With the first of five Royal Processions having set the tone, the racing entertainment explodes into life on the opening day at Royal Ascot, with three of the seven races falling into the Group 1 category.
The opening Queen Anne Stakes and race four of the St. James’s Palace Stakes are two of the very best contests of the season. However, if all-out speed sets your punting pulse racing, Day 1 is all about the 5f King Charles III Stakes.
Formerly known as the King’s Stand Stakes, the race was renamed in 2023 as a nod to the 75th Birthday of our current monarch.
Offering £650,000 in total prize money, the Group 1 contest is amongst the most valuable sprint contests of the British season and regularly attracts a field of the best domestic speedballs and sprinting sensations from further afield.
This blink-and-you-’ll-miss-it content is a smash hit with punters but can be a tricky contest to unravel. Continuing our Royal Ascot series, we will turn to the trends for assistance. Here, we look back at the ten editions between 2015 and 2024, highlight the strongest stats and trends, and pick out our best bet for the 2025 King Charles III Stakes.
Fate of the Favourite
Only one of the ten editions in our sample fell to the market leader. With that favourite returning a price of 5/6, a £1 level stakes punt on the jolly returned a loss of £8.17. Eight of the ten winners returned a single-figure SP, with the 20/1 chance Goldream causing the biggest shock in 2015.
111+ Rating Required
The average rating of the winner remained remarkably steady at around 117 over our sample. Shock winner Goldream (111) was the lowest-rated winner, closely followed by the two most recent champs, Asfoora and Bradsell. Battaash topped the pile, having arrived with a rating of 126 in 2020. With all ten winners rated at least 111 on the day, we will use this as our first key stat.
Age of Winner
Open to runners aged three and older, the King Charles III Stakes provides an intriguing clash between the up-and-coming speedballs and the established sprinting stars. The youngsters have held their own in recent years, whilst Nature Strip became the joint oldest winner in the modern era in 2022. Overall, nine of the ten winners in our sample fell into the 3-6 age bracket.
Tough to Defy a Long Break
The King Charles III Stakes has favoured those arriving with race fitness on their side in recent years. Nine of the ten winners in our sample had appeared within the last 80 days. The brilliant Battaash was the only exception in 2020.
Proven Over the Minimum Distance
Connections are unlikely to target one of the speediest events of the season with a horse who has not previously displayed the pace to score over 5f. Sure enough, the vast majority of winners in our sample had at least one 5f win to their name.
Already Successful at a High Level
Whilst only half of the winners in our sample had previously landed a Group 1 event, all bar one had scored at Group 2 level or above.
Betting Recommendations: Walker Star to Sprint to Victory
34 runners remain in the 2025 King Charles III Stakes at the time of writing. However, only seven scored 5/5 on our key trends, namely:
- Starlust
- Storm Boy
- Asfoora
- Believing
- Mgheera
- Magnum Force
- Whistlejacket
We will turn to the next strongest trend to trim this list further. When looking at the past ten winners, seven had finished in the first three last time out. Applying this filter creates a final shortlist of:
- Believing, 5/1 with Betfred: Posted two excellent displays at Royal Ascot 2024, when finishing fourth in both this event and the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes. Most of her wins have come over 6f but she is a Group 2 winner over this trip. Arrives on a high, having bagged a first career Group 1 out in Meydan in April.
- Mgheera, 12/1 with Betfred: Formerly based in France, this mare only arrived at the Ed Walker yard in April but has soon settled in. A perfect two from two for her new trainer, she claimed the Group 2 Temple Stakes on her first start in Britain.
- Whistlejacket, 16/1 with Betfred: Group 1 winner as a juvenile, but that came over 6f. Zero from two in Group class events over the minimum trip, suggesting he may lack the speed for this. That said, he is one to bear in mind if the rain arrives.
The two fillies catch our eye in this contest and there isn’t much to split them. Believing’s course form counts in her favour, but that current price doesn’t offer much in the way of value. At present, we prefer to add Ed Walker’s recent French recruit to our each-way portfolio.
- Recommended Win Bet: Mgheera each way @ 12/1 with Betfred
 (1).webp){kind=small}
