Perfect Conditions Set Up Newcastle Thriller
Well now, what have we here? Newcastle serves up a proper feast of National Hunt action this Wednesday afternoon, and by the looks of that going report, we're in for a treat. That 14mm of overnight rain has worked wonders, easing most of the track to Good with just pockets of Good to Firm remaining. It's the kind of ground that'll have the shrewd trainers licking their lips – testing enough to sort the wheat from the chaff, but not so soft that it turns into a slog.
Seven races on the Newcastle racecard today, ranging from a maiden hurdle opener to a bumper finale. The feature attraction has to be that £15,000 Clearance Handicap Hurdle at 4:30, where we've got ourselves a proper battle brewing between some seriously talented sorts. But more on that beauty in a moment – let's start from the top, shall we?
Opening Maiden Sets the Tone
The 2:30 maiden hurdle kicks us off, and while it might not set the pulse racing on paper, there's value to be found if you know where to look. Gavin Sheehan takes the ride on Premier Fantasy for Nick Scholfield, and that's a combination that knows how to get a job done. The seven-year-old might be unrated, but sometimes experience counts for more than fancy numbers on the page.
Keep an eye on Yellow Card too – that 104 rating suggests there's ability there, and Sean Bowen doesn't travel north for the craic. The four-year-old will appreciate this better ground after some disappointing efforts on heavy going earlier in the season. French Diablo represents the Comley yard with David Bass in the saddle, and four-year-olds can improve rapidly over hurdles once they get the hang of it.
Feature Race: Howth Ready to Roar
Right, let's get to the meat and potatoes – that 4:30 handicap hurdle where the serious money will be flying about. Howth sits pretty at the top of the weights with a 126 rating, and fair play to him, he's earned every point of it. Tom Lacey's charge is a course and distance winner, which on this track is worth its weight in gold. Stan Sheppard knows this fellow inside out, and that combination has been profitable to follow this season.
But don't go backing the jolly just yet – Centara from the Paul Nicholls stable is no mug at all. Rated 122 and also a course and distance winner, this eight-year-old has been knocking on the door all season. Freddie Keighley takes the ride, and when Nicholls sends one north, you sit up and take notice. The slight drop in grade could be just what the doctor ordered.
American Land represents the Tizzard clan with Brendan Powell aboard. Another course and distance winner, this fellow thrives on this type of going and the two-mile trip suits him down to the ground. At 118, he's getting plenty of weight from the top two, and that could make all the difference in a tight finish.
Ground Conditions Favor the Experienced
This Good ground is absolutely crucial to how this race will pan out. Howth has shown his best form on similar conditions, and his stamina reserves should kick in up that Newcastle hill. Centara, meanwhile, has been crying out for this type of surface after struggling on the heavy stuff through the winter months.
The younger pair, Morning Mayhem and Arctic Voyage, both carry 112 ratings, but I'm not convinced either has the tactical speed to cope with what's likely to be a strongly-run affair. This ground will bring out the best in the older, more experienced campaigners.
Mares' Marathon and Supporting Cast
The 4:00 mares' handicap hurdle over three miles and two furlongs is a proper test of stamina, and Porter In The Park looks the most likely to stay the trip. Emma Lavelle's nine-year-old is a course and distance winner with a 116 rating, and Cameron Johnstone-Baker knows how to get her settled early and produce her late.
Earlier in the afternoon, that novice chase at 3:00 looks a bit thin on numbers with Franigane a non-runner, but Dunkerque for Jennie Candlish could be worth a look. The six-year-old is rated 118 and Conor O'Farrell has been riding with confidence lately.
The staying novice chase at 3:30 over three miles is a different kettle of fish entirely. Kenzo des Bruyeres tops the weights for the Bowen team, but at this trip, anything can happen. Isle of Sark is a course winner for Micky Hammond, and Alice Stevens has been getting plenty of winners this season.
Late Card Value and Bumper Finale
Don't overlook that competitive handicap hurdle at 5:00 – twelve runners over two miles makes for a proper cavalry charge. Marhaba The Champ and Zambezi Fix head the weights on 100, but in a race like this, you want something with a bit of pace and a handy weight. Get The Value is a course and distance winner rated 96, and Kielan Woods is a canny pilot who knows how to time a challenge.
The bumper finale at 5:30 is always worth a punt, and Matty's Mate for Paul Nicholls with Sam Twiston-Davies aboard has to be respected. When Nicholls runs one in a northern bumper, there's usually a reason for it. Callum Pritchard has a couple of chances with Mr Sunny looking interesting for Barry Murphy's yard.
Best Bets and Ones to Watch
Right then, let me cut through the waffle and give you the straight goods. **Howth** in the 4:30 feature race is the solid each-way play – course winner, distance winner, loves the ground, and Tom Lacey has him spot on. **Centara** in the same race is the value alternative if you want a bigger price.
**Porter In The Park** in the mares' race looks a confident selection over the marathon trip, while **Get The Value** could be the surprise package in that competitive 5:00 handicap. For the bumper, **Matty's Mate** gets the nod based purely on the Nicholls factor.
The ground conditions are absolutely key today – this Good surface will suit the older, more experienced types who've been waiting for firmer conditions. It should be a cracking afternoon's sport, and with a bit of luck and good judgment, a profitable one too. Sláinte!
