A Proper Test of Staying Power
The Remembering Duncan Davidson Handicap Chase has quietly established itself as one of Hereford's premier staying contests. At three miles and two furlongs, it sorts the genuine stayers from the pretenders, and Saturday's renewal looks a cracking affair despite the compact field of six.
Duncan Davidson was a stalwart of the West Country racing scene, and this race attracts the sort of honest, workmanlike chasers he'd have appreciated. The £35,000 prize fund ensures connections take it seriously, while the open handicap format means we get a proper spread of abilities.
The going description of good to soft, soft in places shouldn't put anyone off. Hereford's drainage work has been exemplary this winter, and I'm told the track will ride better than it reads on paper.
The Principals
Cadell heads the weights off 135 and deserves respect. Lucinda Russell's eight-year-old has been a model of consistency, and his course-and-distance credentials are impeccable. Jack Power takes the ride, and his 7lb claim brings the gelding down to a manageable 11-7. The blinkers go on for the first time, which suggests connections feel he's been racing a touch lazily.
Fortunate Man represents the O'Neill dynasty and comes here fresh from a decent third at Wetherby. The seven-year-old stays well and Jonjo O'Neill Jr. knows him inside out. At 127, he's well handicapped if reproducing his best form from two seasons back.
Dare To Shout is another course winner who relishes these conditions. Ann Hamilton's nine-year-old has been threatening a big performance all winter, and Danny McMenamin gets on well with him. The tongue-tie suggests they're pulling out all the stops.
Aboutdamntime drops back from four-mile trips and could be well treated off 119. Oliver Greenall's string are in good heart, and Craig Nichol is riding with confidence. This gelding's best form has come with cut in the ground.
The Outsiders and Value Plays
Breeze of Wind looks up against it off his current mark, though Sean Quinlan wouldn't be wasting his time if connections didn't fancy their chances. Stuart Coltherd's nine-year-old needs everything to fall right.
Blakey Boy is the baby of the field at six and represents potential improvement. Ewan Whillans has done well with staying chasers, and the lack of headgear suggests they want him to settle and learn. One for the notebook rather than the each-way book.
The value play here might be Aboutdamntime. He's 8lb lower than his last winning mark and showed distinct signs of a revival when fourth at Carlisle last month. The step back in trip could be the key, and he'll get a lovely tow into the race.
Going and Tactical Considerations
The good to soft ground with soft patches will suit the majority of this field. Cadell has won on worse, while Fortunate Man's best efforts have come with give underfoot. The course's undulating nature means stamina is at a premium, particularly up the testing home straight.
Tactically, expect Dare To Shout and Aboutdamntime to force the pace early. Cadell will likely sit handy under Power, while Fortunate Man has the tactical speed to be ridden more prominently than usual. The key will be who travels best turning for home – this track finds out the non-stayers quickly.
The Verdict
This shapes up as a proper staying test, and I keep coming back to Cadell as the answer. Yes, he's top weight, but Power's claim helps significantly. The course form is rock solid, and the first-time blinkers could eke out that extra gear Russell clearly thinks is there.
Fortunate Man rates the biggest danger if bouncing back to his best, while Aboutdamntime offers the best each-way value at likely odds. In a race that should be run at a genuine gallop, class and experience should tell.
Selection: Cadell (win)
Each-way play: Aboutdamntime
Who is the favourite for the Duncan Davidson Handicap Chase?
Cadell is likely to start favourite despite carrying top weight of 12-0. His course-and-distance form, combined with Jack Power's valuable 7lb claim, makes him the logical market leader. The application of first-time blinkers suggests connections expect improvement.
Which horses have the best course form at Hereford?
Both Cadell and Dare To Shout are noted course winners, giving them significant advantages. Hereford's unique undulating track and testing finish can catch out newcomers, so previous experience here is invaluable in a competitive handicap like this.
How will the going conditions affect the race?
The good to soft, soft in places going should suit most runners, particularly Cadell, Fortunate Man, and Aboutdamntime who have all shown their best form with cut in the ground. The recent drainage work means the track should ride better than the official description suggests.
