Setting the Scene: £70,000 on the Line at Hexham

Now, I'll be honest with you — when you think of a £70,000 Class 2 handicap finale, your mind doesn't immediately wander to Hexham, does it? But here we are, and fair play to the William Hill London Mile Series for delivering its grand finale to this quirky little Northumberland track on Saturday the 5th of September. It's a proper end-of-summer showpiece, and with 14 qualified handicappers going to post over a mile on Standard to Slow ground, there's plenty to get the teeth into on the Hexham racecard.

The London Mile Series is one of those wonderful initiatives that gives horses rated in the 80s and 90s — the backbone of the handicap ranks — a genuine pot to aim at across the season. By the time a horse qualifies for this final, connections have done their homework. These aren't accidental entries. Every horse in this field has been pointed here with purpose, and that makes the form reading both fascinating and treacherous. You've been warned.

Going and Draw: The Hidden Handicappers

Standard to Slow at Hexham in early September — that's your first clue. We've had a damp late summer in the north of England, and the mile at Hexham is no Sunday stroll. It's an undulating, galloping track that puts a premium on stamina at the best of times, and when that juice is in the ground, you want a horse that stays every yard of the trip and then some. Any flat-track speedball who's been winning on fast ground elsewhere this summer wants to be treated with extreme caution here.

As for the draw, Hexham's mile start can be a bit of a lottery with a big field. Stalls 1 and 2 on the inside are generally considered favourable, as horses can slot in without burning unnecessary energy. With 14 runners, those drawn in the middle — stalls 6 through 10 — will need to be ridden with a bit of tactical nous to avoid getting shuffled back in the early exchanges. The wide draws, particularly 13 and 14, face a genuine challenge if the pace isn't strong from the off.

The Main Contenders: Who Can Win This?

Two Tempting (Draw 6, Rob Hornby, Jonathan Portman)

The top weight at 9-12, rated 98, and a course and distance winner — on paper, Two Tempting is the one they all have to beat. Jonathan Portman is a trainer who doesn't send horses on long journeys to Hexham for the fresh air, and booking Rob Hornby tells you everything about how serious these connections are. At seven years of age, this gelding knows his job inside out. The worry? That 9-12 is a hefty burden on ground that's going to be testing, and the draw in stall 6 is workable but not ideal. If he's spot on, he's the one to beat — but at a short price, he needs to be.

Popmaster (Draw 13, Billy Loughnane, Ed Walker)

Here's where I start to get a little twitchy. Billy Loughnane is one of the most exciting young jockeys in the country right now, and Ed Walker is a trainer who absolutely knows how to target a big handicap. Popmaster is an eight-year-old course and distance winner — this horse has been here before and won. The problem is stall 13 with 14 runners. On Standard to Slow ground, with that wide draw, Loughnane is going to have to be very clever indeed. He's young but he's brilliant, so don't write him off entirely — but the draw is a genuine concern and I'd want better odds than the market is likely to offer.

Nikovo (Draw 4, Oisin Murphy, Michael Herrington)

Now we're talking. Oisin Murphy doesn't ride in races like this unless he fancies his chances, and stall 4 is a lovely draw for a mile around here. Nikovo is a seven-year-old distance winner rated 92, carrying 9-6 — a very manageable weight in this company. Michael Herrington is a trainer who flies under the radar but absolutely knows how to get a horse ready for a big day. The Standard to Slow ground should suit a horse of this profile, and Murphy's tactical intelligence from stall 4 could be absolutely decisive. This is my each-way flag going up early.

Cavolo Nero (Draw 11, Kaiya Fraser, Harry Eustace)

A four-year-old course and distance winner for Harry Eustace — this is a yard with serious ambitions and Kaiya Fraser is a jockey very much on the rise. At 9-6 and rated 92, Cavolo Nero is unexposed enough at this level to potentially improve past some of these older rivals. The draw in 11 is the fly in the ointment, and I'd want to see how the market treats this one before committing fully. But Eustace targeting a £70k prize with a four-year-old who's already won here? That's not an accident, folks.

