Hot on the heels of the opening Queen Anne Stakes, Day 1 at the Royal meeting presents a second top class 1m event. This time, the action switches from the straight mile to the round course as the cream of the three-year-old colts lock horns.
First run in 1834 and named in honour of a Royal residence, this £650,000 contest is edging ever closer to its 200th anniversary. Given the conditions of the event, the St. James’s Palace Stakes invariably attracts runners from the English and Irish 2000 Guineas and regularly sees a head-to-head clash between the Newmarket and Curragh Classic winners.
The iron horse Giant’s Causeway, Kingman, Henrythenavigator, and the incomparable Frankel have all blazed a trail to St. James’s Palace Stakes glory in the 21st century, indicating the quality of performer it often takes to prevail.
Class aside, what else should we look for when seeking the winner? Here, we turn to the trends for assistance, highlighting the standout stats from the 2015-2024 editions and picking out our best bet for the 2025 St. James’s Palace Stakes.
Fate of the Favourite
Four of the ten editions in our sample fell to the market leader, representing a solid 40% strike-rate, and handing favourite backers a profit of £1.19 to £1 level stakes. Nine of the ten winners returned a single-figure SP, with the only “shock” provided by 10/1 chance Circus Maximus in 2019.
Race Fitness a Must
No horse in our sample claimed the St. James’s Palace Stakes on their seasonal return. With all ten winners having appeared at the track within the last 50 days, this looks like a solid place to start in awarding our trend points.
1m Win Also Essential
Given the quality of the field the St. James’s Palace Stakes attracts, you would expect most of those lining up to have shown winning form at the distance. Focussing on the race winners in our sample, all ten arrived with at least one 1m win on their CV.
Proven in Pattern Company
An impressive 60% of the winners in our sample had already scored in Group 1 company, while nine out of ten had secured an event at Listed level or above. The only exception was 2020 winner Palace Pier, who arrived with no more than a Class 2 success to his name.
Arriving in Form
2019 winner Circus Maximus managed only sixth on his previous outing in the Derby. Every other winner in our sample finished in the first two last time, including six who arrived on the back of a win.
Classic Contenders
Winners have arrived at the St. James’s Palace Stakes by several routes. Palace Pier stands out in stepping up from a Class 2 handicap success at Newcastle to land this prize. The other nine winners had a more conventional journey to Ascot. The key takeaway here is that eight of the past ten winners lined up in a British or Irish Classic on their most recent racecourse appearance.
116+ Rating Preferred
The St. James’s Palace Stakes experienced a notable dip in the pre-race rating of the winner between 2018 and 2020, with Without Parole, Circus Maximus, and Palace Pier arriving with relatively low 109-110 ratings. However, every other winner in our sample had already reached a mark of 116 or above.
The Galileo Effect
Last, but not least, we find another race in which legendary sire Galileo has made a significant impact. With eight of the ten winners featuring Galileo in their semi-immediate pedigree, our final point goes to those with the blood of the greatest stallion of all time coursing through their veins.
Betting Recommendations: Artist to Lead the Way
First and second in the 2000 Guineas, Ruling Court and Field Of Gold emerge as the only two runners who score 6/7 on our key trends. Both runners fall down on the Galileo influence but are otherwise perfect.
Determining which of the two to back largely comes down to how you view the 2025 Newmarket Classic. Was Ruling Court the best horse on the day? Or would Field Of Gold have won if kicking for home a fraction earlier? We fell into the latter camp on the day and we haven't been discouraged since, with Field Of Gold thrashing a quality field on his next outing in the Irish 2000 Guineas. The John & Thady Gosden runner looks like the best three-year-old miler in training to our eyes, and we will stick with him here.
Ruling Court is the obvious alternative. However, at a general 3/1, he doesn’t offer much in the way of each way value. Instead, we will turn to those who score 5/7 on our key trends for our each way selection, namely:
- Henri Matisse, 9/2 with Betfred: A winner of six of eight starts, including two Group 1 events. He showed an excellent turn of foot to claim the French 2000 Guineas last time.
- Hotazhell, 20/1 with Betfred: Landed the Group 1 Futurity Trophy as a juvenile and finished a fine third in the Irish 2000 on his return. Looks like a strong stayer rather than a quickener at this trip, which may make him vulnerable on the round course.
- Officer, 50/1 with BetFred: Overlooking anything from the Aidan O’Brien operation is dangerous. However, this one looked to hold every chance in the Irish 2000 Guineas, only to fade into seventh in the final furlong. The round course places less emphasis on stamina, which boosts his chance of clinging on for a place, but he likely needs to improve significantly.
- Shadow Of Light, 14/1 with Betfred: Dual Group 1 winner at two who went down by just a length when third in the 2000 Guineas on his return. He passed most of the field to lead at the furlong pole that day, only to be worn down close home. Around a bend and on potentially quicker ground, his turn of foot could be a potent weapon.
Henry Matisse and Shadow Of Light are the two to stand out from the above quartet. With the latter trading at around three times the price of the former, we will side with the Godolphin runner. Whilst favourite for the Commonwealth Cup, Charlie Appleby’s comments in the immediate aftermath of the Guineas suggested this race was a likely target
- Recommended Win Bet: Field Of Gold @ Evs with Betfred
- Recommended Win Bet: Shadow Of Light @ 14/1 with Betfred
Paul Harrison
Falling in love with racing at a young age, Paul’s passion for sports and betting took him to Salford University, where he obtained a Bachelor’s degree in Business Economics with Gambling Studies. Having spent ten years in the employment of a leading bookmaker, Paul opted to go it alone and pursue his dream job as a freelance writer.
