Setting the Scene: Why the Valiant Stakes Matters
There's something about a summer Saturday at Ascot that never gets old. The place hums with a particular kind of energy in July — the Royal meeting is a fading memory, the Flat season is in full swing, and the serious handicappers are doing their homework rather than worrying about what to wear. The Longines Valiant Stakes fits that mood perfectly.
This Group 3 contest over 7 furlongs and 213 yards is one of the most competitive middle-distance sprints on the summer calendar for fillies and mares. At £95,000 in prize money, it attracts genuine talent, and the open rating band means you get that intriguing clash between battle-hardened older mares and lightly-raced three-year-olds still finding their ceiling. That age dynamic is often where the value hides — and this year is no different.
Check the full Ascot racecard for all the day's action, but make sure this one is circled. Eight runners, good to firm ground, and a goingstick reading of 8 on the stands side. Let's get into it.
Contender-by-Contender Analysis
Touleen (William Buick / Owen Burrows) — Draw: 7
Start with the obvious. Touleen is rated 112 and carries just 8-11, which is the beauty of the age allowance for three-year-olds in mixed-age contests. Owen Burrows has been patient with this filly — patience being something of a house style at his Lambourn yard — and William Buick doesn't take rides in Group 3s for fun. When that combination lines up, you pay attention.
A rating of 112 puts her in a different stratosphere to most of these, and while she doesn't carry the course or distance form flags, Burrows has shown repeatedly that he'll target a race like this with a filly he believes is ready to step up. Draw 7 on good to firm at Ascot is perfectly workable over this trip — she won't be buried. The question is whether she's fully wound up for this assignment. On ratings alone, she's the one to beat.
Kon Tiki (Ryan Moore / Jane Chapple-Hyam) — Draw: 2
If Touleen is the ratings banker, Kon Tiki is the one I'd want onside if there's any doubt. Rated 105, she's a distance winner and Ryan Moore takes the ride for Jane Chapple-Hyam — a trainer who knows exactly what she's doing with fillies at this level. Moore rarely wastes his Saturday afternoons, and from draw 2 on the stands side, he'll be ideally placed to control his own destiny.
Chapple-Hyam has a knack for placing her horses in races where the conditions suit, and good to firm on a straight Ascot track over this distance is a very specific ask that Kon Tiki has already answered. I'd expect her to be prominent, travel well, and give Touleen a genuine race. This is a serious contender.
Pina Sonata (Daniel Muscutt / James Fanshawe) — Draw: 4
James Fanshawe is the kind of trainer whose horses are always fitter than they look on paper. Pina Sonata is rated 103, carries 9-5 as an older filly, and is a distance winner — that last flag matters on a track where the unique camber and undulation of Ascot's straight can catch out horses without prior experience of the trip.
Daniel Muscutt is a smart, underrated jockey who rides with his head. From draw 4, he'll have options. I wouldn't dismiss her at a price — Fanshawe horses in summer Group races tend to be there on merit, not optimism.
Sukanya (Tom Marquand / Jack Channon) — Draw: 6
Rated 104 and carrying the three-year-old allowance down to 9-0, Sukanya is interesting. Jack Channon's yard has been in decent nick, and Tom Marquand is a jockey who rides with real tactical intelligence — he won't be bullied into a bad position from stall 6. No course or distance form flags, which gives me slight pause, but the rating suggests she's capable, and three-year-olds with upside are always dangerous in these mixed-age affairs. One for the shortlist.
Skydance (Oisin Murphy / W. McCreery) — Draw: 3
Rated 105 — joint-highest among the three-year-olds alongside Touleen's rivals — Skydance is trained by Willie McCreery, who sends horses to England when he fancies them. Oisin Murphy needs no introduction. From draw 3, she'll be handily placed. The absence of distance form flags is a mild concern over this specific trip, but Murphy will know the track and the ground suits quick horses. Don't ignore her.
Arisaig (Jamie Spencer / Charlie Johnston) — Draw: 8
A five-year-old mare rated 101, Arisaig is a distance winner which gives her credentials here. Jamie Spencer is one of the most tactically astute riders in the game — he's won Group races from worse positions than stall 8 with less. Charlie Johnston runs his horses to win, not to make up numbers. She's up against it on ratings, but at a price, Spencer's genius from the widest draw could make her interesting each-way.
Going and Draw: Key Factors on the Day
A goingstick reading of 8 on the stands side tells you everything — this is quick ground. Ascot's straight course on good to firm rewards horses with a high cruising speed and the ability to quicken off a strong pace. It's not a track that forgives sluggish beginners or horses that need soft underfoot conditions to show their best.
The draw is worth noting. With 8 runners spread across the track, the middle-to-low draws (stalls 2-5) look advantageous — horses can find cover, get a clean run, and pick their moment. Stall 8 (Arisaig) is the widest, which Spencer will need to manage carefully. Stall 7 (Touleen) is fine — Buick is more than capable of angling across without losing ground. Stall 1 (Cheshire Dancer) with Colin Keane aboard is interesting — she's a course and distance winner, and Keane may look to use that inside berth to steal a march on the field.
Value Picks and Dangers
The danger to the market leader is almost certainly Kon Tiki. She ticks every box for conditions, has the jockey, and Chapple-Hyam will have her primed. If Touleen is slightly short of her peak — always a risk with lightly-raced three-year-olds — Kon Tiki will be there to pounce.
Cheshire Dancer deserves a mention as the value shout. She's the only runner in the field with both course and distance winning form. Rated just 95, she's the outsider on paper, but Colin Keane from stall 1 on a track she's won on before? I've seen bigger shocks. Each-way punters should take note.
- Touleen — Banker on ratings and jockey/trainer profile
- Kon Tiki — Main market rival, conditions ideal
- Cheshire Dancer — Each-way value, course and distance form
- Pina Sonata — Fanshawe factor, don't dismiss at a price
My Selection: Touleen to Justify Favouritism
I've been around long enough to know that backing the obvious one feels uncomfortable — but sometimes the obvious one is obvious for good reason. Touleen is rated 112, gets in on 8-11 thanks to the age allowance, and has William Buick and Owen Burrows in her corner. That's a formidable team for a race like this.
The key risk is condition — if Burrows is using this as a stepping stone to something bigger, she might not be fully tuned. But the entry suggests intent, and Buick doesn't travel to Ascot on a Saturday to finish third. I'll take her at the top of the market and keep a small each-way interest in Cheshire Dancer for the place money.
Selection: Touleen (EW saver: Cheshire Dancer)
Who is the favourite for the Longines Valiant Stakes 2026?
Based on official ratings, Touleen (rated 112, trained by Owen Burrows and ridden by William Buick) is the clear market leader heading into the race. Her rating advantage of at least 7lbs over the next-best runners, combined with the three-year-old weight allowance, makes her the one to beat on paper.
Does the draw matter in the Valiant Stakes at Ascot?
On good to firm ground over this straight 7f trip at Ascot, the draw is a relevant but not decisive factor. Middle-to-low draws (stalls 2-5) offer a slight advantage in terms of cover and clean runs, but experienced jockeys like Buick (stall 7) and Spencer (stall 8) are more than capable of compensating from wider berths. The key is ground position after the first furlong rather than the draw itself.
Can a three-year-old filly beat older mares in the Valiant Stakes?
Absolutely — and it happens regularly in mixed-age Group races during the summer. The weight allowance for three-year-olds levels the playing field considerably, and a filly rated 112 like Touleen carries 8-11 against the older mares on 9-5. If the younger filly has the class and is in good form, the allowance can be decisive. History shows that three-year-olds with genuine Group-race ability often thrive in these contests when conditions suit.
