With Saturday seeing the king of the three-year-old mile division crowned in the 2000 Guineas, it is only right that the fillies also get their chance to shine. That opportunity arrives just one day after the opening colts Classic, with the fillies-only 1000 Guineas serving as the centrepiece on the third and final day of the Betfred Guineas Festival.
One mile is once again the trip, as a field of the most beautifully bred and talented fillies battle for a place on the 1000 Guineas roll of honour and £548,450 in prize money.
Despite being won by outstanding talents, including Love, Minding, Winter, and Attraction, since the turn of the century, the 1000 Guineas has been just about the toughest of all five Classics to call in recent times. However, we can’t resist attempting to unravel the puzzle. Here, we look back at the ten editions of the race between 2015 and 2024, highlight the standout stats and trends, and pick out our best bets for the 2025 edition.
Fate of the Favourite
Over the ten editions in our sample, the favourite came home in front only once – handing supporters of the market leader a loss of £7.90 to £1 level stakes. We did mention this race has been a little tricky of late! Five winners returned a single-figure SP, three were priced between 10/1 and 16/1, and two were 28/1+. Billesdon Brook caused a monumental shock when defying odds of 66/1 in 2018 to become the longest-priced winner in the history of the race.
Top Trainers
Another Classic, and another race which sees Aidan O’Brien atop the recent trainer’s table. With a total of seven wins, O’Brien lies behind only Robert Robson on the all-time list. O’Brien has four runners amongst the remaining 15 entries, headed by one of the stars of 2024 - Lake Victoria.
Of the other trainers with a recent win, Charlie Appleby saddles the red-hot favourite Desert Flower, and Saeed bin Suroor relies on the unexposed outsider Elwateen.
Finishing Position Last Time Out
Winning the 1000 Guineas on the back of a poor outing appears to be a difficult task. Of the ten winners in our sample, four won on their most recent appearance, seven finished in the first two, and no winner finished any worse than fourth last time out.
Stamina Considerations
That only two 1000 Guineas winners had previously scored over a mile doesn’t come as the biggest surprise, as there aren’t too many 1m events for the more talented fillies before the Newmarket event. However, seven of nine had at least hinted at their ability to stay the distance with a win over 7f or further.
Stamina Considerations
The 120-rated Minding was the highest-rated winner in our sample, with the 99-rated Billesdon Brook bringing up the rear. The average pre-race rating of the winner over this period was 108, whilst eight of ten arrived with a rating of 106 or higher.
Experience an Advantage
When we looked at the 2000 Guineas, six of the ten most recent winners had three or four previous outings, whilst none had run more than six times. The fillies contest presents a different picture, with six of ten winners having seven or more previous runs and eight of ten having five or more.
Successful in Pattern Company
Only two winners had managed to score in Group 1 company before their 1000 Guineas success, whilst 2024 heroine Elmalka only had a Class 5 success to her name. Overall, most had proven themselves in decent company, with eight of ten having claimed an event at Listed class or above.
Other Factors
- Galileo was the leading sire over this period with four wins
- The Fillies Mile was the most informative juvenile event, with five of ten winners appearing in that contest over the Guineas course and distance. The Debutante Stakes and Moyglare Stakes were next best with four winners apiece
- Six of ten winners had a run under their belt in the current season
Betting Recommendations: Aidan at It Again?
At the end of our analysis, two runners earn a maximum of six trend points for trainer, finishing position, distance, rating, number of runs, and grade of win. Step forward, the Aidan O’Brien duo of Lake Victoria and Exactly. Given O’Brien’s record in the race, we are quite happy to keep things simple and side with this Frankel-sired duo.
Already a three-time Group 1 winner, including over this trip in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies’ Turf, the claims of Lake Victoria advertise themselves. 2lb clear of the field on ratings, she looks solid value at 7/2.
Exactly isn’t such an obvious challenger, but that is factored into the price. This filly has won only twice in eight starts but has compiled an impressively consistent record. Only finishing out of the frame once in those eight outings, her latest effort in a Group 1 saw her go down by just ½l in the Prix Marcel Boussac.
Recommended Win Bet: Lake Victoria @ 7/2 with Betfred
Recommended Each Way: Exactly @ 20/1 with BoyleSports
Paul Harrison
Falling in love with racing at a young age, Paul’s passion for sports and betting took him to Salford University, where he obtained a Bachelor’s degree in Business Economics with Gambling Studies. Having spent ten years in the employment of a leading bookmaker, Paul opted to go it alone and pursue his dream job as a freelance writer.
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