The Newmarket July Festival keeps the good times rolling on the racing front this week. Kicking off on Thursday, 10 July and concluding on Saturday, 12 July, the headquarters of flat racing lays on an outstanding three days of action.
Handicap fans have much to look forward to, including the Bunbury Cup, while the Superlative Stakes and July Stakes often provide an early glimpse of a future superstar. Friday afternoon’s Falmouth Stakes sees the fillies set the Group 1 ball rolling before the meeting reaches a crescendo with the headline act on the third and final day.
Making its debut at Newmarket back when Queen Victoria sat atop the throne in 1876, this fast and furious event is one of the standout sprint contests of the British season. With £600,000 up for grabs, winning connections receive a healthy financial injection to complement the Group 1-winning prestige.
The July Cup regularly attracts runners from further afield, with France and Japan striking in recent times. However, in 2025, we look set for an all-Anglo-Irish affair. Twenty-three runners remain in contention as the days count down to the big race – all of whom hail from a British or Irish yard.
Here, we look back at the standout stats and trends from the ten editions of the race between 2015 and 2024 and pick out our best bets for the 2025 July Cup.
Fate of the Favourite
Three of the ten editions in our sample were won by the favourite or joint favourite, representing a solid 30% strike rate. However, this wasn’t enough to secure a profit, with a £1 level stakes punt on the market leader returning a small loss of £1.25. Seven of the ten winners returned a single-figure SP, with the remaining three falling into the 11/1 - 14/1 bracket. Andrew Balding’s brilliant filly Alcohol Free caused the biggest surprise when bouncing back to form to claim the 2022 edition at 14/1.
Age of Winner: Not a Race for the Elder Statesmen
The July Cup is open to runners aged three and older. Shalfleet is the oldest winner in the history of the race, having landed the 1938 edition as a seven-year-old. No horse older than five has come home in front since Les Arcs in 2006. All ten renewals in our sample were won by a runner aged three or four.
Proven at the Trip
Our second 10/10 trend concerns the race distance. When looking at the ten editions in our sample, the result aligned with expectations for such a prestigious event. All ten winners boasted at least one 6f win on their CV.
112+ Rating Required
Having kicked off on a high with the 121-rated Muhaarar in 2015, the average rating of the winner in our sample inevitably trended downward. The average rating of the winner over this period was 116.3, with all ten winners arriving with an official rating of at least 112.
Group 1 Experience an Advantage
Oxted claimed the 2020 edition for Roger Teal on his Group 1 debut. However, the horse affectionately known as Fenton was the exception to the rule. The nine other winners had lined up at least once in Group 1 company.
Group 2+ Winners Favoured
50% of the winners in our sample had not only run in a Group 1 event but had come home in front at the highest level. A further four had suggested they might be up to the task, with success in Group 2 company.
Royal Route to the Race
There is a strong Royal Ascot flavour when looking at the most common routes to this race. The three-year-old only event of the Commonwealth Cup leads the way, followed by the Day 5 highlight of the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes. Add in US Navy Flag, who dropped in trip from the St James’s Palace Stakes, and seven of the ten winners in our sample arrived on the back of an appearance at the Royal Meeting.
Betting Recommendations: Star to Strike Late and Big Run from O’Brien Challenger
We have a solid cast of contenders among the current entries, with all bar Aramram matching at least 50% of our key trends. However, only two score a perfect 6/6, leaving us with a straight choice between:
- Inisherin, 7/1 with Betfred: Having landed the 2024 Commonwealth Cup in fine style, this Kevin Ryan star started favourite for this event. He finished only fifth last year before disappointing in the Haydock Sprint Cup on his final start as a three-year-old. A win in the 1865 Duke Of York Clipper Stakes suggested he may be back on track, but had few excuses when seventh in the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes last time.
- Starlust, 25/1 with Betfred: Ralph Beckett sprinter who caused a big shock in the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint. Zero from three since, but went down by just 1½l when finishing fourth in the King Charles III Stakes. Career high came over 5f but gets this trip well and rates a solid contender.
At the prices, Starlust is our clear pick of the 6/6 runners. However, given his late running style, he may be a hostage to fortune as to whether the gaps open in time. As such, it makes sense to add a second string to our bow with one of the 5/6 candidates:
- Iberian, 20/1 with Betfred: Steadily dropped in trip following a no-show in the 2024 2000 Guineas. Did well to finish fifth in the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes last time when racing away from the main action.
- Jasour, 25/1 with Betfred: Won the July Stakes over this course and distance in 2023 and finished sixth in the 2024 edition of this, when not helping his cause by missing the break. Spotted doing all his best work late to finish just behind Iberian last time.
- Kind Of Blue, 25/1 with Betfred: Landed the big sprint on Champions Day last season following a narrow second in the Haydock Sprint Cup. He has a chance on those efforts but performed way below his best in two outings so far this season.
- Rogue Lightning, 33/1 with Betfred: Wathnan Racing’s runner has won over this course and distance, albeit in a lowly Class 4 Novice event back in 2022. Pick of his Group 1 efforts came when fifth in the 2023 Prix de l’Abbaye and there is a suspicion this trip may stretch him at the highest level.
- Believing, 8/1 with Betfred: Beaten in a filly-only Listed event on her only previous start over course and distance but significantly improved since that 2022 contest. She ended her wait for a Group 1 in Meydan this year but finished behind Starlust at Ascot with no obvious excuses.
- Flora Of Bermuda, 9/2 with Betfred: Also going in the Wathnan Racing silks, this Andrew Balding filly has yet to strike in Group 1 company but arrives in excellent form. Second in the Duke Of York on her seasonal return, she finished best of the British and Irish runners when third in the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes.
- Whistlejacket, 7/1 with Betfred: Aidan O’Brien’s best chance in the race comes in the shape of last year’s easy July Stakes winner. Only sixth in the Commonwealth Cup last time but enjoyed no luck in running and finished to good effect once in the clear.
Of those at big prices, Jasour may be coming to the boil at the right time. However, Whistlejacket is the horse we are most reluctant to leave out of our staking plan. The fancy prices have gone but 7/1 is still a fair enough price considering O’Brien has claimed two of the last seven editions of this.
- Recommended Bet: Whistlejacket @ 7/1 with Betfred
- Recommended each way Bet: Starlust @ 25/1 with Betfred
Falling in love with racing at a young age, Paul’s passion for sports and betting took him to Salford University, where he obtained a Bachelor’s degree in Business Economics with Gambling Studies. Having spent ten years in the employment of a leading bookmaker, Paul opted to go it alone and pursue his dream job as a freelance writer.
Paul Harrison
