There are five Classics contained within the British flat season, only two of which are officially restricted to fillies – although, in reality, fillies rarely, if ever, run in either the 2000 Guineas or Derby.
For the fairer sex of the equine world, the Classic campaign usually plots a course from the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket to the Oaks at Epsom and on to a shot at the colts in the Doncaster St. Leger.
Of the fillies’ events, the Oaks boasts the honour of having been with us the longest. Established in 1779, the 1m4f event is one year older than the Derby over the same course and distance and lies behind only the St. Leger in terms of longevity.
Taking place one day before the Derby, on a Friday afternoon in late May/early June each year, the Oaks is the most prestigious fillies’ only mile-and-a-half event held anywhere in the world. Offering £550,000 (2025) in prize money, the contest bestows considerable financial rewards upon winning connections and affords the winner an indelible place in the annals of racing history.
For us punters, the Oaks provides a thrilling opportunity to witness the most regally bred performers from the biggest yards locking horns at one of the most iconic tracks in the sport. A fine spectacle made all the better if you happen to back the winner. But what does it take to prevail?
Here, we look back at the ten editions between 2015 and 2024, highlight the standout stats and trends, and pick out our best bet for the 2025 Betfred Oaks.
Fate of the Favourite
Only two of the ten editions in our sample were won by the market leader, handing favourite backers a loss of £6 to £1 level stakes. However, with nine of the 10 winners returning a single-figure SP, outright shocks were few and far between. The big boil-over came in 2015 when Qualify bounced back to form to score at 50/1.
Recent Run an Advantage
Recent evidence suggests that fillies don’t win the Oaks on the back of a significant break. Qualify (2015), Minding (2016), and Tuesday (2022) all came home in front less than two weeks after appearing in the Irish 1000 Guineas, whilst all ten winners had run within the last 34 days.
99+ Rating
2016 heroine Minding tops the ratings over the past ten years, having arrived at Epsom with a mark of 119. At the other end of the scale, the maiden Forever Together had run to a rating of “only” 99 before her 2018 success. With all ten winners having achieved a mark of at least 99, we will use this as our next key stat.
The Mighty Galileo
Legendary stallion Galileo achieved his standout moment on the track in the 2001 Epsom Derby and has exerted an incredible influence on the fillies’ event over the same course and distance. All ten winners in our sample had a strong Galileo influence in their pedigree.
Top Trainers
The past ten editions of this event have been shared among just three trainers, with nine of ten falling to either Ballydoyle supremo Aidan O'Brien or John Gosden – the most recent of Gosden’s wins coming in partnership with his son Thady. These results suggest punters wouldn’t go too far wrong by focussing solely on fillies hailing from the O’Brien or Gosden operations.
Solid Effort Last Time
Logic suggests that one of the hottest 1m4f events of the year is more likely to fall to an in-form contender than a runner who posted a poor performance on their most recent appearance. The results in our sample support this theory. Except for the 2015 shock winner Qualify, every winner had finished in the first two on their most recent racecourse appearance.
Stamina Considerations
The fact that only two winners had previously scored over a distance close to the 1m4f Oaks trip isn’t too surprising, as there are very few quality 1m4f events before the Oaks. With eight of ten winners having won over a mile, this seems the most sensible cut-off point for our distance-related trends point.
Pattern Class Performer
Of the ten winners in our sample, only Minding (2016) and Love (2020) had previously scored at the highest level. However, eight of ten had at least hinted at their potential with a success at Listed level or above.
Betting Recommendations: Minnie to Master Talented Stablemates
Recent results suggest that the Oaks is most likely to fall to the most successful trainer in the history of the race. Those considering supporting Aidan O’Brien in 2025 will find encouragement in our trends results. Four fillies score a maximum of seven points – all four of whom hail from Ballydoyle. But which of the quartet should we side with?
- Giselle, 5/1 with Betfred: Behind Whirl in the Staffordstown Stud Stakes last season but returned with a nine-length romp in the Lingfield Oaks Trial. Hard to rate that win in a three-runner affair too highly, but she’s beautifully bred and may have more to offer.
- Lake Victoria, 12/1 with Betfred: One of the stars of 2024, Lake Victoria bounced back from disappointment in the 2000 Guineas to claim the Irish version of that event in sizzling style. Supremely talented but expected to head straight to Royal Ascot rather than tackling this assignment.
- Minnie Hauk, 4/1 with Betfred: Broke her maiden at the second time of asking in a low-key two-year-old season but plunged straight into the Cheshire Oaks on her seasonal return. There was much to like in that 1l win, particularly as the Frankel filly is expected to come forward considerably for the outing.
- Whirl, 6/1 with Betfred: A Group 3 winner as a juvenile, Whirl came up short at that level on her seasonal return but bounced back with a 5½l romp in the Musidora Stakes last time. Initial comments from the owners suggested the Prix de Diane may be the more likely target, but plans appear to have changed, with Whirl expected to form part of a three-pronged attack.
With Lake Victoria likely to head elsewhere, this comes down to a choice between the three recent trial winners. In all honesty, it is incredibly tough to split the trio. However, we just favour the improving Minnie Hauk, who appears the most likely to have more talent in the tank than she has displayed to date.
- Recommended Win Bet: Minnie Hauk to win @ 4/1 with Betfred
Paul Harrison
Falling in love with racing at a young age, Paul’s passion for sports and betting took him to Salford University, where he obtained a Bachelor’s degree in Business Economics with Gambling Studies. Having spent ten years in the employment of a leading bookmaker, Paul opted to go it alone and pursue his dream job as a freelance writer.
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