Setting the Scene
The Grand Wynnstay Handicap Chase has evolved into one of the more competitive Class 2 contests on the calendar, and Saturday's renewal at Ascot looks no different. Named after the historic Welsh estate, this race often attracts a mix of seasoned campaigners and progressive types looking to make their mark at this level.
With £25,000 on offer and the course freshly vertidrained, conditions should be ideal for the seven-runner field. The good ground will suit most, though it's worth noting that Ascot's unique undulations can catch out the unwary. I've seen plenty of well-backed favourites come unstuck on this track when they've failed to handle the peculiar rhythm required here.
The Standout Contenders
Calico arrives as the clear class act on ratings, but that 12-0 burden looks punishing in the context of this race. The 10-year-old has been a consistent performer for the Skelton team, and Harry Skelton knows him inside out. The tongue-tie suggests they're pulling out all the stops, but I worry about his ability to concede lumps of weight to younger, improving types over this trip.
Personal Ambition represents the most obvious danger to the favourite. Ben Pauling's seven-year-old is 12lb better off at the weights compared to their last meeting, and that's a significant swing. Ben Jones has struck up a decent partnership with this horse, and the blinkers have sharpened him up considerably. His rating of 138 suggests he's still on the upgrade.
Grain d'Oudairies brings course and distance form to the table, which you ignore at your peril around here. Donald McCain's charge has been thereabouts in similar company lately, and Harry Cobden booking suggests connections fancy their chances. At 10-4, he gets a lovely racing weight.
Sir Tivo might be 12 years old, but this old warrior knows his way around Ascot like the back of his hand. Gary Hanmer has kept him fresh this season, and his course-and-distance credentials are impeccable. Danny McMenamin gets on well with the veteran, and 10-2 looks a gift for a horse of his experience.
Impact of Conditions and Course
The good ground should play to most runners' strengths, particularly after the recent vertidrainage work. Ascot's chase course demands stamina and jumping accuracy in equal measure. The long run-in can be brutal for horses who've given their all too early, something I witnessed firsthand when watching a well-backed favourite tie up badly here last season.
The absence of a draw advantage in jump racing means positioning will come down to jockey tactics and early pace. With only seven runners, there should be plenty of room for manoeuvre, though the experienced heads like Sir Tivo and Grain d'Oudairies might look to use their track knowledge to steal a march.
Value Picks and Potential Dangers
Obsessedwithyou catches the eye as a potential value play. Jamie Snowden's mare has course form in the book and represents the only female in the field. Mares can be tricky customers at this time of year, but when they're right, they often outperform their odds. Isabelle Ryder is a capable pilot who won't be overawed by the occasion.
Homme Public looks the most exposed of the field but can't be completely dismissed. Toby Wynne has been riding with confidence lately, and the combination of blinkers and tongue-tie suggests they're trying everything to unlock improvement.
The danger horse has to be Personal Ambition. His progressive profile and the significant weight swing with the favourite make him a serious threat. If Calico doesn't handle the burden, this could be the perfect opportunity for Pauling's charge to strike gold.
Final Selection and Verdict
After weighing up all the factors, I'm drawn to Sir Tivo as the value selection. His course-and-distance record speaks for itself, and at 12 years old, he's learned to pick his races carefully. The 10-2 weight allocation is perfect for a horse of his experience, and McMenamin's 7lb claim brings him down to a featherweight 9-9.
Calico will likely go off favourite, but the weight burden looks prohibitive against this quality of opposition. Personal Ambition poses the biggest threat to my selection, but I suspect Sir Tivo's local knowledge and tactical speed will prove decisive in what should be a fascinating renewal of this competitive handicap.
Check the full Ascot racecard for updated odds and declarations before placing your bets.
Who is the favourite for the Grand Wynnstay Handicap Chase?
Calico is expected to start favourite based on his superior rating of 150, though his 12-0 top weight makes him vulnerable to the improving types lower down the handicap.
Which horses have course and distance form?
Both Grain d'Oudairies and Sir Tivo boast course and distance winning form, while Obsessedwithyou has proven course form. This local knowledge could prove crucial around Ascot's unique chase track.
What impact will the good going have on the race?
The good ground should suit most runners, particularly after recent course maintenance. The conditions favour horses with tactical pace who can quicken off a strong gallop, making the experienced campaigners particularly appealing in this field.
