Setting the Scene: A Proper Fillies' Mile to Savour

Now look, I know what you're thinking — Tom, you old jumps obsessive, what are you doing sniffing around a flat mile at Newbury on a Friday afternoon? Fair question. But I'll tell you this for nothing: the Betway British EBF Rosemary Stakes is one of those Listed races that genuinely rewards a bit of digging. It's a £70,000 prize for fillies and mares over a mile on good to firm ground, and this year's renewal has a lovely mix of seasoned older mares and precocious three-year-olds who aren't done improving. Nine declared, a proper spread of ages and ratings, and enough intrigue in the draw and going to keep a man entertained well past the first pint. Let's get stuck in.

Contender-by-Contender Breakdown

Estissa (3yo, Fanshawe/Murphy, Rating 98) — The One They'll All Be Chasing

Here's your likely market leader, and I'll be honest — she's entitled to be. A rating of 98 is the joint-highest in the field alongside Arisaig, and having Oisin Murphy in the saddle from draw six is about as good a starting position as you could ask for at Newbury. James Fanshawe is a trainer who knows exactly when his horses are ready, and he doesn't run fillies in Listed company for the craic. The absence of a distance winner flag is the only thing that gives me a moment's pause — if she's not proven over this mile, there's a question mark. But at three years old with a rating climbing like that, she's clearly a filly going the right way. Treat with respect, but don't mortgage the house.

Arisaig (5yo Mare, Johnston/Spencer, Rating 99) — The Old Soldier

The highest-rated runner in the field and drawn in stall one — now there's a combination that'll have Charlie Johnston rubbing his hands. Jamie Spencer is one of the great tactical riders in the business, and from the inside rail on a mare who's already proven over this distance, he'll be able to dictate his own terms to a large degree. At five years old, Arisaig knows her job. She's been around the block, she stays the mile, and Spencer will have her lobbing along in front or just off the pace before producing her at the business end. The concern? At 99 she's been tried at a higher level and hasn't quite cracked it — otherwise she'd be in Group company. But in this field, she's a serious player.

Alobayyah (4yo Filly, Haggas/Marquand, Rating 96) — The Haggas Wildcard

William Haggas sending out a 96-rated filly with Tom Marquand up is never something you dismiss lightly. She's a proven distance winner, she's drawn seven which is workable on the Newbury straight mile, and Haggas has been in cracking form. The yard has a habit of targeting these mid-autumn Listed races with fillies who've been quietly campaigned through the summer, and Alobayyah fits that profile. Marquand is a composed, intelligent jockey who won't panic if she's not immediately travelling — he'll find a way through. This is my each-way shortlist candidate.

Lizzana (3yo Filly, Botti/Ghiani, Rating 96) — Dark Horse Alert

Marco Botti is a trainer who doesn't get enough credit for his work with fillies, and Lizzana at 96 — equal to Alobayyah — is drawn in stall two which gives her every chance of getting a lovely run. Marco Ghiani is a jockey on the up, and a proven distance winner at three years old with a rating that suggests she's been mixing it in decent company. She could easily outrun her price if the market overlooks her in favour of the more fashionable names. Keep her very much onside.

Gilding The Lily (3yo Filly, Gosden/Buick, Rating 87) — The Course Form Temptress

Right, here's where it gets interesting. Gilding The Lily is rated only 87 — the joint-lowest among the three-year-olds — but she's a course and distance winner. That combination at Newbury on good to firm ground is not something you throw away. William Buick doesn't take rides in Listed races without believing he's got a shout, and John and Thady Gosden know this track inside out. She'll be racing from stall five, bang in the middle of the field, which suits Buick's style perfectly. The rating gap is real, but course form at Newbury can be worth a stone. Don't dismiss her.

Blingy's Sister (3yo Filly, Palmer/Lee, Rating 91) — Respect But No More

Hugo Palmer is a trainer capable of springing a surprise, and a rating of 91 isn't without merit. Clifford Lee is an underrated jockey who'll give her a fair crack from stall three. But without a distance winner flag and with stronger claims elsewhere, she's one for the shortlist rather than the nap column.

Going and Draw: Does It Matter Here?

Good, good to firm in places at Newbury — that's essentially ideal flat racing ground, and the straight mile here rewards horses who can travel smoothly and quicken. The draw is worth noting: stalls one and two (Arisaig and Lizzana) are well positioned, while the higher draws (Crystal Flyer in eight, Song N Dance in nine) will need luck in running or a strong pace to compensate. On good to firm, the pace tends to be honest, which suits hold-up horses and those with a genuine turn of foot. Horses proven over the distance get a significant boost on this type of going — the ground won't be doing any favours to those who want it soft underfoot.

Value Picks and Dangers

  • Estissa — Likely favourite, deserves her place at the head of the market but needs to prove the mile.
  • Arisaig — Top-rated, proven, Spencer aboard from stall one. Serious danger to all.
  • Alobayyah — Each-way appeal with Haggas and Marquand. Proven distance winner.
  • Lizzana — Dark horse. Low draw, solid rating, Botti knows his job.
  • Gilding The Lily — Course and distance form is compelling despite lower rating. Buick won't be wasting his time.
  • Song N Dance — Saffie Osborne is riding with real confidence this season, but stall nine and a rating of 86 makes it tough from here.

Tom's Tip: Arisaig to Deliver for Johnston and Spencer

Right, cards on the table. My selection for the 2026 Betway British EBF Rosemary Stakes is Arisaig. She's the highest-rated runner in the field, she's proven over this mile, she's drawn on the inside rail, and she's got one of the canniest tactical jockeys in the game on her back. Jamie Spencer on a front-running or stalking mare from stall one at Newbury is a combination that should have the bookmakers sweating. Charlie Johnston's yard has been in fine fettle, and a five-year-old mare at this level knows exactly what she's doing.

My each-way play goes to Alobayyah — Haggas and Tom Marquand don't show up at Listed level without intent, and she's a proven distance winner who could easily run into the places at a decent price.

Check the full Newbury racecard for all the details, markets and any late scratchings before you have your wager.

Good luck, and may the going be in your favour.

Who is the Favourite for the Betway British EBF Rosemary Stakes 2026?

Based on ratings and the quality of her connections, Estissa (trained by James Fanshawe, ridden by Oisin Murphy) is expected to head the market as the likely favourite. At a rating of 98, she's joint-top with Arisaig and represents a yard that targets these races with purpose. However, Arisaig — the highest-rated runner with course-proven credentials — is expected to be closely matched in the betting and represents strong each-way value.

Does the Draw Matter in the Rosemary Stakes at Newbury?

On the straight mile at Newbury, the draw is a genuine factor, particularly on good to firm ground where pace is honest and positions are established early. Low draws (stalls one to three) are generally advantageous as they allow horses to slot in without burning energy crossing to the stands rail. Arisaig (stall one) and Lizzana (stall two) are best positioned, while Crystal Flyer (stall eight) and Song N Dance (stall nine) will need things to fall right. It's not an insurmountable disadvantage from the high draws, but it's a factor worth pricing in.

Is Gilding The Lily Worth Backing Despite Her Lower Rating?

It's a fair question, and the honest answer is: possibly, at the right price. A rating of 87 is the lowest among the three-year-olds, but Gilding The Lily is a course and distance winner at Newbury, and that kind of specific form on a track that rewards local knowledge cannot be ignored. William Buick is not a jockey who wastes his Fridays, and the Gosden operation rarely runs fillies in Listed races without believing they're competitive. If she's available at double-figure odds, a small each-way interest is entirely justified.