The Liffey (Draw 1, Rossa Ryan, Hayley Burton)

Ah, now here's a name that warms the cockles of this Irish heart. The Liffey — named after our beloved river, no doubt — draws stall 1, which is the golden ticket at Hexham over a mile. Five years old, rated 91, wearing a blinker and tongue tie, and a course and distance winner for Hayley Burton. The headgear combination tells me this horse needs to be switched on mentally, but Burton clearly knows the key to unlocking him. Rossa Ryan from stall 1 on ground that suits a galloper? This is a serious each-way shout and the value could be tasty.

Victory Ace (Draw 7, Finley Marsh, John Butler)

The sole three-year-old in the field, rated 89 and carrying 8-12. Course and distance winner, middle draw — Victory Ace is intriguing. Three-year-olds can run well fresh in these series finals, carrying less weight and with the handicapper not having fully caught up with them. John Butler is a trainer who spots an opportunity, and this horse's profile ticks a lot of boxes. The concern is that Standard to Slow ground can catch younger horses out when the older, more experienced rivals know exactly how to handle it.

Value Picks and Dangers to Watch

My value shortlist for this race looks like this:

  • Nikovo — perfect draw, perfect jockey, perfect ground profile. Each-way banker.
  • The Liffey — stall 1 is gold dust, and at a big price he could be the steal of the race.
  • Victory Ace — the three-year-old wildcard if you want a longer each-way option.

The dangers to my selection are obvious — Two Tempting is a proper horse, and if Portman and Hornby have him spot on, the top weight could simply outclass them all. And never, ever underestimate what Billy Loughnane can do from a bad draw. That lad could ride a winner from stall 14 in a monsoon.

Tom's Verdict: The Tip

Right, cards on the table. My selection is Nikovo at each-way odds. The combination of Oisin Murphy, stall 4, Standard to Slow ground that rewards genuine stamina, and a trainer in Michael Herrington who doesn't make unnecessary trips north — it all adds up beautifully. At 9-6, the weight is fair, and at seven years of age, this horse knows exactly what he's doing. Murphy will have him perfectly placed from that draw, and when they turn for home on this undulating track, I want a horse who stays and a jockey who thinks. That's Nikovo.

Each-way the Liffey as your saver — stall 1 is too good to ignore, and Rossa Ryan will make that draw count from the first stride. If the market underestimates him because of the headgear, so much the better for us.

Good luck to all, and may your each-way returns be plentiful on what should be a cracking afternoon's racing at Hexham.

Who is the Favourite for the William Hill London Mile Series Final Handicap Stakes?

Based on the weights and ratings, Two Tempting (rated 98, trained by Jonathan Portman and ridden by Rob Hornby) is likely to head the market as the top-rated runner in the field. He's a course and distance winner carrying 9-12, and Portman rarely targets a race of this nature without serious intent. However, the weight and the Standard to Slow ground make him vulnerable to each-way dangers at bigger prices.

Does the Draw Matter in the William Hill London Mile Series Final at Hexham?

Absolutely it does, and significantly so with 14 runners over a mile at Hexham. The inside draws — particularly stalls 1 through 5 — are generally favoured, as horses can find a comfortable position without wasting energy. Stall 1 (The Liffey) and stall 4 (Nikovo) are the standout draws in this field. Wide draws like 13 (Popmaster) and 14 (Blue Prince) face an uphill battle, particularly on ground that's testing stamina from the outset.

How Does the Standard to Slow Going Affect the William Hill London Mile Series Final?

Standard to Slow ground at Hexham in September is a genuine stamina examination. The undulating nature of the track means horses are already working harder than on a flat circuit, and when the ground is soft underfoot, pure speed counts for less and genuine staying power counts for more. Horses with proven course and distance form on similar ground — like Nikovo, The Liffey, and Two Tempting — hold a significant advantage over those whose best form has come on faster surfaces elsewhere this summer.