A Grade 1 Anomaly Worth Following
It's not often you see a Grade 1 hurdle pitched up at Carlisle in March, but that's exactly what we've got with Thursday's Close Brothers Mares' Hurdle. The David Nicholson registered prize has found a temporary home in Cumbria, and what a field has assembled for the £125,000 pot.
Seven mares have declared for this 2m4f test, with ratings spanning from 129 to 154. The going is described as good, good to soft in places – perfect conditions for what should be a searching examination over this extended trip. I've been covering this race for fifteen years, and rarely have I seen such depth in a mares' Grade 1 outside of Cheltenham.
The Main Contenders Dissected
Wodhooh heads the market on official ratings at 154, and rightly so. Gordon Elliott's six-year-old arrives as both a course and distance winner – crucial factors that can't be ignored. Jack Kennedy takes the ride, and this partnership has been in stellar form lately. The mare's progression curve suggests she's still improving, and Elliott knows how to peak one for the big occasions.
The Willie Mullins battalion is represented by Jade de Grugy, a seven-year-old rated 150 who'll have P. Townend in the plate. This mare has been knocking on the door in Grade 1 company, and the step up in trip could unlock further improvement. Mullins' record in these staying hurdles speaks for itself.
Jetara brings solid credentials from the Jessica Harrington yard. The eight-year-old's rating of 145 might underestimate her on this surface – she's shown a real affinity for testing ground conditions. Sam Ewing knows the mare well, and the blinkers go on for the first time. That's often a positive sign from the Harrington camp.
Take No Chances represents the in-form Skelton team. Harry Skelton's booking catches the eye, and this eight-year-old has been running consistently at a high level. The stable's 25% strike rate over the past month suggests they're hitting form at the right time.
Feet of A Dancer comes from Paul Nolan's string with Sean O'Keeffe aboard. At seven, she's entering her prime years, and her rating of 144 puts her right in the mix. The Irish challenge looks strong across the board here.
Conditions and Course Considerations
This extended 2m4f trip at Carlisle will suit the stayers in the field. The track's undulating nature means stamina is at a premium, particularly on ground that's riding on the slower side of good. I walked the course yesterday morning, and there's definitely some cut in it despite the official description.
Wodhooh's course form gives her a significant edge. I've seen too many talented horses struggle to handle Carlisle's quirks on their first visit. The track has a long run-in that can catch out horses who've used up their petrol too early. Local knowledge counts for plenty here.
The good to soft patches will play to the strengths of the Irish-trained runners, who've been campaigning on similar ground all season. The British-trained horses might need time to adjust to the conditions, though Dan Skelton's string has been working well on the all-weather, suggesting they're adaptable.
Value Picks and Dangers
Sunset Marquesa catches my eye at likely odds. Joe Tizzard's mare is rated just 129, but she's a proven distance winner and Brendan Powell rarely gets these big-race calls wrong. The tongue tie goes on, which often signals a stable expects improvement. At her likely price, she represents solid each-way value.
Don't overlook Dream On Baby from the Emmet Mullins yard. The six-year-old is another with scope for improvement, and the Mullins family knows how to place their horses. Donagh Meyler has been riding with confidence, and this mare could outrun her odds.
The danger I'm most wary of is Jade de Grugy. Willie Mullins doesn't send them across the Irish Sea without serious intent, and Townend's presence suggests this is a live chance. If the market support comes for the Closutton runner, she'll be hard to oppose.
Who is the favourite for the Close Brothers Mares' Hurdle?
Wodhooh is expected to start favourite based on her superior rating and course-winning form. Gordon Elliott's mare has the tactical speed to position herself well and the stamina to see out this demanding trip. Her recent work reports have been positive, and Elliott's 30% strike rate with runners at this level makes her hard to oppose.
Which jockey has the best record in this race?
This being the first running at Carlisle makes historical jockey records irrelevant, but Jack Kennedy's partnership with Gordon Elliott gives him a significant advantage. Kennedy's strike rate aboard Elliott-trained horses in Grade 1 company over the past two seasons stands at an impressive 28%. His ability to judge pace over staying trips is second to none.
What are the ground conditions like at Carlisle?
The official going is good, good to soft in places, but my assessment suggests it's riding slower than the description indicates. There's genuine cut in the ground, particularly on the home straight. This will favour horses with proven form on testing surfaces and could catch out any runner who needs fast ground to show their best form.
The Verdict
This is a cracking renewal that could go several ways. Wodhooh sets a solid standard and her course form gives her a clear edge, but I'm drawn to the value on offer with Sunset Marquesa each-way. The Tizzard mare has been underestimated by the handicapper and could spring a surprise at rewarding odds.
For the win, I'm siding with Wodhooh. Elliott and Kennedy know what it takes at this level, and her combination of class, course form and current condition makes her the logical choice. Check the full Carlisle racecard for the latest market moves, but this looks a race where the favourite can deliver the goods.
