The Oaks: A Test of True Class
The Oaks remains one of the most prestigious prizes in the racing calendar, and Friday's renewal at Epsom Downs promises to be a cracker. Nine fillies have been declared for the £625,000 contest, with the field headed by Venetian Lace on a rating of 110.
What makes this Oaks particularly intriguing is the blend of proven Group performers and progressive types still on an upward curve. The going sits at 53% soil moisture – essentially good ground with a touch of ease – which should suit most of these fillies. But as anyone who's spent time watching races unfold on the Downs will tell you, it's not just about ability here. The camber, the turn, the undulations – they all play their part.
The Market Leaders
Venetian Lace arrives as the highest-rated filly in the field, and rightly so. Charlie Johnston has done a masterful job with this daughter of Sea The Stars, who's shown a relentless will to win in her three starts this season. Her rating of 110 tells only part of the story – she's the type who finds more when asked. William Buick takes the ride, and his partnership with the Johnston stable has been profitable this year. The slight concern? She's drawn widest of all in stall eight, which means she'll need to use energy early to get into a decent position.
Thundering On represents the Joseph O'Brien yard and brings a rating of 107 that probably underestimates her current ability. I watched her win at the Curragh last month, and the manner of that victory – quickening clear in the final furlong – suggested there's more to come. Dylan Browne McMonagle has struck up a good understanding with the filly, and the draw in five gives them options. O'Brien's fillies often improve significantly from three to four, but this one might not need to wait that long.
The Ballydoyle contingent is typically strong, with Amelia Earhart leading the charge for Aidan O'Brien. She's been fitted with a hood for the first time, which usually signals the trainer feels she needs to settle better. Ryan Moore wouldn't be on board unless connections felt she had a real chance, and her rating of 105 puts her right in the mix. The draw in four is perfect for Moore to track the pace and pounce.
The Beckett Battalion
Ralph Beckett saddles three in this race, which tells you everything about the strength in depth at his Kimpton Down stables. A La Prochaine might be the pick of the trio on ratings, but don't overlook K Sarra at a bigger price. Beckett has a knack for getting his fillies to peak for the big occasions, and James Doyle on A La Prochaine is a combination that's clicked before.
The third member of the Beckett team, On Message, brings course-winning form to the table. That's not to be sniffed at around here. Epsom's unique characteristics catch out plenty of good horses, so having proven you can handle the track is a significant advantage.
Value Picks and Dark Horses
Legacy Link from the Gosden stable deserves serious consideration at what should be a decent price. The Clarehaven team have been quietly confident about this filly's chances, and Colin Keane making the trip from Ireland to ride suggests they mean business. Her rating of 105 might not scream 'winner' on paper, but the Gosdens have a habit of producing their horses in peak condition for the big days.
Cameo is another Ballydoyle runner who could outrun her odds. W. M. Lordan takes the ride, and she's flagged as a distance winner – crucial at this trip. The draw in nine isn't ideal, but good fillies overcome poor draws.
The Verdict
This shapes up as a fascinating renewal of the Oaks, with several fillies holding legitimate claims. The going should suit most runners, though the draw could prove decisive in a race where early positioning matters enormously.
My selection is Thundering On. She's got the right blend of class and improvement to take this, and the Joseph O'Brien stable has been in excellent form. The draw gives Dylan Browne McMonagle plenty of options, and I suspect this filly is still on an upward curve.
For each-way value, I'm keen on Legacy Link. The Gosden team wouldn't be here unless they felt she had a real chance, and Colin Keane's booking is significant. At likely odds, she represents solid value in what looks a competitive renewal.
Check the full Epsom Downs racecard for all the day's action, but this Oaks looks the race of the card.
Who is the favourite for the Oaks?
Venetian Lace heads the betting based on her superior rating of 110, but Thundering On and Amelia Earhart are likely to be popular with punters given their connections and recent form.
Which trainer has the best chance in the Oaks?
Ralph Beckett saddles three runners, giving him multiple chances, while Aidan O'Brien's Ballydoyle team typically performs well in these big races. However, Joseph O'Brien's Thundering On might be the one to beat.
How important is the draw in the Oaks?
The draw can be crucial at Epsom, particularly over this trip. Low numbers generally have an advantage as they can save ground on the turn, while high draws like Venetian Lace's stall eight require tactical riding to overcome the disadvantage.
