Course Conditions Set Stage for Competitive Action
Newcastle serves up six races this Wednesday afternoon on ground that should suit most types. The official going of Good, Good to Firm in places tells only half the story – crucially, watering commenced at 5am, meaning there's freshness in the surface that wasn't there when the going stick readings were taken.
I've seen this scenario countless times. Early morning watering on already good ground creates the perfect cocktail – enough juice for the stamina types without becoming testing for the speedier sorts. Expect the surface to ride a touch easier than the official description suggests, which could play into the hands of a few I'll highlight shortly.
The Newcastle racecard offers decent variety, from mares' novice hurdles through to a marathon three-mile-plus handicap hurdle to close proceedings. Prize money totals a respectable £66,500 across the six contests, with the feature Hugh Michelmore Memorial leading the way at £15,000.
Hugh Michelmore Memorial the Day's Feature
The 3m1f170y Hugh Michelmore Memorial Handicap Chase (15:53) stands out as the afternoon's centrepiece. Just five runners, but what quality – headed by the Dan Skelton-trained Snipe, who carries top weight off a mark of 128.
Snipe's record speaks volumes. This nine-year-old has been knocking on the door of a big pot like this for months, and the combination of Harry Skelton in the saddle and that freshened ground could be the key. The Skelton team know exactly how to place their horses, and bringing Snipe here rather than somewhere more obvious suggests confidence.
Time To Bite (127) represents the main danger. At eleven, he's getting on, but Chris Honour's charge has been thereabouts in similar company. The 'C' next to his name tells us he's won at Newcastle before – never underestimate local knowledge, especially over this stamina-sapping trip.
Blackjack Magic completes a fascinating triumvirate at the head of the weights. Another eleven-year-old, but Sam Twiston-Davies takes the ride for Anthony Honeyball, and this fellow has bags of experience in this grade.
Mares Take Centre Stage in Opener
The Stock Exe Building Supplies Mares' Novice Hurdle (14:53) kicks things off with ten runners, though the form book makes for interesting reading. Lady Kara stands out immediately – she's the only runner with an official rating (105), which suggests she's already shown enough on the track to warrant respect.
Charlie Hammond takes the ride for the Dr Richard Newland and Jamie Insole partnership. That's a combination that knows how to prepare a novice, and having a rating when most of your rivals are unrated is a significant advantage in a race like this.
Keep an eye on the Anthony Honeyball trio – Frenati, Lady Litigator, and later in the day, other runners. When a trainer runs multiple horses on the same card, it usually means they're confident about their chances. James Best partners both Amhranai and has several other rides on the card, suggesting he's been booked for quality rather than quantity.
Novice Chase Provides Opportunity
The Totnes and Bridgetown Novices' Handicap Chase (15:23) over 2m4f216y looks a cracking puzzle. It's A Breeze heads the weights for Paul Nicholls – always a trainer to respect when sending horses north of the border from his Ditcheat base.
However, I'm drawn to Thickthorn Tom for the Skelton team. Rated 85, he gets a handy weight allowance, and the partnership between Dan and Harry Skelton has been in red-hot form this season. The six-year-old is at an ideal age for this type of contest, and the good ground should suit his style.
Lorcan Murtagh has picked up some decent rides on the card, including Georges Street here. When a conditional jockey gets multiple quality bookings, it's worth paying attention – trainers don't book riders for sentiment.
Marathon to Close Proceedings
The Racing Foundation Supports Autism in Racing Handicap Hurdle (17:30) provides a stern test of stamina at 3m2f105y. Just five runners, but each brings something different to the table.
Clotilda tops the weights for Paul Nicholls, and there's something appealing about a five-year-old taking on older horses over this marathon trip. Young legs often tell in the closing stages of these extreme tests, and Freddie Keighley's claim could prove valuable.
Sea Invasion brings course and distance experience, which counts for plenty when the tank's running empty in the final furlong. The eight-year-old has seen it all before, and that experience could prove decisive if the pace is strong early on.
Ones to Watch
Three selections stand out for me today. Snipe in the Hugh Michelmore Memorial looks overpriced for a horse of his calibre in what's essentially a match between the top three in the weights. The ground and trip should suit perfectly.
Lady Kara in the opener has that crucial rating advantage, and the Newland/Insole team don't send horses this far north without good reason.
Finally, Thickthorn Tom in the novice chase appeals as a progressive type for a trainer who's been firing in winners. The weight allowance and good ground combination could see him outrun his odds.
The watered ground adds an extra dimension to proceedings – expect it to ride more kindly than the official description suggests, which should favour horses with stamina to burn in the longer contests.
