A Proper Handicap to Get the Pulse Racing
Saturday's Virgin Bet A Good Bet Handicap Hurdle at Hexham serves up exactly what we want from a competitive Class 2 contest. Fourteen runners spread across 26 pounds of handicapping, with genuine chances scattered throughout the field. The £40,000 prize pot ensures the big yards have sent their ammunition north, and the good ground with soft patches should suit the majority of this field.
This is the type of race that separates the wheat from the chaff in handicap company. The 2m5f trip at Hexham is no gimme – it's a proper test of stamina that catches out the speed merchants. I've seen plenty of well-fancied sorts come unstuck on this undulating track when the pace quickens from the back straight home.
The Market Leaders Under the Microscope
Royal Infantry arrives as the class act on ratings, but that 12-0 burden looks substantial for a seven-year-old who's been campaigned hard. Dan Skelton's gelding has the engine for this trip, but Tristan Durrell will need to be cute from the saddle. The tongue-tie suggests connections are looking for that extra gear, which could be telling.
The Four Sixes represents excellent each-way value at his likely odds. This eight-year-old has been crying out for this trip – his best efforts have come when allowed to settle and stay on strongly. Sean Bowen knows exactly how to ride Olly Murphy's horses, and the distance winner flag tells its own story. At 11-12, he's well-handicapped.
North Lodge brings solid form to the table but questions remain about his appetite for a real battle. Alan King's nine-year-old is honest as the day is long, though Tom Bellamy will need to find the perfect pitch from the off. The good ground suits, but I'm not convinced he's got the tactical speed for this grade.
Double Powerful catches the eye as a progressive sort who could be ahead of his mark. Richie McLernon has struck up a useful partnership with this Neil Mulholland-trained gelding. The hood goes on for the first time, which often signals a step forward. His distance-winning form gives him a live chance.
The Henderson Factor and Dangers From the Pack
La Pinsonniere brings the Seven Barrows magic to proceedings. When Nicky Henderson sends a mare north for a handicap like this, you sit up and take notice. Nico de Boinville in the saddle adds significant appeal, and the 6lb sex allowance makes her mark of 130 look very workable. She's been kept fresh for a reason.
Further down the weights, Turndlightsdownlow demands respect as both a course and distance winner. Martin Keighley doesn't have many strings to his bow, but when he targets a race like this, the horse usually runs his race. At 10-13, he's nicely treated if reproducing his best form.
Nardaran represents the Paul Nicholls battalion and Harry Cobden's booking speaks volumes. This five-year-old has been gelded since his last run, which often sparks improvement. The tongue-tie suggests they're pulling out all the stops.
Ground Conditions and Tactical Considerations
The good to soft patches will play to the strengths of the staying types rather than the speed merchants. Hexham's unique characteristics – those undulating turns and the stiff climb to the line – favour horses who can quicken off a strong pace rather than those who rely on pure speed.
With fourteen runners, positioning will be crucial. The inside rail often provides the shortest route home, but traffic problems can develop quickly if you're caught on the wrong side of a slow-run race. The experienced jockeys will earn their corn here.
Who is the value bet in the Virgin Bet Handicap Hurdle?
The Four Sixes represents outstanding each-way value in this competitive heat. His rating of 138 puts him right in the mix, and the 8lb he receives from the topweight could prove decisive. Olly Murphy has his string in great form, and this gelding's best efforts have come over similar trips. Sean Bowen's 7lb claim brings him down to a very manageable 11-5 effective weight.
What are the main dangers to watch?
Don't overlook La Pinsonniere from the Henderson stable. The mare's sex allowance combined with Nico de Boinville's tactical nous makes her a serious threat despite her relatively modest rating. Turndlightsdownlow also warrants respect as a course specialist who could outrun his odds if the pace sets up right.
Who will win the Virgin Bet Handicap Hurdle?
My selection is The Four Sixes each-way. This honest gelding has been crying out for this trip and gets conditions to suit. Sean Bowen's claim brings his weight down to a very manageable level, and Olly Murphy's horses are running with real purpose at present. He should be involved from the last hurdle and could well get up in the closing stages.
The Verdict
This shapes up as a cracking renewal with legitimate chances spread throughout the field. While Royal Infantry sets the standard on ratings, his burden looks substantial in a race where the handicapper has done his job well. The Four Sixes gets the nod as the value play, with La Pinsonniere and Double Powerful heading up the list of dangers. Check the Hexham racecard for any late market moves, but this looks a race where the each-way players could clean up at the expense of the win-only brigade.
