Course Conditions and Overview
The going at Newton Abbot has eased to good to soft, soft in places after recent rainfall, which should suit the stamina types on what promises to be a cracking afternoon's sport. The Devon track serves up two Listed contests among eight races, making this one of the stronger midweek cards we'll see this month.
I walked the course this morning and the ground is riding on the easy side of good to soft. The hurdles track in particular is taking plenty of juice, which will favour horses with proven form on testing ground. The chase course is holding up slightly better, but we're still looking at conditions that will find out the genuine stayers.
Feature Race Analysis: The British EBF Gold Castle Novices' Hurdle
The £45,000 Listed novices' hurdle at 2:40 is the day's feature, and it's shaping up as a proper contest despite just six runners. No Drama This End heads the weights for Paul Nicholls and Harry Cobden, rated 144 and looking the one they all have to beat.
I've seen this horse twice this season and he's got that professional attitude you need at this level. His jumping is slick and he travels strongly through his races. The step up to nearly three miles shouldn't be an issue – his pedigree suggests he'll relish every yard.
Kazansky represents the Gordon Elliott yard and can't be dismissed lightly. The six-year-old has been knocking on the door in similar company and this easier ground will play to his strengths. James Bowen takes the ride and knows the horse well.
The Mares' Chase: Quality Despite Small Field
The Fair Maid of Perth Mares' Chase might only have four runners, but don't let that fool you – this is a competitive Listed contest worth £40,000. Panic Attack brings the highest rating at 147 and has course and distance form that reads well.
Apple Away caught my eye when working at Lucinda Russell's yard last week. The nine-year-old has won at this track before and Derek Fox's booking suggests connections are confident. At 138, she's getting weight from the favourite and could outrun her odds if the pace is honest.
Shecouldbeanything for Gordon Elliott is another with solid credentials. Sean Bowen has struck up a good partnership with this mare and she's proven on testing ground.
Ground Conditions Impact
The softer conditions will definitely come into play across today's Newton Abbot racecard. In the opening maiden hurdle, Newbrook Diamond's rating of 126 makes him hard to ignore, but I'd be more interested in Gee Force Flyer if the ground was firmer.
The novices' chase at 2:10 looks competitive with King Roly holding course and distance form. That's gold dust around here – Newton Abbot's unique undulations catch plenty of horses out first time. Barlovento has distance form and represents the in-form Olly Murphy yard.
Handicap Highlights
The Capercaillie Handicap Chase over two miles at 3:40 brings together some smart handicappers. Jigoro tops the weights off 140 but Gordon Elliott's horses are in flying form. The key here might be Heltenham, who has course form and gets the services of Harry Skelton.
I had a long chat with connections of The Other Mozzie last week and they're bullish about his chances. The seven-year-old has been working well at home and this trip should suit. Harry Cobden wouldn't be making the journey for nothing.
In the mares' hurdle, Flying Fortune brings solid form to the table. The softer ground will help her stamina kick in over this extended trip. Fresh As A Daisy has distance form and represents the shrewd Nicky Henderson operation.
Amateur Riders' Contest
The amateur jockeys' hurdle to close the card always provides entertainment. Follow Charlie has course form which gives him a significant edge. These conditional and amateur riders' races can throw up surprises, but course knowledge usually wins out.
Rioja Alta brings the highest rating but will need to settle better than last time. The step up in trip should help and Miss Becky Smith rides with confidence.
Best Bets and Ones to Watch
My strongest fancy of the day is No Drama This End in the feature Listed hurdle. The Nicholls horse has the class edge and should handle the ground well. At likely odds-on, he's more of a banker than a betting proposition.
For value, I'm drawn to Apple Away in the mares' chase. Her course form gives her a real edge and the weights look favourable. The Russell yard knows how to get one ready for a big day.
In the handicaps, keep an eye on Heltenham in the Capercaillie Chase. His course form is solid gold and the Skelton team are flying. The two-mile trip on this ground should suit perfectly.
The softer conditions make stamina more important than usual, so favour horses with proven form on similar ground. Newton Abbot's unique character will sort out the genuine article from the pretenders – it always does.
