff.
The beauty of this race lies in its competitive nature - ratings spanning from 124 to 148 mean the handicapper has his work cut out, and punters have plenty to ponder. It's the kind of race where course knowledge, stamina reserves, and how they handle the juice underfoot will separate the pretenders from the contenders.
The Main Contenders
Twinjets heads the weights with 12-0, and rightly so given his lofty 148 rating. The nine-year-old Paul Nicholls-trained gelding has Jay Tidball in the saddle, and this partnership has been clicking of late. What I love about this horse is his proven stamina - he's a distance winner who relishes a test, and these conditions are right up his street. Nicholls knows how to place his horses, and the fact he's letting this lad take on the weight burden tells you everything about confidence levels in the Ditcheat camp.
Califet En Vol represents the Henderson battalion with Nico de Boinville aboard, and at 11-7 he looks well treated off a mark of 141. This seven-year-old has been knocking on the door in similar company, and the step up in trip could be the key that unlocks his potential. Henderson's horses have been flying lately, and when the Lambourn maestro sends one to Aintree, you sit up and take notice.
The Scottish raiders come in the form of Myretown and Hombre de Guerra, both trained by the Lucinda Russell and Michael Scudamore partnership. Myretown gets the services of Derek Fox, a man who knows his way around Aintree better than most. At 11-6, this nine-year-old distance winner could be the value play of the race - he's been running with credit in similar contests and won't mind the testing conditions one bit.
Donnacha for Nigel Hawke is an interesting runner at 11-3. James Davies takes the ride on this eight-year-old, and while Hawke might not have the profile of Nicholls or Henderson, his horses often turn up when the money's down. The 137 rating suggests he belongs at this level.
Paul Nicholls saddles a second string in Il Ridoto, with Harry Cobden taking the reins. At 11-2 and wearing a tongue-tie, this nine-year-old could be the forgotten horse in the field. When Nicholls runs two in a race like this, the second string often outperforms the supposed first choice - it's happened before, and it'll happen again.
Ground Conditions and Course Factors
The soft, good to soft going is absolutely crucial to how this race will pan out. We're not talking about a sprint here - two miles and four furlongs at Aintree on testing ground will find out every horse in this field. The stamina test will be severe, and those with questionable staying power will be found wanting come the business end.
Aintree's unique character means horses need to be tough, genuine sorts who can handle the undulations and the demanding fences. It's not a track for the faint-hearted, and with the ground on the easier side, we'll see a proper test of jumping under pressure. The course winners in the field - Dubai Days and Hombre de Guerra - have that invaluable experience of negotiating these particular obstacles.
Value Picks and Dark Horses
While the market will likely focus on the Nicholls and Henderson runners, I'm drawn to a couple of potential value plays. Jipcot for the O'Neill team catches the eye at 10-12. This seven-year-old has been running well in similar company, and with Jonjo Jr. in the saddle, he could outrun his odds. The tongue-tie suggests connections are looking for that extra bit of improvement.
Dubai Days at 12 years old might seem over the hill, but this old warrior has course-winning form and knows exactly what's required around here. At 10-6, he's getting plenty of weight from the principals, and Bruce Lynn is a capable pilot who won't get in his way. Sometimes experience trumps youth in races like this.
The danger horse has to be Hoe Joly Smoke for Dan Skelton. Harry Skelton's booking is significant, and at 10-10, this eight-year-old could be well treated if he's retained his ability. The tongue-tie is interesting - often a sign that connections think there's more to come.
Who is the favourite for the Hillhouse Quarry Handicap Chase?
Twinjets will likely head the market, and for good reason. The Paul Nicholls-trained gelding tops the weights with a rating of 148, has proven stamina credentials as a distance winner, and comes here with solid recent form. Jay Tidball's association adds confidence, and the combination of class and proven ability makes him the logical market leader.
Which horses have course form at Aintree?
Two runners bring valuable Aintree experience to this contest. Dubai Days has course-winning form here, which cannot be underestimated given the unique challenges this track presents. Hombre de Guerra also has course-winning credentials, giving the Lucinda Russell team a tactical advantage. Course form at Aintree is gold dust - these fences and undulations catch out many a good horse on their first visit.
How will the soft ground affect the race?
The soft, good to soft conditions will turn this into a proper stamina test. Over two miles and four furlongs, horses will need genuine staying power to be competitive. The testing ground favours the older, more experienced campaigners who've proven they can handle juice underfoot. Expect the pace to be steady early before the race develops into a war of attrition from the second-last fence onwards.
The Verdict
This is a cracking renewal of the Hillhouse Quarry Chase, and while Twinjets deserves his position at the head of the market, I'm not convinced he's unbeatable carrying top weight on this ground. My selection is Myretown each-way at what should be decent odds. Derek Fox's Aintree expertise, the horse's proven stamina, and his relatively light weight of 11-6 make him the value play in a competitive field.
For the brave punters, Il Ridoto could be the surprise package from the Nicholls yard. Second strings from Ditcheat have a habit of turning up when least expected, and at bigger odds than his stable companion, he represents serious each-way value. Check the full Aintree racecard for final declarations and market moves, but this looks like a race where the value lies away from the obvious choices. Sometimes in racing, as in life, it pays to look beyond the obvious - and that's exactly what I'm doing here.
