A Supreme Test at Carlisle
There's something special about a Grade 1 novice hurdle in March. The cream of the jumping crop, tested but not yet battle-hardened, squaring up for what could define their careers. The Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle at Carlisle on Tuesday delivers exactly that theatre, with £150,000 on the table and reputations to be made or broken over two miles and 87 yards.
The good to soft ground should suit most, though those wanting genuine soft conditions might find it a fraction quicker than ideal. Carlisle's undulating track demands stamina and jumping prowess in equal measure – there's nowhere to hide when the pace lifts approaching the final flight.
The Market Leaders
Old Park Star arrives as the form pick with a rating of 151 that towers over this field. Nicky Henderson's six-year-old brings both course and distance form to the party – a combination that's worth its weight in gold at this level. Nico de Boinville takes the ride, and their partnership has clicked beautifully this season. The gelding's jumping is mechanical in its precision, and he's shown the tactical speed to win from the front or off the pace.
What concerns me slightly is the weight of expectation. Henderson's stable has been in tremendous form, but Old Park Star hasn't faced a field quite this deep before. Still, class usually tells in Grade 1 company.
Talk The Talk represents Joseph O'Brien with a rating of 150 that suggests this could be close. The five-year-old has been carefully campaigned and arrives here fresh after a winter break. J.J. Slevin's booking is significant – O'Brien doesn't use him lightly in the big races. This horse's turn of foot on better ground has been impressive, and while the conditions might not be ideal, his class could shine through.
The Mullins Battalion
Willie Mullins fields three, which tells you everything about the strength in depth at Closutton. Leader d'Allier gets the P. Townend ride and sports a tongue tie for the first time. That's usually a positive sign from the Mullins camp – they've identified an issue and addressed it. The five-year-old's French form translates well to these shores, and his jumping has been foot-perfect in his limited starts over timber.
Mighty Park with Mark Walsh might be the pick of the Mullins trio on pure ability. This gelding has that scopey, rangy build that screams chaser in the making, but he's shown a devastating turn of foot over hurdles. If the pace is genuine, expect him to be finishing strongly.
Too Bossy For Us completes the Mullins assault. Harry Cobden's association suggests this one has been earmarked for bigger things. The tongue tie again hints at untapped improvement, and his rating of 134 might underestimate his true ability.
The Dark Horses
Don't overlook Eachtotheirown from the Barry Connell stable. His rating of 138 puts him right in the mix, and Sean Flanagan has been riding with real confidence this season. Irish raiders often spring surprises in these big handicaps, and the seven-year-old brings solid form to the table.
El Cairos represents Gordon Elliott without a rating, which makes him fascinating. Jack Kennedy wouldn't be here without good reason, and Elliott's record with lightly-raced improvers speaks for itself. The distance winner tag suggests he'll stay every yard of this trip.
Koktail Brut is Elliott's second string with a hefty rating of 145. Danny Gilligan takes the ride on what could be a live outsider if the market underestimates his chances.
Conditions and Tactics
The good to soft, good in places going should play to most strengths here. Carlisle's track rewards those who can quicken off a strong pace, and with this field's quality, we should get exactly that. The undulating nature means stamina is at a premium – those two miles and 87 yards can feel like three in testing conditions.
Expect Willie Mullins to have his trio positioned at different points in the race. That tactical flexibility often pays dividends in big fields, allowing one to capitalize if the race unfolds differently than expected.
The Verdict
This shapes up as a cracking renewal with genuine depth. Old Park Star sets the standard, but his price might be cramped given the quality of opposition. Talk The Talk appeals as the value alternative among the market leaders, while Leader d'Allier could provide the Mullins magic at a bigger price.
My selection is Talk The Talk each-way. O'Brien's patient approach with this gelding suggests he's been aimed at this type of contest, and Slevin's booking reinforces that confidence. The five-year-old has the class to compete at this level and might just have more improvement in the tank than his more exposed rivals.
For the full Carlisle racecard and latest betting, this promises to be a Supreme test worthy of its Grade 1 status.
Who is the favourite for the Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle?
Old Park Star heads the betting as the 151-rated favourite for Nicky Henderson. His combination of course and distance form, plus Nico de Boinville's partnership, makes him the horse to beat. However, Talk The Talk and the Willie Mullins trio are all expected to be prominent in the market.
What are the key form pointers for this race?
The ratings tell a clear story, with Old Park Star (151), Talk The Talk (150) and Sober Glory (148) setting the benchmark. Course and distance winners like Old Park Star and El Cairos hold obvious advantages, while the presence of tongue ties on Leader d'Allier and Too Bossy For Us suggests untapped improvement from the Mullins camp.
How will the ground conditions affect the outcome?
The good to soft, good in places going should suit most runners, though it might be a fraction quicker than ideal for those wanting genuinely soft conditions. Carlisle's undulating track in these conditions will test stamina reserves, potentially favouring those with proven staying power over the trip like the flagged distance winners in the field.
