Setting the Scene
The BetVictor British EBF Mares' Novices' Hurdle represents the climax of Market Rasen's Saturday card, and what a finale it promises to be. This Grade 2 contest serves as the series final for the EBF Mares' series, drawing together the cream of the staying novice hurdlers from across the country.
The £65,000 prize pot reflects the race's status, and with 16 declared runners, we're guaranteed a competitive affair. The extended trip of 2m 4f 118y will sort the wheat from the chaff, particularly on good to soft ground that'll test stamina reserves to the limit.
I've been covering this race for the best part of a decade, and rarely have I seen such depth in a mares' novice hurdle. The top half-dozen all hold legitimate claims, making this a punter's puzzle of the highest order.
The Leading Contenders
Charisma Cat (11-12, Tom Bellamy)
Alan King's six-year-old mare tops the weights with a mark of 124, and there's good reason for that. She's been the model of consistency this season, with her jumping improving markedly since switching from Dan Skelton's yard. King has always had a deft touch with mares, and Charisma Cat looks the type to relish this step up in trip.
The booking of Tom Bellamy catches the eye. He's ridden her twice for King with a win and a close second, suggesting a partnership that clicks. On good to soft ground, she's unbeaten in three starts, which bodes well for Saturday's conditions.
Betty's Daisy (11-11, Ben Jones)
Ben Pauling's mare arrives here in cracking form, with her rating of 123 putting her right in the mix. The application of a tongue-tie suggests connections are pulling out all the stops, and that's often a positive sign with Pauling's string.
Ben Jones has struck up a profitable partnership with the Pauling team this season, and his 7lb claim brings Betty's Daisy down to a workable 11-4. She's proven at this trip and handles cut in the ground, ticking most boxes for this contest.
Watamu (11-8, Harry Cobden)
Emma Lavelle's five-year-old represents the younger generation in this field, and her rating of 120 suggests she's been mixing it at a decent level. Lavelle has been quietly building a reputation with her mares, and the booking of Harry Cobden is significant.
Cobden doesn't take many outside rides these days, so his presence here suggests genuine optimism from connections. Watamu's form figures read well, and at five, she should still be improving.
Getawhisky (11-7, Harry Skelton)
The Skelton team arrive with a typically well-handicapped runner. Dan Skelton's eye for placing his horses is second to none, and Getawhisky's mark of 119 looks workable given her recent efforts.
Harry Skelton continues to ride with supreme confidence, and this mare has shown a liking for testing ground conditions. She's another who should appreciate the step up in trip.
Ground and Trip Analysis
The good to soft going plays right into the hands of the proven stayers in this field. Strong Run, Edith Pelham, and Pismo Beach all carry the 'distance winner' flag, which shouldn't be overlooked in a race of this nature.
I've walked this Market Rasen racecard many times, and the extended trip here really does find out the non-stayers. The uphill finish is particularly demanding when the ground has some give, and fitness will be at a premium.
The lack of draw numbers suggests this is purely about ability and tactics, with no positional advantage to consider. That puts the emphasis squarely on jockeyship and stamina.
Value Picks and Dangers
Fresh As A Daisy at 11-1 represents the most intriguing outsider. Nicky Henderson's mares often come good at this time of year, and she's been given a patient campaign that suggests a big target was always in mind. At her odds, she's worth a small interest.
Don't overlook Lorcan Williams on Indannya either. The five-year-old has been progressing nicely for Chester Williams, and her mark of 118 could prove lenient if she handles the step up in class.
The danger from the lower weights comes in the shape of Trinity Street. Sam Twiston-Davies rarely gets these big-field handicaps wrong, and Henry Daly's mare has been campaigned with a race like this in mind.
The Verdict
This is a cracking puzzle, but I keep coming back to Charisma Cat at the head of the market. Alan King's mare has the form, the conditions suit, and Tom Bellamy knows her well. She's proven at the trip and on the ground, which counts for plenty in a race of this nature.
For each-way value, Fresh As A Daisy makes appeal at bigger odds. Henderson's string are coming into form, and this mare has been kept fresh for a reason. The step up in trip should suit, and James Bowen is a capable pilot.
The selection: Charisma Cat to win, with Fresh As A Daisy each-way at the prices.
Who is the favourite for the Market Rasen Mares' Novices' Hurdle?
Charisma Cat heads the betting as the likely favourite, given her top rating of 124 and consistent form for Alan King. Her proven record on good to soft ground and at this extended trip makes her the logical market leader.
Which horses have proven stamina for the 2m 4f trip?
Strong Run, Edith Pelham, and Pismo Beach all carry the 'distance winner' flag, indicating they've won over similar trips before. This experience could prove crucial in a staying test on testing ground, making them all worthy of respect despite lower ratings.
What impact will the good to soft ground have on the race?
The good to soft conditions will emphasise stamina over speed, favouring horses with proven form on similar ground. Charisma Cat is unbeaten on good to soft, while several others including Getawhisky have shown they handle cut in the ground. The testing surface should play against any hold-up horses lacking proven stamina.
