Setting the Scene: A Midsummer Gem at Glorious Goodwood

The Irish Stallion Farms EBF Dick Hern Stakes is one of those races that rewards a proper look. It doesn't carry the fanfare of the Goodwood Cup or the Nassau, but for those of us who spend our summers watching fillies and mares develop through the handicap ranks, this seven-and-a-half furlong Listed contest is a genuine pointer race. It sits at the intersection of Classic generation fillies testing themselves against older rivals, and the form it throws up regularly feeds into Group company before the season is out.

Eleven have been declared for the 15:00 on the Goodwood card on Saturday, and the Goodwood racecard looks competitive from top to bottom. The going is Good, Good to Firm in places, with dry conditions anticipated — soil moisture sitting at 40% as of Friday morning. That's a surface that will suit the quicker types and put a premium on clean jumping out of the stalls. At £70,000 in prize money, connections aren't here for the day out.

Contender Analysis: Who Can Win the Dick Hern Stakes?

Fallen Angel (Draw 3, Rating 116)

Let's start where we have to. Fallen Angel is in a different postcode to most of these on official ratings — rated 116, she's giving lumps of weight away in terms of ability even at level weights. K. R. Burke has trained her beautifully, and James Doyle knows her well. Crucially, she's a course and distance winner, which at Goodwood matters more than almost anywhere else in the country. That undulating, right-handed track with its camber and quirky home straight catches horses out regularly. She won't be caught out. Draw three is fine — she's versatile enough to be ridden from any position. The question isn't whether she's the best horse in the race. She almost certainly is. The question is whether she's value at what will likely be a short price, and whether Burke has her cherry-ripe for this rather than a Group target later in August.

Pacific Mission (Draw 6, Rating 107)

The most interesting three-year-old in the field. Andrew Balding sends out Pacific Mission on a rating of 107 — that's serious for a filly of her age, and the 7lb Classic generation allowance makes her very competitive on adjusted figures. Colin Keane takes the ride, which tells you something about connections' intentions. She's drawn six in what looks a middle-of-the-road stall on this course, and she's wearing a tongue-tie, suggesting there's been some work done to get the best from her. I've been watching Balding's three-year-old fillies all season and Pacific Mission strikes me as one who's been specifically pointed at this kind of race — a stepping stone rather than a destination. That's the profile of a horse that arrives in peak condition.

Calendar Girl (Draw 10, Rating 102)

Owen Burrows rarely runs a three-year-old filly in Listed company without genuine belief, and Calendar Girl at 102 with the age allowance is not without a shout. Callum Rodriguez keeps the ride, which suggests continuity of approach. The wide draw at ten is a minor inconvenience at Goodwood — you can get a decent position from out wide if you jump cleanly — but she'll need to be at her best. She's one to respect rather than fear, but don't dismiss her if the market shows any support.

Noche Clasica (Draw 9, Rating 98)

Edward Bethell has been in excellent form this summer, and Noche Clasica is a distance winner who clearly handles this sort of trip. Daniel Tudhope is a smart booking — he's a jockey who reads a race well and doesn't panic. Draw nine is workable. At 98, she's got ground to make up on the top weights on ratings, but this is a filly who could be ahead of her mark if Bethell has her travelling. She's my each-way danger to the two market leaders.

Alobayyah (Draw 4, Rating 96)

William Haggas doesn't run horses for fun, and Alobayyah is a distance winner who gets a nice draw in stall four. Tom Marquand is a reliable partner and knows how to ride Goodwood's tricky track. She's rated 96 which puts her below the top end of this field, but Haggas fillies have a habit of outrunning their ratings when conditions suit. Good to Firm ground is likely to be right up her street. She won't win if Fallen Angel or Pacific Mission fire, but she could run into a place at a decent price.

Mostar Dreams (Draw 11, Rating 98)

The wide draw at eleven is a concern for Mostar Dreams, but she's a course and distance winner, which is a big tick. Adrian Keatley has made the trip from Ireland with purpose. Oisin McSweeney rides, and he'll need to use Mostar Dreams' course familiarity to compensate for the wide berth. She's not without a chance if the pace is strong and she can come from off the tempo.

