A Premier Handicap Worth the Journey North
The Trustmarque Ultima Handicap Chase has quietly established itself as one of the most competitive staying handicaps outside the Festival circuit. This £150k prize draws quality from across Britain and Ireland, and Tuesday's renewal looks particularly strong with 22 declared runners. Carlisle might not have the glamour of Cheltenham or Aintree, but this race consistently attracts horses rated in the 140s and 150s - proper Grade 1 performers dropping back into handicap company.
The going description of good to soft, good in places should suit most of these. I walked the course yesterday morning and found it riding on the easier side of good to soft - perfect conditions for a staying chase in March. The ground has enough give to test stamina without becoming a slog.
The Market Leaders Under the Microscope
Iroko tops the weights on 12-0, and rightly so given his rating of 157. The eight-year-old has been a model of consistency for the Greenall-Guerriero team, winning here before which counts for plenty round these tricky bends. Jonjo O'Neill Jr. knows him well and the tongue-tie suggests they're leaving no stone unturned. His last run was a creditable fourth in the King George - that's top-level form, even if he couldn't quite get home.
Handstands represents serious danger off 11-12. Ben Pauling's seven-year-old has been crying out for this trip all season. His runs over shorter have been full of promise, staying on when others stopped. Ben Jones gets on well with him, and the lack of headgear suggests he's settled into his work nicely. The 155 rating looks workable given the way he's been finishing his races.
Resplendent Grey caught my eye in the entries. Olly Murphy has had this race in mind for weeks, and the blinkers going on tells you everything about intent. Sean Bowen travelled up specially for this ride, which speaks volumes. The eight-year-old has been running well without winning, but this trip and track combination could unlock improvement.
Jagwar is the stable companion to Iroko and another course winner. The 152 rating puts him right in the mix, and Mark Walsh is a shrewd booking. These Greenall-Guerriero horses know how to get round here, and having two live chances gives them a tactical edge.
The Going and Course Considerations
Carlisle's unique figure-of-eight track catches plenty of horses out. The bends come thick and fast, and there's no hiding place for a horse that doesn't handle the undulations. Those course winners in the field have a significant edge - Leave of Absence, Blaze The Way, Stolen Silver, Hyland, and Myretown all know the drill.
The good to soft ground will play to the strengths of the true stayers. Over three miles and a furlong, with Carlisle's energy-sapping turns, this becomes a proper test of stamina. Horses that have struggled to get home over shorter trips might find their optimum distance here.
I'm particularly interested in Leave of Absence for Anthony Honeyball. The nine-year-old is both a course and distance winner - that's gold dust in a race like this. Rex Dingle knows him inside out, and the 11-3 mark looks very fair for a horse of his proven ability at the trip.
Value Picks and Potential Dangers
The Irish raiders deserve respect. Blaze The Way for the Mullins team is another course winner, and Danny Mullins rarely makes the journey without a live chance. The 146 rating might underestimate a horse that's been campaigned carefully with this type of race in mind.
Search For Glory from Gordon Elliott's yard is interesting at bigger odds. The nine-year-old has been running in better company than this rating suggests, and the combination of blinkers and tongue-tie hints at a horse they're trying to sharpen up. At 145, he could be well treated if returning to form.
Don't overlook Hyland for Nicky Henderson. The Seven Barrows team rarely send horses this far north without good reason, and Nico de Boinville's presence suggests they fancy their chances. As another course winner, he knows how to negotiate these turns.
At the bottom of the weights, Patter Merchant could outrun his odds. Jack Kennedy wouldn't be here unless Gordon Elliott thought the seven-year-old had a chance, and 10-5 looks light for a horse from that stable.
The Verdict and Selection
This shapes up as a fascinating renewal with legitimate chances spread throughout the field. The course winners have obvious advantages, but class can overcome inexperience of the track in a race of this calibre.
I'm siding with Handstands as the selection. Ben Pauling has been patient with this horse, waiting for the right opportunity, and this looks it. The step up in trip should unlock improvement, and the 155 rating gives him every chance off 11-12. Ben Jones is riding with confidence, and I expect this seven-year-old to be staying on strongly when others cry enough.
For the each-way players, Leave of Absence makes plenty of appeal at longer odds. His course and distance form is rock solid, and 11-3 could prove generous for a horse that's tailor-made for this assignment.
Check the full Carlisle racecard for the latest market moves, but don't be surprised if this turns into a right old battle up the home straight. The best staying handicap chasers in training are here, and they'll take some sorting out.
Who is the favourite for the Trustmarque Ultima Handicap Chase?
Iroko heads the betting as top weight and highest-rated runner. His 157 rating and course-winning form make him the logical market leader, though the 12-0 burden is substantial over this trip. The market typically favours proven class in races of this nature.
Which horses have the best course form at Carlisle?
Several runners boast winning form at the track: Iroko, Jagwar, Blaze The Way, Leave of Absence, Stolen Silver, Hyland, and Myretown have all scored here previously. Leave of Absence stands out as both a course and distance winner, giving him a significant edge in this specialist test.
What makes this race so competitive?
The £150k prize money attracts horses rated between 122-157, creating a perfectly compressed handicap. The three-mile-one-furlong trip at Carlisle's demanding track tests stamina and jumping ability equally, while the good to soft ground should suit most runners. With 22 declared, it's one of the strongest staying handicaps outside the major festivals.
