It’s Derby weekend this coming Saturday and Sunday. The Irish Derby lights up Sunday afternoon as Epsom hero Lambourn bids to add his name to the list of dual Derby winners. The betting suggests the Curragh showpiece may be a one-sided affair. However, things are rather different in the opening “Derby” of the weekend.
Taking place on the Tapeta track at Newcastle, the Class 2 handicap of the Northumberland Plate may fall some way short of Classic standard. Nevertheless, the 2m event is widely referred to as the “Pitmen's Derby” as a reference to the rich coal-mining history of the northeast.
Offering £150,000 in prize money, the highlight of the flat season at Newcastle is a key target for the leading staying handicappers. With no fewer than 61 remaining amongst the current entries, a maximum field of 20 seems certain in 2025.
61 runners represent a fair amount of form to wade through. Perhaps we can lessen the load by turning to the trends to identify the most likely contenders.
Here, we look at the nine editions of the race since the track switched from turf to Tapeta in 2015. We will filter the field through the strongest trends over the nine editions in question to identify our best bet for the 2025 Northumberland Plate.
Fate of the Favourite
Considering the big-field, competitive nature of the event, the favourite boasts an excellent recent record in the Northumberland Plate. Three of the nine editions in our sample were claimed by the market leader, handing favourite backers a profit of £6.50 to £1 level stakes. Four of the nine winners returned a single-figure SP, and four were between 12/1 and 16/1. Nicholas T provided the biggest shock over this period when coming home in front at odds of 33/1 in 2021.
4-7 The Preferred Age Window
While the Northumberland Plate is open to all runners aged three and older, no horse so young has come home in front since Archduke Ferdinand in 2001. At the other end of the spectrum, Nicholas T became the oldest winner in the modern era when landing the prize as a nine-year-old in 2021. Overall, eight of the nine winners in our sample fell into the 4-7 age bracket.
Focusing on the preferred age window in 2025 trims the field from 61 to 56. Not much of a start, but a start, nonetheless.
Arriving in Form
A solid display last time out is a significant positive in this event. Whilst only three of the winners arrived on the back of a win, no fewer than eight finished in the first two on their most recent racecourse appearance. The odd horse out was 2016 champ Antiquarium, who still ran well when fourth in the Cesarewitch on his most recent outing.
Focussing on those who finished first or second last time takes a huge chunk out of the field, leaving us with 12.
Up To This Level
Antiquarium (2016) and Caravan Of Hope (2020) arrived with no more than a Class 3 win to their name. Every other winner in our sample had already scored at Class 2 level or above, including Group 1 winner Trueshan, who defied a huge top weight of 10st8lb to claim the 2022 edition.
Narrowing our focus to those with a Class 2+ success leaves only one!
Moving from 62 to one in just three steps is most unusual for a race of this nature. Nevertheless, it makes the Andrew Balding-trained Spirit Mixer tough to ignore from a trends perspective.
Unexposed in the Sphere
Interestingly, whilst only one remains following the 7/9 "class of previous win" filter, we would come to a different result if we first applied the 7/9 trend relating to starts in an all-weather handicap.
The two most recent winners boasted plenty of experience in the sphere, but that snapped a seven-race streak of winners who arrived with four or fewer All-Weather handicap starts.
If we return to the stage where 12 runners remained and apply this filter, we are left with only seven – but Spirit Mixer is not one of them. However, the remaining seven are rated 87 or below, which is lower than any winner since the race switched to an all-weather surface in 2016. We will stick with Spirit Mixer.
For the curious, the seven who remained were Godsend, Blindedbythlights, Tryfan, Surrey Belle, Savrola, Tailorman, and Marbuzet.
Betting Recommendations: Third Time Lucky for Spirit Mixer
Besides being the last horse standing following the application of three of the strongest trends, there is much to like about the form claims of Spirit Mixer.
Last sighted running on well for second in a 2m handicap at Goodwood earlier in the month, a 1lb rise for that effort leaves him 1lb well in on the handicap here.
The second factor in his favour is his form in this very race. Back in 2022, he found only Trueshan too good when finishing half a length adrift of the Group 1 performer. That effort came off a mark of 97, and he gets in off 89 here.
His 9th of 20 effort in 2024 doesn’t read as well at first glance. However, he enjoyed no luck in running in his second crack at the Plate – receiving a hefty bump before finding himself trapped behind horses on the far rail. At 25/1 with Betfred, he rates an excellent value each-way punt.
- Recommended Win Bet: Spirit Mixer each way @ 25/1 with Betfred
Paul Harrison
Falling in love with racing at a young age, Paul’s passion for sports and betting took him to Salford University, where he obtained a Bachelor’s degree in Business Economics with Gambling Studies. Having spent ten years in the employment of a leading bookmaker, Paul opted to go it alone and pursue his dream job as a freelance writer.