Going and Draw: What the Track Tells Us

Good to Firm in places at Goodwood in early August is about as predictable as the weather allows. The soil moisture reading of 40% on Friday morning suggests the ground isn't going to ease overnight — if anything, a dry back is anticipated, meaning it could be riding quicker by race time. That favours horses with a turn of foot rather than those who grind it out.

On the draw, Goodwood's unique topology means there's no hard and fast rule, but low to middle draws (stalls 1-6) have historically been advantageous at this trip. The course bends right-handed into the straight, and horses drawn wide can find themselves doing extra work early. Stalls 1, 2, 3, 4 and 6 look the most favourable on paper. Mostar Dreams in 11 and Noche Clasica in 9 will need their jockeys to be clever.

  • Best draws: 3 (Fallen Angel), 4 (Alobayyah), 6 (Pacific Mission)
  • Workable draws: 1 (Aviatrice), 2 (Silenciosa), 5 (Rumba Numba), 7 (Maeva)
  • Disadvantaged draws: 9 (Noche Clasica), 10 (Calendar Girl), 11 (Mostar Dreams)

Value Picks and Dangers

Fallen Angel is the class act and will be odds-on or close to it. There's no shame in backing her — she's a worthy favourite — but the value in this race lies elsewhere. Pacific Mission is the one I keep coming back to. A 107-rated three-year-old with the age allowance, trained by Balding in flying form, with Colin Keane booked — that's a horse who could well be ahead of her mark. If she goes off at anything above 3/1, she represents genuine each-way interest.

Noche Clasica is my each-way saver at a bigger price. Bethell has been too good this season to ignore, and a distance-proven filly with a sharp jockey could easily run into the frame. Alobayyah is also worth a small each-way interest given the Haggas/Marquand combination and the sympathetic draw.

My Selection: Dick Hern Stakes 2026

Selection: Pacific Mission (Win/Each-Way)

I'll be honest — Fallen Angel is the best horse in this race and I wouldn't argue with anyone who backs her. But at the prices she'll be, I want to be on the one who can beat her, and that horse is Pacific Mission. Andrew Balding has targeted this race, Colin Keane doesn't travel for fun, and a 107-rated three-year-old filly getting the Classic allowance is a potent combination on Good to Firm ground at Goodwood. She's drawn six — right in the pocket — and the tongue-tie suggests connections have left no stone unturned in getting her ready. She's my idea of the winner.

Each-way saver: Noche Clasica — Bethell's filly is worth a small each-way interest at any price above 8/1.

Who is the favourite for the Dick Hern Stakes 2026?

Fallen Angel is the clear market leader and will likely go off at a short price. Rated 116, she's the highest-rated horse in the field by some margin and is a course and distance winner at Goodwood. Trained by K. R. Burke and ridden by James Doyle, she's the one everyone else has to beat. The only caveat is whether Burke has her primed specifically for this or is using it as a prep run for a Group race — but even at 80%, she's hard to oppose on ratings alone.

Does the draw matter in the Dick Hern Stakes at Goodwood?

Yes, it does — though it's not as decisive as at some flat tracks. Goodwood's right-handed course with its distinctive camber and undulating straight tends to favour horses drawn low to middle at around the seven-to-eight furlong trip. Wide draws (stalls 9-11) aren't a death sentence, but horses drawn out there need their jockeys to be proactive in the early stages to avoid getting shuffled back on the bend. At Good to Firm going, where the pace is likely to be strong, wide-drawn runners may find it harder to recover if they get behind the tempo.

Can a three-year-old filly win the Dick Hern Stakes?

Absolutely — and it happens more often than the market sometimes reflects. The 7lb age allowance that three-year-olds receive against older horses in open-aged races is significant, particularly when you have a filly rated 107 like Pacific Mission. On adjusted ratings, she's competitive with the top older fillies in this field. Historically, well-bred, improving three-year-old fillies from top yards have a solid record in this type of Listed race at Goodwood in August, when the Classic generation is often reaching peak form after a summer campaign. Don't underestimate the younger generation here.