The Midlands Grand National: A Test of True Stamina
The Jenningsbet Midlands Grand National has carved out its place as one of the season's most compelling staying contests. At 4m 2f 8y, this is a proper test of stamina and jumping — a race that sorts the wheat from the chaff over Towcester's demanding track.
With £160,000 on offer and soft going that's bordering on heavy in places, Saturday's renewal promises to be a war of attrition. The current going description mentions 'areas of standing water' — code for testing conditions that will favour the genuine stayers and sound jumpers.
I've walked this track countless times, and when it gets soft like this, it becomes a completely different proposition. The long back straight feels endless, and those final two fences can catch out tired horses. This isn't a race for the faint-hearted.
The Market Leaders Under the Microscope
Rock My Way arrives as the 138-rated topweight, and Joe Tizzard's charge has earned that mark the hard way. The eight-year-old has been campaigned intelligently this season, with Brendan Powell keeping the partnership intact. The blinkers and tongue-tie combination suggests they're pulling out all the stops, and at 12-0, he's getting a fair crack at this.
What I like about Rock My Way is his consistency. He doesn't know how to run a bad race, and over this trip on testing ground, that reliability becomes gold dust. Powell knows the horse inside out, and the Tizzard team have a knack for getting their horses spot-on for the big occasions.
My Immortal brings veteran savvy to the party. At ten years old, Barry Connell's gelding has seen it all before. Mr Finian Maguire takes the ride, and the amateur's claim could be crucial in a tight finish. The horse's rating of 135 gives him every chance off 11-11.
I remember watching My Immortal in similar conditions two seasons back — he just kept finding more when others had cried enough. That's the sort of attitude you need in a race like this.
Deafening Silence represents the Harry Skelton and Dan Skelton combination that's been firing on all cylinders lately. Rated 134, this nine-year-old has the profile of a horse who could improve again for the step up in trip. The Skeltons don't miss many tricks, and if they think he'll stay the journey, he probably will.
The Dangers and Each-Way Angles
Collectors Item cannot be ignored, especially with that course winner tag beside his name. Jonjo O'Neill Jr. knows every blade of grass around here, and when the O'Neills target a race like this, they usually mean business. At 11-9, he's weighted to go close.
The course form angle is significant at Towcester. It's a unique track that can catch horses out, so having that experience in the bank is invaluable. Aworkinprogress and Minella Blueway also boast course wins, making them interesting at bigger prices.
Isaac des Obeaux brings the Paul Nicholls magic to the table. The master of Ditcheat knows how to win these big handicaps, and Sam Twiston-Davies is as good as they come over fences. Don't be surprised if this one comes with a late rattle.
For the each-way punters, Jupiter Allen looks overpriced. Chester Williams doesn't have many runners, but when he does venture out for a race like this, they're usually well-prepared. At 127, this seven-year-old could easily outrun his odds.
Ground Conditions and Tactical Considerations
The soft going with standing water will play a huge part in how this race unfolds. In these conditions, early pace becomes less important than stamina and jumping accuracy. Horses that can quicken off a strong gallop will struggle — this becomes about who can grind it out longest.
I expect to see a steady pace through the early stages, with the real race beginning from three out. The long run-in at Towcester will sort out the genuine stayers from the pretenders.
The experienced jockeys will have a significant advantage. Powell, Maguire, and the Skelton brothers know how to ride these tactical affairs. They'll be looking to get into contention turning for home rather than making ambitious moves too early.
Who is the favourite for the Jenningsbet Midlands Grand National?
Rock My Way heads the market as the 138-rated topweight. Joe Tizzard's eight-year-old has earned favouritism through consistent performances at the highest level, and the partnership with Brendan Powell has been particularly effective this season.
Which horses have course form at Towcester?
Three runners boast course-winning form: Collectors Item, Aworkinprogress, and Minella Blueway. This local knowledge could prove crucial on Towcester's unique track, especially in testing ground conditions where experience becomes even more valuable.
How will the soft going affect the race?
The soft going with areas of standing water will favour genuine stayers and accurate jumpers. It will likely produce a steady early pace with the real race beginning from three fences out. Horses that rely on a turn of foot may struggle in these energy-sapping conditions.
The Verdict
This looks a typically competitive renewal of the Midlands Grand National. While Rock My Way sets a solid standard at the top of the weights, the testing conditions could level the playing field considerably.
My selection is My Immortal each-way. The ten-year-old has exactly the right profile for this — experienced, genuine, and effective on soft ground. The amateur rider's allowance gives him a real weight advantage, and Barry Connell has been patient with his preparation.
For the forecast, I'll take My Immortal with Collectors Item. The O'Neill horse's course form could be the edge in a tight finish, and Jonjo Jr. rides these tactical races as well as anyone.
In a race where stamina and jumping accuracy matter more than pure speed, sometimes the old-fashioned virtues win the day. My Immortal has both in spades.
