The Gold Cup Trail Heats Up
Friday's card at Ascot serves up the Longines Sagaro Stakes, the most telling Gold Cup trial of the season. This Group 3 contest over an extended mile and three-quarters has been the launching pad for numerous Royal Ascot heroes, and with £95,000 on offer, it's attracted a field that screams quality rather than quantity.
Nine runners have been declared for this Ascot racecard highlight, but don't let the modest field size fool you. The cream of Europe's staying division is here, each seeking that crucial confidence boost before the summer's biggest prizes. The good to firm ground (good in places) with a GoingStick reading of 8 will suit the speedier stayers, though it might just catch out those who need cut in the ground.
I've been trackside for enough of these trials to know that what happens here often shapes the entire staying season. The Gosden team has used this race as a Gold Cup springboard more times than I can count, and their presence today with Sweet William immediately elevates the contest.
The Principals
Sweet William heads the weights and the market for good reason. The seven-year-old gelding carries a hefty 9st 9lbs but his rating of 117 tells the story of a horse operating at the highest level. Robert Havlin takes the ride for John and Thady Gosden, a combination that's been surgical in these staying trials. The visor goes on for the first time, which in my experience with this yard usually signals they're looking to sharpen up a horse who's perhaps been a shade keen. From draw nine, Havlin will need to be positive early to avoid getting shuffled back in what could become a tactical affair.
The form book suggests Sweet William has been aimed at this from some way out. His last two runs have had the feel of prep races, and while he hasn't set the world alight, the Gosden horses have a habit of peaking when it matters most. At seven, he's entering his prime staying years, and this good ground should play to his strengths.
Caballo de Mar represents the George Scott stable and carries the hopes of many at 9st 11lbs. William Buick aboard is always a positive, particularly when it comes to tactical races like this. The five-year-old's rating of 114 puts him right in the mix, and his distance-winning form flag suggests he's proven at this trip. Scott's horses have been in tremendous form this spring, and this gelding arrives here with the right profile for a race like this.
What I like about Caballo de Mar is his versatility. He's shown he can race prominently or come from off the pace, which gives Buick options depending on how the race unfolds. Draw seven is workable, and at five, he's still potentially improving.
Tabletalk is an interesting runner for Tom Clover. Rated 113 and carrying just 9st 4lbs, he gets a significant weight pull from the principals. Rossa Ryan's booking suggests connections are serious about their chances, and the low draw in stall one could be crucial if this becomes a tactical affair. Clover's yard has been quietly going about their business, and this horse has the profile to spring a surprise at bigger odds.
The Supporting Cast and Dangers
Dubai Future brings the experience of a 10-year-old who's seen it all. Saeed bin Suroor's charge is a course winner, which counts for plenty around here, and David Probert knows him well. At his age, you'd expect him to need everything to fall right, but these old campaigners often find a way when the chips are down.
Deira Mile for Jessica Bedi is another to consider seriously. Dougie Costello has been riding with real confidence this season, and this five-year-old's rating of 111 suggests he's no mug. The booking of Costello often indicates a yard is confident, and at the weights, he's got to be respected.
Beylerbeyi brings Ryan Moore into the mix, which automatically makes him dangerous. Ian Williams has done well with staying types in recent seasons, and Moore doesn't take these rides lightly. The tongue tie suggests they're looking to settle him better, which could be key in a race that might develop into a sprint from the home turn.
Who represents the best value in the Sagaro Stakes?
While Sweet William will likely start favourite, I'm drawn to Tabletalk as the value play. Tom Clover's five-year-old gets in light at the weights, has tactical speed from his inside draw, and Rossa Ryan's presence suggests serious intent. The yard has been flying under the radar, and this horse has the right profile to outrun his odds.
At bigger prices, Deira Mile could be the each-way play. Jessica Bedi's horses often improve for big targets, and Costello's confidence with the stable suggests this one has been prepared specifically for this contest.
Will the going favour any particular runner?
The good to firm conditions will suit the horses with a bit of pace in their pedigree. Sweet William and Caballo de Mar both handle this ground well based on their breeding and previous form. The faster surface might just find out some of the more one-paced stayers, particularly Dubai Future at his advanced age.
Miss Alpilles, as the sole mare in the field, gets the sex allowance and could benefit from the quicker ground if she can get into a rhythm early. Ed Walker's charge is distance-proven and Kieran Shoemark knows her well.
The Verdict
This shapes up as a fascinating renewal with several legitimate chances. Sweet William has the class and connections to win this, but he's got plenty of weight to carry and questions to answer about his current form. Caballo de Mar looks the most solid proposition - he's in the right hands with Buick, comes from a stable in form, and has the tactical speed to position himself well from his draw.
My selection is Caballo de Mar to win, with Tabletalk as the value each-way play. The George Scott horse has everything in his favour - the right jockey, proven form at the distance, and a rating that suggests he belongs at this level. In a race where small margins often decide the outcome, having William Buick making the tactical decisions could prove decisive.
The winner here will be firmly in Gold Cup calculations come Royal Ascot, making this much more than just another Group 3. It's a stepping stone to summer glory, and Caballo de Mar looks best placed to take that crucial step forward.
