Home to the Grade 1 Challow Novices Hurdle and huge Coral Gold Cup Handicap, Newbury Racecourse is well known for quality National Hunt action. Whilst many jumps' tracks draw stumps for the Summer months, Newbury merely switches codes, and the quality keeps on coming.
The Berkshire venue is home to no fewer than 12 events rated at Group 3 level or above, with the Group 1 Lockinge Stakes the clear headline act, as a field of crack performers battle over the straight mile.
Held in its current form since 1995, this £400,000 event is the key early-season target for the crème de la crème of the older miler division and invariably attracts a stellar cast.
Nine remain in contention in 2025, including the 2000 Guineas, Irish 2000 Guineas, and Irish 1000 Guineas winners from 2024. We look set for a cracking edition of this prestigious event, but who will come out on top?
Here, we look back at the ten editions of the race between 2014 and 2024 (no race in 2020), highlight the strongest stats and trends, and pick out our top tip for the 2025 Lockinge Stakes.
Fate of the Favourite
The market leader boasts an excellent recent record in the Lockinge Stakes, with seven of the ten editions in our sample falling to the favourite. There were a few short prices in the mix – notably 4/9 chance Baeed in 2022 – but a £1 level stakes punt on the jolly still returned a £5.91 profit. Nine of the ten winners returned a single figure SP, with 22/1 chance Audience causing the biggest shock in 2024.
114+ Rating Required
Our ten-year sample began in style with the 125-rated Olympic Glory claiming the 2014 edition. Palace Pier and Baeed matched that figure, but overall, the average rating line slipped from just above 121 to just below 119. With all ten winners arriving with a rating of 114 or higher, we will use this as our first key trend.
Distance Win Key
Claiming a Group 1 event over 1m having never previously won over the distance sounds like a tough task on paper. So it has proved in practice, with all bar shock 2024 winner Audience boasting at least one win over the mile trip ahead of this event.
Solid Effort Last Time
Four of the winners in our sample were making their seasonal return, with the other six having at least one outing in the current campaign. Whenever their latest outing happened to be, most had posted a reasonably positive effort. Only two of our winners arrived on the back of a win, but nine of the ten had at least finished in the top four on their most recent racecourse appearance.
Up To This Class
Audience (2024) had never won above Group 3 before landing this, whilst Mustashry (2019) had only a pair of Group 2 wins to his name. Every other winner had scored at least once in Group 1 company.
Four Year Olds to the Fore
Initially open to three-year-olds, the Lockinge Stakes has been restricted to runners aged four and older since 1995. Mustashry became the latest of five six-year-olds to come home in front in 2019. No horse older than six has landed the Lockinge. Four-year-olds have dominated in recent times, with eight of the ten winners in our sample falling into that age group.
Betting Recommendations: Tamfana Has the Talent to Strike
Focusing on the key trends doesn’t identify a single standout contender in 2024. However, if we focus solely on those who score 5/5 on our key stats, we can reduce the field from nine to four:
- Notable Speech, 4/1 with Betfred: Form figures in Group 1 events over this trip on good or good to firm ground, read 171. That 7 in the St. James’s Palace Stakes remains tough to explain, but 2000 Guineas and Sussex Stakes wins are up with the best form on offer.
- Rosallion, 13/8 with Betfred: Another with excellent Group 1, 1m form figures – in this case 211. 1½l behind Notable Speech in the 2000 Guineas, but 6l clear of that rival in the St. James’s Palace Stakes. Talent is not in doubt, but missed the back end of 2024 and needs to show no ill effects following time out with a respiratory infection.
- Fallen Angel, 14/1 with Betfred: The first of two fillies to make our shortlist hails from the yard of Karl Burke. Beaten as favourite in the 2024 1000 Guineas, she bounced back in style to claim the Irish version of that contest. Zero from two since, but ran well in the Matron Stakes and Prix de l’Opera. Talented filly, but this is her first crack against the colts.
- Tamfana, 11/2 with Boylesports: This David Menusier filly looked like an unlucky loser in last year’s 1000 Guineas and also hit the crossbar in the Prix De Diane. However, her turn finally arrived with an impressive 2l victory in the Sun Chariot Stakes, with 12l Middleton Fillies’ Stakes winner See The Fire back in third.
Rosallion and Notable Speech share the top rating of 122 and boast obvious claims. However, the 116-rated Tamfana is right on their heels once the 5lb fillies allowance is taken into account. Only beaten 1¾l when attempting to concede weight to the males in the bet365 Mile last time, she is better off under these conditions and should strip fitter for that seasonal return.
- Recommended Win Bet: Tamfana to win @ 11/2 with BoyleSports
Paul Harrison
Falling in love with racing at a young age, Paul’s passion for sports and betting took him to Salford University, where he obtained a Bachelor’s degree in Business Economics with Gambling Studies. Having spent ten years in the employment of a leading bookmaker, Paul opted to go it alone and pursue his dream job as a freelance writer.
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